Luis Arraez Has Stopped Putting Out

The final time Luis Arraez struck out was August 10, a full month in the past. He struck out the day earlier than that as properly. As of Tuesday morning, Arraez has performed in 42 of the Padres’ 46 video games throughout the second half of the season, and he has struck out precisely twice. No different certified participant has struck out fewer than 15 occasions for the reason that All-Star break. Please take a second to consider that. It signifies that the participant with the second-fewest strikeouts has struck out 7 1/2 occasions greater than Arraez. Practically 75% of certified gamers have struck out at the least 30 occasions. Arraez, as soon as once more, has completed so twice. Right here’s what that appears like in a graph. Every bar represents a professional participant and Arraez is the tiny inexperienced one all the way in which to the fitting. I’ve added a dashed line to present you a way of how far beneath everybody else he’s.

Arraez at present has 26 strikeouts over all the season. If he can keep beneath 30, he could be simply the ninth certified participant on this century to perform the feat, and the primary since Jeff Keppinger did so in 2008. Even in case you do depend 2020, even though Arraez has made 340 extra plate appearances (and counting) than any participant in that season, he at present has fewer strikeouts than all however 5 of the 142 certified gamers. Right here’s a chart of the entire 2024 season, only for good measure.

However let’s give attention to simply the second half once more. The Padres had 17 video games left to play as of Tuesday morning, after I ran a Stathead search to see which gamers have had the fewest second-half strikeouts in AL/NL historical past. Though the primary All-Star Recreation was performed in 1933, the information goes again to 1901, and I set a minimal of 180 plate appearances. (With no break, I’m undecided how precisely Stathead divides these first 32 seasons, however we’re extra within the spirit of the factor anyway.) Together with Arraez, 32 gamers have struck out not more than two occasions, 67 gamers have struck out not more than thrice, 127 have struck out not more than 4 occasions, and 219 have struck out not more than 5 occasions. (All of the stats I take advantage of on this piece are as of Tuesday morning, however earlier than I proceed, it’s value mentioning that Arraez went 3-for-5 and didn’t strike out in Tuesday night time’s recreation towards the Mariners.) Arraez has the possibility to hitch a really, very quick listing. On the high is John Dobbs, who in 1905 turned the one participant to go with out placing out in any respect within the second half. Extra importantly, he actually knew learn how to rock a fisherman’s sweater.

May you look into these eyes – these robust, soulful eyes which have peered into the depths of so many chilly and lonesome nights and seen solely the haunting shadow of despair – and handle to throw strike three? No one may throughout the second half of the 1905 season.

The opposite takeaway from the listing is simply how previous the names on it are: Wee Willie Keeler, Nap Lajoie, Tris Speaker, Shoeless Joe Jackson. If Arraez can keep away from placing out 4 extra occasions over the subsequent 17 video games, he’ll be simply the second participant to hitch this listing since 1979. The primary participant? Tony Gwynn, who in 1993 struck out 4 occasions over 208 second-half plate appearances whereas batting a crisp .400. Proper now, Arraez has a profession Okay%+ of 30, which means that over the course of his profession, he has struck out 70% much less usually than the typical participant. Our all-time lists present a couple of gamers forward of him, however we don’t present precise strikeout totals for practically all of these gamers, so I don’t belief their numbers an excessive amount of. Of that group, the one quantity I actually belief is Gwynn’s 29. Maybe you bear in mind some talk-radio screeching from earlier this season, when Arraez bought traded to San Diego. Some remarked that Arraez’s ending up a Padre was a becoming tribute to Gwynn, whereas others took offense on the comparability.

It’s plain that Gwynn was a greater participant. Arraez put up a 131 wRC+ in each 2022 and ’23, the perfect marks of his profession. Gwynn surpassed that mark in eight totally different seasons, and ended his profession with a 132 wRC+. He put up a 126 wRC+ in his age-41 season, whereas the 27-year-old Arraez has but to hit his decline section. Lastly, Arraez has by no means actually had a defensive place, whereas Gwynn was a baserunning menace and a strong defender till knee points slowed him down. Nevertheless, I might remind you of the variations of their eras. The opposite plus stats make an eloquent argument for Arraez as Gwynn’s rightful inheritor.

