Final yr, Kyle Schwarber turned the primary participant in MLB historical past to drive in additional than 100 runs (104, to be actual) in a season with a batting common under .200. He was additionally the primary participant to hit 40 dwelling runs (he hit 47), rating 100 runs (he had 108), or draw at the least 120 walks (he drew 126) regardless of getting a success in fewer than one-fifth of his at-bats. The truth that he completed tied for third within the NL in plate appearances (720) actually helped him compile these counting stats – no different hitter has ever topped 650 PA with a median so low – however there was no denying that Schwarber was a useful offensive participant regardless of his league-worst .197 batting common. He turned the second certified, sub-.200 hitter in historical past to put up an OPS above .800 and got here simply shy of beating 2021 Joey Gallo for the highest-ever wRC+ in a professional, sub-.200 season; Gallo completed that yr at 121, whereas Schwarber was at 119 in 2023.
After I hear these enjoyable info, my inclination is to rejoice Schwarber and his uncommon accomplishments. Positive, he’d be a greater ballplayer if he may bat .300 and nonetheless membership 40-plus homers and draw 120-plus walks, however that’s not likely saying something. Simply as chocolate cake can be higher if it have been chocolate cake with ice cream, Schwarber can be higher with Luis Arraez’s batting common. That’s not evaluation; it’s a Fb graphic asking you to construct your dream hitter with $15. The actual fact of the matter is that Schwarber is superb at what he does, batting common be damned.
Sadly, not everyone seems to be so inclined to concentrate on the positives. When Schwarber himself spoke about his season final September, he couldn’t assist however lament his low batting common: “Heck, do I like seeing a .193 [batting average]? No. Do I want I used to be hitting increased? Completely.”
Schwarber elaborated this spring, telling Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer, “If you happen to’d have instructed me I used to be going to hit .190-whatever and hit 47 bombs and drive in 100, rating 100, and punch out 200 occasions, I’d’ve stated you’re loopy. But it surely occurred, proper? I lived it.”
In Lauber’s phrases, the slugger spent the winter “determining tips on how to by no means, ever dwell it once more.” To be clear, Schwarber understood that he was nonetheless productive on the plate final season, however he needed to be greater than a three-true-outcomes participant. As he put it: “I simply know that there’s extra [of a] hitter in there.”
I hate to destroy the phantasm of my journalistic objectivity, however I need to admit the Phillies fan in me was scared by Schwarber’s feedback. Apart from Bryce Harper, who due to accidents performed simply 225 of the workforce’s 324 common season video games throughout 2022 and ’23, Schwarber was most likely Philadelphia’s most harmful bat over his first two seasons within the Metropolis of Brotherly Love. He didn’t want to vary. Name me a metathesiophobic, however in relation to a 31-year-old, nine-year veteran, I say if it ain’t broke, don’t repair it.
But, 60 video games into the yr, it actually looks as if Schwarber’s offseason efforts are paying off. His TTO% is decrease (50%, down from his league-leading 53.8% in 2023) and his batting common is considerably increased than final yr’s .197. The truth is, his .239 batting common is simply a tick under league common. Amongst certified gamers from 2023 and 2024, solely seven have seen a better year-over-year improve. What’s extra, Schwarber’s general numbers haven’t taken a success like I frightened they might. He’s having fun with one other sturdy season on the plate with a .341 wOBA, .356 xwOBA, and 122 wRC+, all of which place him among the many prime 25 certified batters within the Nationwide League.
All that being stated, I haven’t seen sufficient to allay my preseason fears. One of the simplest ways for a hitter to scale back his TTO% and improve his batting common is to chop again on strikeouts and make extra contact, however that’s not what Schwarber has achieved. He has struck out in 29.5% of his plate appearances, proper in keeping with his 29.9% charge final season, and his 34.1% whiff charge is a profession excessive. As an alternative, the 2022 NL dwelling run chief is sacrificing lengthy balls for base hits. If you happen to’re aware of the fundamental guidelines of baseball, you’ll see why that’s an issue: The farther you make it across the bases, the higher.
Schwarber is on tempo for 30 dwelling runs this yr. He hit 47 final yr and 46 the yr earlier than. He crushed 32 dwelling runs throughout an injury-shortened 2021 marketing campaign. Thirty homers is nothing to scoff at, however Schwarber is sending the ball out of the park on the lowest charge of his profession. The identical is true for doubles and, thus, extra-base hits general. He’s at the moment averaging an extra-base hit as soon as each 17.3 plate appearances; his profession tempo coming into the season was as soon as each 10.2 PA. To be truthful, energy is down throughout the league this season; the league-average remoted energy (.147) has by no means been decrease since Schwarber debuted in 2015. Even so, his career-low .170 ISO this season is simply 20% increased than league common. That’s a giant step again for a slugger whose profession ISO (.259) is 56% higher than that of the typical hitter. Equally, his .408 slugging share, which might be the bottom full-season mark of his profession, is simply 5.4% above common. For his profession, his .486 slugging is 17.7% higher than the typical hitter in that span.
