The Breeders’ Cup Dash is as American as apple pie, hot-dog consuming contests, and fireworks. Dash races on a dust major monitor make up the inspiration of U.S. racing and this nation excels within the self-discipline.
It’s additionally normally a rattling good race with 12 of the final 25 editions determined by lower than a size.
With 2022 and 2023 winner Elite Energy retired, there shall be a brand new Dash sheriff on the town Nov. 2 at Del Mar when the 2024 Breeders’ Cup World Championships concludes with the $2 million Cygames Dash.
I’m at all times looking out for some suggestions and historic traits to assist me determine the most definitely winner, eradicate a number of contenders, and uncover a few different entrants who warrant a re-assessment. Let’s discover the final 25 editions of the Breeders’ Cup Dash from Artax’s win in 1999 at Gulfstream Park via Elite Energy’s repeat victory final November at Santa Anita Park and create the profile of a prototypical Dash winner.
Logical … for probably the most half
Horses that began at 4-1 odds or much less have received 12 of the final 25 editions of the Dash, together with six who left the beginning gate as the favourite. The common successful odds for the Dash over the past 25 years is 8.1-1 with a median of 4.9-1.
Then again, there have been 9 winners over the past 25 years that paid $20 or extra for a $2 win guess … however the Dash just isn’t traditionally a race to search for a real bomb of an upset winner. The longest-priced winner was Dancing in Silks at 25.3-1 in 2009, however that race was one in all two throughout this time window that was held on an all-weather floor, which led to some unpredictable outcomes total.
The one different winner at odds of 20-1 or increased within the final quarter-century got here all the way in which again in 2003 when 3-year-old Cajun Beat struck at 22.8-1 odds. He had tried stretching out in distance for the Tampa Bay Derby and turf three begins later earlier than discovering his area of interest as a dust sprinter within the second half of the season.
If you’re in search of a worth, control the runners within the 9-1 to 23-1 vary. High quality sprinters with legit credentials who fell into this vary embrace Squirtle Squirt (9.6-1, 2001), Cajun Beat, Silver Prepare (11.9-1, 2005), Thor’s Echo (15.6-1, 2006), Trinniberg (13.7-1, 2012), Work All Week (19.1-1, 2014), and Whitmore (18.4-1, 2020). There may be logic to the worth within the Dash.
Favor current type
Sixteen of the final 25 Breeders’ Cup Dash winners received their last prep race and 22 completed both first or second of their final pre-Breeders’ Cup begin. Solely two winners entered off unplaced finishes: defending Dash winner Midnight Lute in 2008 and Whitmore in 2020.
Midnight Lute returned from a layoff of greater than 9 months for Corridor of Fame coach Bob Baffert with a tenth-place end within the Grade 2 Pat O’Brien Stakes. Little doubt, he simply wanted a race and in his subsequent begin Midnight Lute received the Dash by 1 ¾ lengths at 2.7-1 odds, so he was no shock. Whitmore completed fourth in his last prep race after he ran second and third within the earlier two editions of the Breeders’ Cup Dash earlier than his breakthrough win. He, too, was a confirmed commodity.
Total, this group received 52.6% of their races pre-Breeders’ Cup within the yr they received the race and the final 15 Dash winners had been even higher, successful 48 of their 75 begins (64%).
Ten of the final 15 winners of the race did so coming off of a victory and the opposite 4 not named Whitmore since 2009 completed second, three of them overwhelmed by lower than a size.
A real craftsman
Search for devoted sprinters on this race, a craftsman plying his commerce, slightly than a longer-distance runner slicing again for the Dash. The common and median distance raced within the yr of their Breeders’ Cup win was slightly below 6 ½ furlongs and solely two competed in races with a median distance longer than seven-eighths of a mile: Midnight Lute in 2007 in his first of back-to-back wins and Trinniberg at 3 in 2012. Midnight Lute began that yr out competing within the Strub collection however by spring Bob Baffert had shortened him to sprints. Likewise, Trinniberg’s common distance was attributable to his begin in that yr’s Kentucky Derby, a race by which he pressed the tempo and light to complete 17th of 20. Trinniberg subsequently returned to sprinting.
Coastal elites
Eleven Breeders’ Cup Dash winners prepped for the World Championships in New York and eight extra made their last prep in California, in order that’s place to begin off the seek for this yr’s victor. 4 others got here out of the Phoenix Stakes at Keeneland.
Making the grade
Twenty of the final 25 Breeders’ Cup Dash winners entered the race with a Grade 2 win or higher on their résumé and 24 had been a minimum of stakes winners. Solely Aloha West, a Grade 2-placed allowance winner in 2021, bucked the pattern of Dash winners having a minimum of one stakes win.
What stunned me most was that solely 13 of the 25 winners had been Grade 1 winners coming into the race. I anticipated the quantity to be a lot increased however maybe the lesson is that type is extra necessary than class on this race.
Tempo predictability
Whereas 12 of the 25 editions of the Breeders’ Cup Dash had been received by horses who profiled as tempo, tempo/press, or press the tempo sort runners, there has not been any sturdy pattern by way of operating fashion. In reality, solely two pacesetters have led from begin to end on this race over the past 25 years. Of the six winners who profiled as closers or nearer/stalkers, 4 have come within the final 4 editions of the race.
