The Mariners have suffered via a reasonably horrible stretch over the past 5 or so weeks. After blowing a 10-game lead within the AL West throughout a 24-game span — the quickest that any crew has ever surrendered such a big divisional lead — they enter play Friday a sport behind the first-place Astros and three.5 video games out of the ultimate AL Wild Card spot. Over their final 30 video games, they’ve gone 10-20 and have scored a measly 3.4 runs per sport whereas their pitching workers has allowed the fewest runs within the American League. Issues obtained worse earlier this week, after they had been swept by the Angels and misplaced each Julio Rodríguez and J.P. Crawford to accidents. Rodríguez sprained his proper ankle and there’s no timetable for his return; Crawford, who fractured his proper pinky, is predicted to overlook 4-6 weeks. Even earlier than these two core items of the beleaguered lineup landed on the injured record, Seattle desperately wanted an infusion of expertise onto their roster.
With that want exacerbated by these two accidents, the M’s wasted little or no time making their first addition forward of Tuesday’s commerce deadline: On Thursday night time, they acquired outfielder Randy Arozarena from the Rays. In trade, Tampa Bay acquired minor league outfielder Aidan Smith (40 FV), right-handed pitcher Brody Hopkins (45+ FV), and a participant to be named later. Dan Szymborski put collectively a hypothetical model of this commerce only a few days in the past and nailed all of the broad strokes: The Mariners obtained the offensive improve they wanted and the Rays obtained some actually fascinating prospects that they will now sculpt.
The previous AL Rookie of the Yr and All-Star obtained off to a agonizingly sluggish begin to the season; via the primary month of play, he was slashing .143/.220/.241 with three residence runs, a strikeout charge only a hair beneath 30%, and a 37 wRC+. He began to tug himself out of his hunch in Could (104 wRC+) however was nonetheless underperforming. Since June 1, although, he’s been one of many hottest hitters within the league, placing collectively a .284/.397/.507 slash line with seven residence runs and a 161 wRC+ throughout 179 plate appearances.
As Jay Jaffe famous again in April when he checked in on Arozarena’s woes, after which once more throughout his substitute degree killers sequence final week, “Rays hitting coach Chad Mottola had expressed the assumption that Arozarena’s want to make use of the entire area extra usually, in an effort to make himself a good higher hitter, could have backfired.”
That change in method is perhaps associated to his diminished contact charge early within the season, significantly on pitches within the strike zone.
His rebound in June and July aligns fairly clearly along with his potential to place the bat on the ball when pitchers go away their pitches over the plate. And fortunately, virtually all of his different plate self-discipline metrics are both improved or inside vary of his established norms.
Randy Arozarena, Plate Self-discipline
| Yr | BB% | Ok% | Swing% | O-Swing% | Contact% | Z-Contact% | SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 9.3% | 28.1% | 44.1% | 25.1% | 69.1% | 76.5% | 13.6% |
| 2022 | 7.1% | 24.2% | 46.0% | 30.3% | 73.4% | 80.0% | 12.2% |
| 2023 | 12.2% | 23.9% | 43.0% | 26.3% | 72.5% | 79.0% | 11.9% |
| 2024 | 11.1% | 24.8% | 42.4% | 25.8% | 71.8% | 77.6% | 11.9% |
| Earlier than June 1 | 10.9% | 28.7% | 42.4% | 25.5% | 67.1% | 73.4% | 13.9% |
| Since June 1 | 11.5% | 19.5% | 42.3% | 26.1% | 78.2% | 83.6% | 9.1% |
He’s nonetheless making glorious swing choices on the plate — his SEAGER is within the 84th percentile amongst all batters this 12 months — and his batted ball metrics are as stable as ever. That two-month funk to start out the season is dragging his total offensive line means down, however make no mistake, it definitely seems as if Arozarena has put these struggles behind him.
