Breeders’ Cup races carry collectively the most effective horses from coast to coast in america together with some high worldwide contenders, which may make World Championships races unpredictable.
That unpredictability is an enormous a part of the attract, not just for the rivals however for bettors who spend a lot of the yr handicapping five- and six-horse fields and all of a sudden feast their eyes on a program full of high quality fields with 10 to 14 starters. To place it succinctly, you probably have a robust opinion on Breeders’ Cup day you can be rewarded when appropriate.
There are winners at double-digit odds at each Breeders’ Cup, and even when your finest wager is between 3-1 and 9-2 odds, you may wager them massive to win or get artistic with exactas/trifectas or multi-race bets to succeed in for a much bigger payout.
Maybe no race over the previous 25 years has been as persistently unpredictable than the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, which has had 10 winners at double-digit odds from 1999 to 2023. Simply final yr, Fierceness was crushed by 20 ¼ lengths in his last pre-Breeders’ Cup begin and rolled to a 6 ¼-length runaway victory Nov. 3 at Santa Anita Park within the 2023 Juvenile, rewarding his backers with a $35 return for a $2 win wager.
Utilizing the final 25 editions of the race because the information, listed here are some key traits and historic nuggets that can assist you choose a winner for the 2024 FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Introduced by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance Nov. 1 at Del Mar.
Search for A number of 1s
Let’s put aside Fierceness final yr for a minute. He appears to be like like a transparent anomaly during the last quarter-century as the one Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner to enter the race off an unplaced end. The opposite 24 entered off a top-three end with 16 of the 25 and 10 of the final 14 coming into the Juvenile off a win. The group as a complete gained 55 of 86 begins for a 64% win charge.
In Fierceness’ case, my finest clarification is that he ran a gap within the wind in his debut and his seventh-place end within the Champagne Stakes was a damaging response to a monster race in his first begin. He has since proved to be a little bit of a unusual racehorse and in addition a lot better than his 16.5-1 odds in final yr’s Juvenile prompt.
Worth Class
In evaluating the final 25 editions of the Juvenile, some winners have run exceptionally quick like Warfare Cross in 2007 and Uncle Mo in 2010, each incomes 123 Equibase Velocity Figures. Others, like Shanghai Bobby (86 Equibase Velocity Determine), ran successful races that had been, effectively, not so quick. It appears apparent, however when it comes to velocity figures, contemplate these 2-year-old contenders compared with their friends slightly than a historic benchmark.
Place a robust emphasis on class as 12 of the final 25 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners had already gained a Grade 1 race and 15 had been not less than stakes winners. Solely three weren’t both graded stakes-placed or a stakes winner. One of many three was Fierceness and the opposite two entered off maiden wins for Corridor of Fame trainers: Motion This Day (2003) and New Yr’s Day (2013).
Previous to Fierceness, the earlier 9 Juvenile winners had been both Grade 1 winners or had completed within the high three in a Grade 1 race.
High Trainers Are, Nicely, Onerous to High
Once you look on the record of Breeders’ Cup Juvenile-winning trainers during the last 25 years, most of the names will likely be recognizable to informal followers: Bob Baffert (5 wins), Todd Pletcher (4 wins), Doug O’Neill (two wins), Chad Brown, Brad Cox, Richard Mandella, Mark Casse. Add in older Corridor of Famers like Carl Nafzger and Nick Zito and elite European coach Aidan O’Brien and these are the trainers of 18 of the final 23 Breeders’ Cup winners.
It is sensible as massive trainers are coaching a better proportion of the horse inhabitants, however suffice it to say look in apparent locations first when looking for the 2024 Juvenile winner.
Profile of a Successful Favourite
Solely 5 of the final 25 editions of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile had been gained by the race favourite, however all 5 had been unbeaten, having mixed to win all 14 of three pre-Breeders’ Cup begins. They had been rising stars for Nick Zito (Warfare Cross, 2007), Todd Pletcher (Uncle Mo, 2010; Shanghai Bobby, 2012), and Bob Baffert (Sport Winner, 2018; Corniche, 2021) who capped unbeaten championship campaigns. 4 of the 5 had been tempo or press the tempo varieties with solely Sport Winner preferring to rally from off the tempo.