Make no mistake, tactical pace is at all times a beneficial asset in filth sprints, however don’t overlook a high quality off-the-pace runner in good type with professional pace figures simply because they are going to have some floor to make up within the stretch. Ten of the final 25 winners had been outdoors the highest three with a quarter-mile remaining and solely 10 of the 25 winners had been in first in early stretch with roughly an eighth of a mile to the end line.
Insights for filth Sprints in California
Eradicating the 2 all-weather races in 2008 and 2009 from the equation, a number of issues jumped out from the 9 filth sprints in Southern California (Santa Anita Park and Del Mar) over the past 25 years.
- Six of the 9 winners entered off a win and the opposite three had been second.
- The 9 winners compiled a powerful pre-Breeders’ Cup file within the yr of their Dash victory of 30 wins from 47 begins (64%) and the final seven winners from 2013 to 2023 received 75% of their races that yr.
- 5 of the 9 boasted tactical pace and profiled within the tempo, tempo/press, press the tempo class with one other, Roy H in 2017, profiling as a stalker/press the tempo sort. By common, the 9 winners had been lower than two lengths off the tempo with a median of 1 size behind the pacesetter.
- There have been 4 winners between 11.3-1 and 22.8-1 from this nine-race pattern and solely two successful favorites: Secret Circle in 2013 for Baffert and repeat winner Elite Energy in 2023. Suppose worth!
- Positive, Baffert received two of those 9 editions of the Breeders’ Cup held on filth in Southern California from 1999 to 2023, however don’t simply give attention to the mega-trainers. Names like Steve Margolis, Bisnath Parboo, Roger Brueggemann, Peter Miller, and Wayne Catalano show good sprinters can come from barns of all sizes.
Evaluating 2024 contenders
The record of logical contenders for the 2024 Cygames Breeders’ Cup Dash is longer than I can bear in mind based mostly on earlier years. Even with the defection of completed California sprinter The Chosen Vron, there are fairly a number of horses with an actual shot to win based mostly on each typical handicapping instruments like pace figures and race replays in addition to a few of these historic traits.
Mullikin is 4-for-4 this yr with graded stakes wins from on and off the tempo, and he enters off a dominant 5 ¾-length win within the Grade 1 Forego Stakes Aug. 24 at Saratoga for coach Rodolphe Brisset. One minor concern is that his final three races had been all at seven furlongs, so he’s not the tried-and-true three-quarter-mile specialist.
Federal Choose received the Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix Stakes Oct. 4 at Keeneland for his first stakes victory and has two wins and a second in three begins this yr. He comes out of a productive prep with impeccable current type however he does choose to be on the lead. Tactical pace is efficacious however with solely two front-running winners in 25 years, the Military Mule gelding may must price simply off the tempo and we’ve but to see that.
Skelly takes a considerably uncommon path (traditionally) to the Dash popping out of a second-place end within the Louisville Thoroughbred Society Stakes at Churchill Downs, however the 5-year-old Sensible Joke gelding has three wins and 4 seconds in seven begins this yr and completed second within the Grade 1 Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap in July at Saratoga. A a number of Grade 3 winner, Skelly additionally ran second in February within the $5,625,000 Riyadh Filth Dash in Saudi Arabia. He does seem like a need-the-lead sort, and that’s a tall order on this race to be in entrance from begin to end.
Nakatomi ran second to Federal Choose within the Phoenix Stakes because the 1.07-1 favourite, which got here one begin after successful the Vanderbilt by 1 ½ lengths over the aforementioned Skelly. He can price simply off the tempo and end, and Nakotomi seems to be harmful on this spot for coach Wesley Ward. He completed third in final yr’s Dash.
All 5 of Straight No Chaser’s wins have come when main from begin to end, in order that’s a little bit of a priority, however he enters the Breeders’ Cup Dash off a dominant 6 ¼-length win within the Grade 2 Santa Anita Dash Championship Stakes Offered by Estrella Jalisco.
Raging Torrent received his profession debut from simply off the tempo however he’s set the tempo in his final three begins, all wins, since transitioning from a quick foray on turf again to filth earlier this season. The three-year-old held off elite California older male sprinter The Chosen Vron to win the Pat O’Brien Stakes Aug. 24 on this racetrack in his most up-to-date begin. He will be efficient racing only a size or two off what seems to be like a ton of early pace within the BC Dash and make his mark late. Half of the six 3-year-olds to win the Dash since 1999 did so in California. He’s my high decide.
Gun Pilot is a confirmed Grade 1 winner popping out of a runner-up end in a New York prep race, however he’s a bit inconsistent for my style and I’m undecided he’s quick sufficient.
I liked California-based Dr. Venkman earlier this yr and the tempo situation may be a great setup for him, however popping out of back-to-back two-turn races is a priority and I feel I choose to make use of him beneath to spherical out the exacta and/or trifecta. He’s 3-for-4 on the Del Mar major monitor and was cross-entered within the Huge Ass Followers Filth Mile, however the Dash is his first possibility.
Japanese runners Don Frankie, Meta Max, and Remake all enter off wins, and of these Remake seems to be to have the very best upside. As a lot as I respect how far Japan racing has progressed, I might be inclined to play towards them in a dust dash till confirmed in any other case. It’s the bread and butter of U.S. racing.
My three-horse exacta field most likely shall be Raging Torrent, Mullikin, and I’ll preserve a detailed eye on the percentages of Dr. Venkman and Nakatomi for the third slot.