You could be shocked to be taught that, relative to his period, Arraez is definitely higher than Gwynn at hitting for common. The largest distinction between the 2 is that Gwynn was extra of a slugger. Identical to Gwynn, Arraez is undoubtedly the premier contact hitter of his period. Nevertheless, contact is far, a lot more durable to come back by on this period. We most likely shouldn’t be shocked that to be able to hit for a comparable common, Arraez has needed to sacrifice extra energy than Gwynn did.

Right here’s the place issues get tough. You would argue that the foundation causes behind Arraez’s declining strikeout price are additionally the foundation causes behind the step again in his efficiency this season. To start with, in every of the previous two seasons, his chase price has made an infinite leap. From 2019 to ’22, his chase price was regular at a hair above 24%. Final season, it elevated to 31.8%, and this season it’s as much as 35.6%. In two seasons, Arraez has dropped from the 78th percentile to the tenth. Usually, chasing extra would result in extra strikeouts, however Arraez isn’t regular, and his contact price has gone up sufficient each inside and out of doors the strike zone that he’s nonetheless making extra contact total. Sports activities Data Answer has been monitoring plate self-discipline since 2002, and the scatterplot beneath exhibits the information for all 3,366 certified participant seasons since.

These two dots within the crimson circle signify Arraez in 2023 and ’24. Simply six different gamers have ever made that a lot contact, and nobody has completed so whereas chasing anyplace close to as usually. Consequently, Arraez is on tempo to place the ball in play 616 occasions, essentially the most since Statcast began monitoring batted ball occasions in 2015, and his stroll price has fallen much more dramatically than his strikeout price.

That’s not all. As a result of extra of the balls he places into play are approaching pitches which can be exterior the strike zone, he’s not hitting the ball as arduous as he used to. Final yr, a .362 BABIP masked the distinction, however this yr he’s at .325. It’s not arduous to see why. When he swings at pitches within the zone, his exit velocity is 88.8 mph. On pitches exterior the zone, it’s 80.9, practically 8 mph decrease. Consequently, Arraez’s .332 xwOBA is the bottom of his profession. Putting out much less is nice, however in case you stroll much less too and produce much less on balls in play, it doesn’t matter a lot. I do not know whether or not the Marlins or the Padres have tried to get Arraez to be a bit extra selective. His expertise for squaring up the ball makes him such an outlier; I wouldn’t be shocked to listen to that they simply let him do his factor as a result of they don’t wish to get in his head and mess up his one bizarre trick.

Nevertheless, Arraez hasn’t simply stopped placing out. Despite the fact that his chase price has elevated from 34.6% within the first half to 37.8%, he’s lastly hitting sufficient to show his season round. He’s operating a 119 wRC+ within the second half, lifting his season mark from 104 to 109. This can virtually actually be the third straight season through which Arraez runs baseball’s lowest strikeout price, and it’ll very most likely give him his third straight batting title. Additionally, he’s struck out trying simply twice all season. To date, 34 totally different gamers have struck out trying at the least thrice in a single recreation.

Let’s finish by considered one of Arraez’s two second-half strikeouts. Each got here towards the Marlins, with whom Arraez began the season and who due to this fact most likely had a reasonably good scouting report towards him. I’m going to point out you the August 9 strikeout, as a result of it’s a doozy. It got here within the high of the eighth inning towards George Soriano. House plate umpire Scott Barry had a excessive strike zone all recreation, and it looks like Soriano was conscious of it. Right here’s strike one:

That’s a four-seamer that catches the very, very nook of the zone up and away. It’s a borderline strike, and when the pitcher will get the decision, there’s not a lot you are able to do however tip your cap. Right here’s the second pitch:

That’s now not borderline. That’s a slider, and based on each Statcast and the on-screen strike zone it missed excessive. How usually do pitchers miss above the zone with a breaking ball and earn a referred to as strike? Not usually. As you possibly can see, Arraez will not be significantly joyful about ending up within the gap 0-2 due to a borderline name adopted by a blown name. At this level, he virtually actually seems like he has to swing at something, as a result of there’s completely no motive to belief the umpire’s strike zone. Right here’s strike three:

That’s a verify swing on a superbly executed again foot slider. Personally, I might argue that Arraez didn’t go, but it surely’s a detailed name both means.

Simply to recap, we’ve bought a borderline strike on the nook, a missed name above the zone, and a borderline checked swing. That’s a tough luck strikeout if ever there was one. Arraez would strike out as soon as extra the subsequent day, then determine that he was completed with such issues, presumably eternally.