The Grade 2, $2 million FanDuel TV Kentucky Turf Cup Stakes is certainly one of six stakes races with a $2 million purse Saturday at Kentucky Downs on one of many richest days of turf racing in North America. It is usually a Breeders’ Cup Problem Collection “Win and You’re In” race for the Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf Nov. 2 at Del Mar.
The Kentucky Turf Cup drew a discipline of 11 led by final yr’s Turf Cup winner Get Smokin, who enters the race off a win within the Grade 2 United Nations Stakes. One other sturdy last-race effort seems to belong to Integration, who completed second within the Grade 1 Arlington Million Stakes 4 weeks in the past. Sugoi was fifth in that race, however two begins earlier than that gained the Grade 3 Louisville Stakes on the identical 1 ½-mile distance of the Turf Cup. Cathkin Peak simply gained the John’s Name Stakes on grass on the longer distance of 1 mile and five-eighths and suits on all counts. Tawny Port gained the 2022 John’s Name and simply missed within the United Nations, the place he was a head and a nostril behind Get Smokin, with Grand Sonata second within the three-horse photograph end. Anglophile gained the Grade 3 2023 Nationwide Thoroughbred League Dueling Grounds Derby (now the Nashville Derby this yr) at Kentucky Downs one yr in the past however is winless in seven races since. Freeway Robber gained the Kentucky Downs Preview Turf Cup Stakes in August and seems to suit versus these. Chief Little Rock travels from the U.Ok. for world-renowned coach Aiden O’Brien and one race earlier than final gained the Group 2 Heider Household Gallinule Stakes. Balladeer gained the Grade 2 John Henry Turf Championship Stakes one yr in the past this week in California however is winless in six races since then. King Curlin rounds out the sphere off a fourth-place effort behind Freeway Robber final month, however he has gained at this 1 ½-mile turf distance in January.
How the race could also be run within the early levels:
Get Smokin gained the 2023 FanDuel Kentucky Turf Cup when main from begin to end, which is identical manner he gained the United Nations Stakes final month, each coming with jockey Fernando De La Cruz within the saddle. Contemplating that technique has been a profitable one, it’s seemingly Get Smokin and De La Cruz will use it as soon as once more.
Nonetheless, there’s one other “want the lead” kind within the discipline and that’s Balladeer, whose final two wins have been earned main each step of the best way and who has led from the beginning although the primary mile in every of his final eight races. If each Balladeer and Get Smokin run as anticipated and battle for the lead – even when they run extra slowly than common for this sort of race – it’s extremely possible the psychological power of operating subsequent to one another, as a substitute of being on a transparent lead, might take its toll. In that case each might be vulnerable to being handed within the final quarter mile. The horses greatest capable of stalk the tempo have an enormous shot to succeed.
Evaluation and win contenders:
The highest two potential stalkers are Sugoi and Cathkin Peak and each are educated by Mike Maker, who has gained 5 of the final 10 editions of the Turf Cup, most just lately in 2022 with Crimson Knight and in 2019 with Zulu Alpha. Maker will get the providers of two high jockeys, Irad Ortiz Jr. and his brother Jose Ortiz, who mixed have gained 415 races so far in 2024 with their horses incomes $38 million in prize cash. A fast verify of Race Lens statistics reveals that during the last 5 years, when the Ortiz brothers journey for Maker in stakes races on grass at related distances to this race, they’ve gained seven of 29 (25%) and completed within the high three in 13 of 29 races (45%). Irad Ortiz Jr. rides Sugoi for the primary time whereas Jose Ortiz rode Cathkin Peak for the primary time within the horse’s most up-to-date race on Aug. 21, profitable the John’s Name Stakes on the grass at a distance one furlong farther than the gap of this race.
Sugoi and Cathkin Peak have been current purchases by Maker, who has a eager eye for horses which could possibly reach these kinds of marathon turf races even when they’ve by no means run these long-distance races beforehand. Cathkin Peak is an ideal instance; earlier than profitable the John’s Name he had by no means run as far in 19 races prior to creating his first begin for Maker. Equally, Maker bought Sugoi in April and the horse instantly ran 1 ½ miles for the primary time and gained the Louisville Stakes proper off the bat.
Each Sugoi and Cathkin Peak can win on the lead or from off the tempo and are prone to be relaxed in mid-pack within the early levels, with both or each launching bids when the tempo quickens with a few quarter mile to run. Of the pair – who each carry engaging morning-line odds – I give Sugoi slight desire primarily based on his greatest current effort when second within the Chorleywood Stakes with a 114 Equibase Velocity Determine. Cathkin Peak earned his greatest Equibase pace determine of 2024, a 107, profitable the John’s Name and might definitely run as nicely or higher in his second begin since shifting to the Maker barn.
Chief Little Rock ships in from Europe for world famend coach Aiden O’Brien, who during the last 5 years has a fairly stable document of 7-4-4 in 25 races with horses operating in North America who final began abroad. As a son of Galileo, one of many high sires on the earth, there isn’t any doubt the horse can run nicely at this distance. Though Chief Little Rock ran poorly when 12th of 14 within the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot in June, he gained the Gallinule Stakes in Could with a 107 determine which tells us he suits with these. Frankie Dettori, who has already gained 5 of 18 races this yr at Kentucky Downs, takes the mount and we will anticipate Chief Little Rock to be aggressive at this stage and distance.
One other horse that deserves point out is Tawny Port, who have to be thought-about for the highest three. His profession document is 5-3-4 in 21 races together with 1-2-3 in 9 lifetime begins on turf, however that doesn’t inform the entire story. In 4 of his final 5 races, Tawny Port has been overwhelmed a neck or much less, with back-to-back 114-figure efforts, most just lately when ending only a head and nostril behind Get Smokin within the United Nations. Tawny Port gained the 1 5/8-mile John’s Name Stakes in 2023 with a 108 determine, the identical race Cathkin Peak gained in 2024 with a 107 determine. So, if we think about Cathkin Peak to be a contender, we additionally should not low cost the possibilities of Tawny Port.
The remainder of the sphere, with their greatest Equibase Velocity Figures, is Anglophile (113), Balladeer (109), Get Smokin (114), Grand Sonata (114), Freeway Robber (112), Integration (118) and King Curlin (108).
Fundamental Win Contenders (in chance/desire order):
Sugoi
Cathkin Peak
Chief Little Rock
Subsequent contender: Tawny Port
