Let’s Act Just like the White Sox Don’t Exist

Late Wednesday night time, I used to be poking across the web searching for inspiration. A badly timed bout of author’s block had saved me engaged on my Spencer Schwellenbach article effectively into the night, so I wished to get a head begin on Friday’s piece and decide a subject earlier than I went to mattress. That’s after I noticed this, from Bizarre Twitter agenda-setter and Batting Round podcast host Lauren:

i feel all of the 2024 white sox group information ought to stand however in some way participant information ought to get expunged. like, the MLB stat nerd neighborhood has an obligation to determine how stuff was dealt with when people had been held accountable for plagues that effected cities in babylon

— lauren (@Very__Regular) September 5, 2024

Over the previous few days, you’ve in all probability seen one thing about how the AL Central has 4 groups with successful information, however the White Sox have been so unhealthy they’ve dragged the division as a complete dozens of video games below .500. This enjoyable truth depends on the Detroit Tigers preserving their heads above the break-even level — a fragile tightrope act if ever one existed — however it speaks to an thrilling risk: That the White Sox may be so unhealthy they’re breaking the curve for everybody.

What if you happen to hopped into the time machine and It’s a Great Life‘d Jerry Reinsdorf when he was in legislation faculty? Present him what his legacy has grow to be. Little question he’d be fascinated by the surprising course the Kennedy political dynasty has taken over the previous 60 years, however focus, Jerry, focus. What if, as a substitute of creating a whole lot of hundreds of thousands of {dollars} as an expert finder and exploiter of loopholes in tax legislation, you went into one thing extra mundane and fewer profitable? Felony protection, perhaps? Household legislation?

On a league-wide degree, not a complete lot would have modified. In case you erased the White Sox from the file — each the group’s personal stats and people amassed by their opponents — you’d wipe out roughly 11,000 plate appearances. However the league-wide batting common, OBP, and strikeout and stroll charges would stay unchanged. The league’s slugging proportion would enhance… from .401 to .403.

White Sox video games solely account for 1/fifteenth of the league’s motion, and abject as they’ve been, they’re not up to now exterior the norm as to skew the complete statistical define of main league baseball in such comparatively small portions.

However whereas these drops of White Soxiness can’t colour the complete ocean, they’re fairly potent when taken in isolation:

The opposite 29 groups have a mixed wRC+ of 117 in opposition to the White Sox, which turns the typical hitter into Alex Bregman or Isaac Paredes. For different gamers, it’s finished much more than that.

Baseball Reference has a nifty stat known as tOPS+. It operates like some other -plus stat, in that it scales to 100, however as a substitute of evaluating a participant’s efficiency to league common, it compares the participant’s OPS inside a break up to the participant’s general OPS. (OPS+ isn’t as exact a instrument as wRC+, however this submit is extra about enjoyable information than science anyway.)

As of Thursday, 121 gamers had taken 15 or extra plate appearances in opposition to the White Sox this season. Seventy-eight of them — virtually two-thirds — had a tOPS+ over 100, which means they carried out higher in opposition to the White Sox than in opposition to the remainder of the league. Nearly precisely the identical variety of gamers have a tOPS+ of 150 or higher (42) as have a tOPS+ below 100; in different phrases, the White Sox are as more likely to make a hitter 50% higher than regular as they’re to make him worse.

In some instances, loads higher.

What occurs if you happen to take the worst group… perhaps because the founding of the World Collection, and put them up in opposition to top-of-the-line hitters of all time?

There are 18 seasons in MLB historical past by which a participant took at the least 20 plate appearances in opposition to one group and posted an OPS of two.000 or greater. These 18 seasons have a tendency to come back fairly not too long ago: All however three are from the six-division period, and 5 are from the previous eight seasons. That’s as a result of the 30-team league and unbalanced schedule has allowed a hitter to hit that candy spot the place he hits sufficient to point out up on this search, however not a lot that small sample-weirdness begins to even out.

Are trendy gamers beating up on single opponents greater than, say, Ted Williams or Babe Ruth beat up on the St. Louis Browns? Only for enjoyable, I regarded up Williams’ team-by-team splits from 1941, and he hit .426/.578/.918 in 83 plate appearances in opposition to the Browns and .444/.588/.905 in 85 plate appearances in opposition to the Philadelphia A’s. Think about how sick you’d get of watching an all-time nice beat the hell out of your group 20 video games a yr.

All of that is to grease the skids for the notion that in six video games in opposition to the White Sox, Juan Soto went 10-for-24 with six house runs and 9 walks. That’s a wRC+ of 421. Once I typed that quantity out for the primary time, I reflexively put a interval in entrance of it, as a result of my mind scans any three-digit quantity that top as a slugging proportion.

These six video games, out of 136 in complete, raised Soto’s seasonal slugging proportion by 34 factors and his wRC+ by 11 factors. However as a result of he’s a future Corridor of Famer within the midst of top-of-the-line seasons of his profession — even in opposition to good groups — Soto has a reasonably excessive ground.

Let’s take a barely much less achieved hitter: Alec Bohm. Now, Bohm’s no slouch — he was an All-Star this yr and is within the midst of his finest full season within the main leagues. What makes him fascinating is that, because of the interleague play schedule, he obtained to face the White Sox solely thrice, totaling 14 plate appearances.

However he made probably the most of them: 6-for-12 with two house runs, a 340 wRC+. That was adequate to lift his wRC+ 5 factors — once more, in simply three video games.

The participant who’s benefited probably the most from taking part in the White Sox obtained a number of extra cracks at them:

Tigers utilityman Zach McKinstry leads the league in tOPS+ in opposition to the White Sox. He hasn’t carried out in addition to Soto in absolute phrases, however he’s coming from a a lot decrease baseline.

McKinstry is having a season in step with his profession norms: Prior to now 4 seasons, he’s by no means had a wRC+ decrease than 77 or greater than 82. This yr, he’s hitting .226/.283/.354, which is a wRC+ of 80, in 98 video games.

Seven of these video games got here in opposition to Chicago, and in them McKinstry went 8-for-18 with two house runs. The video games in opposition to the White Sox account for 7.1% of McKinstry’s season by each video games performed and plate appearances, however in these seven video games he produced 13.8% of his hits, 23% of his weighted runs created, and 50% of his house runs. Towards 28 non-White Sox groups, McKinstry’s seasonal wRC+ is 65, not 80.

So what would occur if you happen to had been capable of wipe this yr’s White Sox out of the historic file? Plenty of issues, most of them frankly insignificant. However if you happen to did, I guess Zach McKinstry could be extraordinarily displeased.