With out the context of Schwarber’s preseason feedback, the best clarification for his dropping energy numbers may be age-related decline. Nonetheless, the poster boy of the Phillies’ “ball go growth” lineup has not misplaced a lick of power. His 54.9% hard-hit charge, a brand new profession excessive, locations him among the many prime 10 certified batters within the sport. And though we will’t examine his bat velocity to earlier seasons, the truth that it sits within the 99th percentile makes me fairly assured he has not entered his decline section fairly but.
One other clarification for Schwarber’s low dwelling run charge might be his typical streakiness. He has a status for heating up later within the season, particularly throughout June, August, and September. He had a 95 wRC+ by way of the tip of Might in 2023 and a 102 wRC+ by way of the tip of Might the yr earlier than. Nonetheless, his extra-base hit charge was nonetheless considerably increased through the first two months of 2022 and ’23 than it’s proper now. He averaged an extra-base hit as soon as each 12.5 PA in March/April/Might throughout his first two seasons with the Phillies; as a reminder, that quantity is one extra-base hit each 17.3 PA to date this yr.
As an alternative of representing a step again or a stoop, this seems like a deliberate adjustment on Schwarber’s half. Though his hard-hit charge is increased than ever, his barrel charge is a profession low. His launch angle candy spot charge is the bottom it’s been since 2020, the worst season of his profession. On a associated observe, his groundball charge (39.6%) is considerably increased than it was throughout his first two seasons with the Phillies (33.8%), whereas his fly ball charge is considerably decrease (down from 50.3% to 42.4%). Amongst certified hitters from the previous two seasons, he has seen the eighth-largest lower in fly ball charge. In accordance with a latest piece by Phillies beat author Alex Coffey, Schwarber’s teammates and coaches have began joking that “he’s a slappy leadoff hitter now.”
For what it’s price, Schwarber has been a greater groundball hitter this season than in years previous, and I can’t say I’m shocked. He’s a gifted hitter, and I didn’t doubt he may change his strategy if he needed to. He stated he was going to enhance his directional hitting this yr, and he has achieved precisely that, pulling fewer groundballs in favor of sending them up the center, and he’s making extra onerous contact on these groundballs. It’s additional proof that he’s hitting extra grounders with intention, however hey, at the least it’s working. Besides… his BABIP on groundballs is totally, undeniably, indubitably unsustainable. The league common BABIP on groundballs this season is .242. Schwarber’s profession mark coming into the yr was .204. Up to now in 2024, he’s working a .368 BABIP on the bottom. That’s to not say Schwarber has merely been getting fortunate; his .246 xBA is definitely barely increased than his precise batting common. Nonetheless, he can’t hold this up. Nobody can preserve a BABIP on groundballs this excessive, particularly not such a gradual runner. Schwarber is due for some regression, and it when comes, he gained’t have the ability to proceed replicating his previous manufacturing along with his new strategy.
One other factor Schwarber needed to enhance this season was his consistency. He didn’t need to prop up mediocre performances in April, Might, and July with sturdy showings in June, August, and September. Sadly, baseball is inherently unstable, and he may be about to be taught that BABIP is much more fickle than dwelling run-to-fly ball ratio.
I are inclined to assume consistency and well-roundedness are overrated. Schwarbombs, however, are a factor of magnificence. Together with the postseason, no batter crushed extra no-doubters final season than Schwarber. Certainly, because of his energy stroke, he has been the writer of a few of the most thrilling moments in latest postseason reminiscence. A standard criticism of the three true outcomes is that they make baseball much less attention-grabbing, aesthetically talking. Nonetheless, that criticism is extra related for the game as a complete, moderately than particular batters. On a person degree, TTO hitters are a part of the varied panorama of gamers that make the game so fantastic. As Michael Baumann put it, “One of many stunning issues about baseball, or any sport, is the emergence of various and seemingly contradictory paths to success.”
If Schwarber continues to supply like a prime 30 hitter within the Nationwide League, I doubt the Phillies will complain about his new path to success. That stated, as he strives to change into a jack of all trades, he runs the chance of devolving right into a grasp of none. For the sake of his slash line – and the sake of Schwarbombs – he may be higher off going again to his previous methods.
