Saturday’s Grade 2 Ainsworth Turf Dash Stakes at Kentucky Downs hasn’t but achieved Grade 1 standing, however that could be coming. With its wealthy purse of $2 million (together with $1 million from the Kentucky Thoroughbred Growth Fund), the grass sprint over three-quarters of a mile has drawn a stellar discipline for its 2024 renewal.
Certainly, the horses entered within the Ainsworth Turf Dash just about symbolize a “who’s who” of top-notch turf sprinters from round the USA. There’s even an achieved British raider within the entries. Whoever prevails will earn a “Win and You’re In” berth to the Nov. 2 Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Turf Dash at Del Mar by way of the Breeders’ Cup Problem Sequence.
One of the achieved horses within the Ainsworth Turf Dash discipline is #10 Nobals (6-1 morning-line odds), a 5-year-old gelding with eight stakes wins to his credit score. 4 of these stakes triumphs got here throughout 2023, together with a season-defining triumph within the Breeders’ Cup Turf Dash at Santa Anita Park.
However regardless of his achievements, Nobals might show weak within the Ainsworth Turf Dash. He completed fifth in his lone earlier begin over the distinctive European-style turf course at Kentucky Downs, and nowadays he appears higher operating a bit shorter than three-quarters of a mile. Plus, Nobals ran under type in his first begin of 2024, ending fourth (although crushed solely three-quarters of a size) in an $80,000 allowance non-obligatory claimer at Saratoga.
#1 Gear Jockey (30-1) is one other achieved entrant. He’s gained the Ainsworth Turf Dash twice, in 2021 and 2023. His apparent affinity for Kentucky Downs is interesting, however he hasn’t began since ending 11th within the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Turf Dash, crushed seven lengths by Nobals. Can Gear Jockey three-peat within the Ainsworth Turf Dash whereas coming back from a 10-month layoff? Final 12 months he had a prep race earlier than returning to Kentucky Downs, so the lengthy break is a query mark.
For these causes, #4 Cogburn (6-5) is hands-down the horse to beat within the 2024 Ainsworth Turf Dash. Some bettors would possibly hesitate to assist Cogburn since his lone defeat from six turf begins got here at Kentucky Downs in final 12 months’s Ainsworth Turf Dash; he completed fifth, crushed three-quarters of a size by Gear Jockey. It appeared like a step backward in comparison with his gritty victory within the 2023 Grade 3 Troy Stakes at Saratoga, by which he rallied to defeat Nobals by three-quarters of a size.
However Cogburn has elevated his sport to a brand new stage this 12 months. Within the Grade 2 Twin Spires Turf Dash Stakes Offered by Sentient Jet at Churchill Downs, he dominated by a deep discipline by 2 ¼ lengths. Then within the Grade 1 Jaipur Stakes at Saratoga, he led all the way in which to crush his rivals by 3 ½ lengths, finishing 5 ½ furlongs (11/16ths of a mile) within the North American report time of :59.80.
Since Cogburn is even higher this 12 months than final 12 months, he could make amends for his Ainsworth Turf Dash defeat whereas returning to Kentucky Downs. We suggest betting on this standout grass dasher to safe first prize on Saturday.
Different logical Ainsworth Turf Dash contenders embrace #2 Axthelm (30-1), winner of a $100,000 allowance non-obligatory claimer at Kentucky Downs final Sunday, and #3 One Timer (8-1), crushed a head by Gear Jockey within the 2023 Ainsworth Turf Dash. One Timer can even be making a fast turnaround as he completed second by a head final Saturday in a $220,000 allowance race on this turf course.
One wildcard is #8 Khaadem (7-2), who has gained back-to-back editions of the distinguished Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes over the straight course at Royal Ascot in England. The 8-year-old gelding is clearly proficient, however he’s completed 10th in two begins since profitable the 2024 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee in June. It’s troublesome to belief Khaadem to carry his “A” sport away from Ascot, so we’ll oppose him within the Ainsworth Turf Dash.
As a substitute, let’s play Cogburn on high of trifecta tickets utilizing Nobals, Gear Jockey, Axthelm, and One Timer beneath. If we are able to efficiently choose the highest three finishers so as, we’ll money a pleasant payoff regardless of the actual fact Cogburn is more likely to be a brief worth within the betting.
Wagering Technique on a $12 Funds
$1 trifecta: 4 with 1,2,3,10 with 1,2,3,10 ($12)
What to say on the betting window: Kentucky Downs, eleventh race, $1 trifecta 4 with 1,2,3,10 with 1,2,3,10
Wagering Technique on a $36 Funds
$3 trifecta: 4 with 1,2,3,10 with 1,2,3,10 ($36)
What to say on the betting window: Kentucky Downs, eleventh race, $3 trifecta 4 with 1,2,3,10 with 1,2,3,10
Good luck, and benefit from the race!