He’ll instantly slot into the center of the Mariners lineup as their common left fielder and can give them a potent bat to assist defend Rodríguez at any time when he returns whereas offering dynamic run manufacturing himself. Maybe extra importantly for Seattle, Arozarena received’t attain free company till 2027; he’s making $8.1 million this season, his second 12 months of arbitration. The group has developed a largely homegrown rotation that has emerged as among the best within the majors, however over the previous few years, the Mariners have been reluctant to make use of free company to enhance their lineup. That makes it crucial for the entrance workplace to be aggressive on the commerce market to accumulate affect batters who can assist the Mariners not simply this season however all through this aggressive window, earlier than their group of pitchers both breaks down or turns into too costly to maintain collectively. Arozarena boosts this lineup now and sooner or later.
For the Rays, this commerce comes at an fascinating time. They’re truly solely a half sport behind the M’s within the AL Wild Card standings and their pitching workers is getting quite a bit more healthy. Shane Baz simply got here again from his Tommy John rehab earlier this month, Jeffrey Springs must be returning to the majors inside per week or so, and Drew Rasmussen isn’t that far behind Springs. Tampa Bay has been hovering on the sting of the AL playoff image for practically the complete season, however a late-season surge wouldn’t have been out of the query. By shifting Arozarena at this level within the season, the Rays have indicated that they’re extra involved in guaranteeing they’re arrange effectively for the longer term than in hoping for a long-shot playoff run over the following few months.
The timing additionally says quite a bit about what they consider the prospects they’re getting on this deal. Arozarena’s escalating wage now that he’s in the course of his arbitration seasons had made him an apparent commerce candidate this 12 months, however the Rays might have waited till the offseason to maneuver him in the event that they didn’t just like the gamers they had been getting in return. That they acted now signifies they favored this bundle sufficient to pounce on it 5 days earlier than the commerce deadline. On the very recent Mariners prospect record that Eric Longenhagen lately put collectively, Hopkins was ranked seventh and Smith twenty first.
In a Seattle group that’s infamous for serving to pitchers turn into the most effective variations of themselves, Longenhagen known as Hopkins probably the most thrilling pitching prospect within the system. He’s a transformed outfielder who was chosen within the sixth spherical of final 12 months’s newbie draft and continues to be very new to pitching. He’s obtained a low-slot launch with some deception in his mechanics, and that arm slot creates a ton of trip and life on his mid-90s heater and provides him a wipeout slider that flashes plus. He nonetheless must develop a 3rd pitch to flesh out his repertoire to achieve his ceiling as a mid-rotation starter, however even when he doesn’t, he seems to have a reasonably good flooring as a two-pitch high-leverage reliever. He’s already 22 years previous, which makes him fairly previous for Single-A, the place the Mariners had positioned him of their group, however as he positive aspects improvement time as a pitcher, he ought to transfer shortly up the ladder.
As for Smith, he was Seattle’s fourth-round choose in final 12 months’s draft and has hit very effectively in his transient skilled profession. A prep choice out of Texas, he’s an athletic outfielder with loads of velocity to stay in heart area. He was slashing .284/.402/.470 at Single-A Modesto, and it appears like he had made the mandatory changes to his swing to enhance his really feel for contact. He’s a methods away from the majors, however his bodily projection and profitable begin to his minor league profession had been each intriguing sufficient for Tampa Bay to take an opportunity on him.
Even with Arozarena within the fold, the Mariners shouldn’t be performed including to their roster. Their offensive points are too deep to be solved by one participant. Even after shifting Hopkins and Smith, Seattle has sufficient extremely regarded prospects obtainable to maneuver for one more huge splash. They’ve been linked to Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. over the previous few days — each could be important upgrades to the black holes the Mariners are working out at second and first base this 12 months. Given the Mariners’ place within the standings and the state of their roster and farm system, this transfer for Arozarena mustn’t preclude them from persevering with to enhance their offense over the following few days.