Uncovering Longshots
Seven of the ten winners at double-digit odds from 1999 via 2023 got here at Southern California venues, both Santa Anita Park or this yr’s host Del Mar. In case you eradicate the 2 editions held on an all-weather floor in Southern California, six of the opposite 9 editions within the state had been gained by double-digit longshots.
Keep watch over closers. Of the ten whole double-digit longshots since 1999 – starting from 10.5-1 (New Yr’s Day, 2013) to 45.9-1 (Storm the Courtroom, 2019) odds – six had been fifth or worse after the opening quarter-mile and 4 had been between 11th and 14th after a quarter-mile had been run within the 1 1/16-mile race. 5 of the ten had been eighth or worse after a half-mile had been accomplished.
Solely two of the ten longshots entered off victories: Motion This Day gained at 26.8-1 off a maiden win in 2003 and New Yr’s Day gained off of a maiden win in 2013. Seven of the opposite eight entered off a top-three end in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race. Solely Fierceness was unplaced in his last begin from amongst this group.
No Dominant Working Fashion
5 of the final 25 editions of the Juvenile had been gained by confirmed pacesetters, whereas three had been press-the-pace kind runners. Three closers gained the race and one other 5 prevailed who match a stalker/nearer mildew.
There additionally had been seven who profiled as stalkers and two others who match into the stalker/press the tempo class, so no explicit working type has been particularly efficient.
Tactical velocity has been useful with 10 winners working in both first or second after the opening quarter-mile and half-mile. Likewise, solely two of the final 25 Juvenile winners had been greater than two lengths again in early stretch.
Within the 9 editions held on grime in Southern California, six of the runners had been within the high three after the primary quarter-mile and 7 of the 9 had been in first in early stretch, so it has been harder to shut within the Breeders’ Cup Juveniles held on grime in California.
Bluegrass Attraction
Just one Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner within the final 25 years was not bred in Kentucky: Irish-bred Vale of York, a 30.6-1 longshot winner on the all-weather floor at Santa Anita in 2009. It’s a protected wager that this yr’s Juvenile winner will likely be a Kentucky-bred 2-year-old.
2024 Contenders
Over the past 25 years, 10 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners got here out of prep races in California, 5 got here out of the Champagne Stakes in New York, and 4 made their last pre-Breeders’ Cup begin at Keeneland within the Breeders’ Futurity, so it is sensible to start out there.
Citizen Bull gained the American Pharoah Stakes Introduced by DK Horse at Santa Anita by two lengths for his second win in three begins for Corridor of Fame coach Bob Baffert, who has gained 20% of the final 25 editions of the race. Citizen Bull is a robust win candidate, however others have extra enchantment to me.
East Avenue appears to be like just like the most definitely winner popping out of a front-running, 5 ¼-length romp within the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity. The Godolphin homebred skilled by Brendan Walsh improved to 2-for-2 with the win and has tactical velocity, however I don’t suppose he’s a need-the-lead kind.
Chancer McPatrick is one other unbeaten contender after closing from ninth to win the Champagne Stakes by 2 ¾ lengths for high coach Chad Brown. He’s 3-for-3 and comes out of a really productive prep race.
For bettors searching for a longshot, American Pharoah runner-up Getaway Automobile was favored over Bob Baffert stablemate Citizen Bull in that race. He was taken off the tempo for the primary time within the American Pharoah and ran fairly effectively. He may very well be the most effective worth of Baffert’s three potential contenders. Likewise, Ferocious completed second as the favourite within the Breeders’ Futurity after he unseated his rider earlier than the race after which was bumped getting into the primary flip.
In case you are searching for a real bombs-away longshot, I’ve two that may match the invoice. McKinzie Avenue completed a well-beaten third within the American Pharoah Stakes after a runner-up end within the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity. He does his finest working from off the tempo and enters off a top-three end in a key California prep race. Japanese invader Shin Consider, a Kentucky-bred for high Japanese coach Hideyuki Mori, enters off a dominant maiden win at 1 1/8 miles in his profession debut and really seemingly will likely be neglected.
