Now that horse racing’s unofficial “second season” has wrapped up with the conclusion of the 41st Breeders’ Cup World Championships, it’s time for sprouts of the “first season” to bloom in a sport that has no letup. That first season could be, in fact, following prospects for the 2025 Triple Crown races over winter and early spring, beginning with these vying for a spot in probably the most prestigious of the sequence – the Kentucky Derby Offered by Woodford Reserve.
A number of qualifying factors races on Churchill Downs’ official Highway to the Kentucky Derby schedule have already been held over the previous two-plus months, and different gifted 2-year-olds have emerged within the Derby dialogue after successful or operating effectively in maiden and allowance races across the nation.
Forecasting the sector — and even taking a stand on a possible winner backed by a future wager — is an annual spotlight of Kentucky Derby season. These followers and bettors with a watch on figuring out and supporting precocious 2-year-olds have two methods to make future wagers on the 151st Derby, which will probably be held at historic Churchill Downs on Might 3, 2025.
This season, mounted odds bets on prospects for the massive race are supplied by the bookmakers at Caesars Sportsbook in Las Vegas … however the catch is, they’re supplied solely in Nevada. Caesars, like many different bookmakers, has expanded its attain out into a number of different states after sports activities playing has develop into authorized, together with Kentucky the place it has partnered with Keeneland Race Course and the Crimson Mile harness monitor in Lexington. Nevertheless, solely Caesars’ Nevada e-book is providing fixed-odds future wagers on the Kentucky Derby. And as of this writing, fixed-odds bets on the Derby will not be supplied on different platforms with horse racing reminiscent of FanDuel and DraftKings which have launched within the Bluegrass state and elsewhere.
For the actually dedicated horseplayer, what occurs in Vegas doesn’t have to remain in Vegas – bets at Caesars could be made throughout visits and/or by surrogates after which cashed in individual or by mail after Might 3 – however the geo-restriction does sharply curtail what may very well be, or quite must be, a sturdy fixed-odds betting market on the Kentucky Derby.
The opposite choice to wager on Derby prospects comes by way of Churchill Downs’ sequence of parimutuel swimming pools. Churchill supplied the primary of six swimming pools throughout the 2024-’25 street to the Derby from Oct. 30-Nov. 1, previous to the operating of the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Offered by TAA. The second pool kicks off Thursday, Nov. 28, and ends on Sunday, Dec. 1, spanning the Thanksgiving vacation weekend. One qualifying factors race for Derby 151 will probably be held whereas the parimutuel pool is open: the Kentucky Jockey Membership Stakes at Churchill on Saturday, Nov. 30.
Caesars Sportsbook Kentucky Derby Leaderboard (Nov. 24)
1. Citizen Bull (8-1)
2. Rated by Advantage (14-1)
3. East Avenue (15-1)
4. Chancer McPatrick (18-1)
4. Gaming (18-1)
Particular person Favorites in Churchill Downs’ Second Kentucky Derby Pool (opening Nov. 27)
1. Chancer McPatrick (10-1)
1. East Avenue (10-1)
2. Citizen Bull (20-1)
2. Jonathan’s Approach (20-1)
2. Sovereignty (20-1)
All Different Colts and Geldings Listed at 4-5
Some Insights:
The “Baffert Impact” is again in full pressure early throughout Derby futures season. Again in 2021, Bob Baffert briefly loved incomes the standing of the all-time winningest coach within the Kentucky Derby after Medina Spirit wired the sector. The victory, which pushed Baffert to seven wins and one forward of mid-20th century coach Ben Jones, was short-lived as Churchill Downs disqualified Medina Spirit for a medicine overage as soon as necessary take a look at outcomes for all Derby contenders got here in. That set off a chronic set of authorized challenges filed by attorneys for the embattled Corridor of Fame coach and Medina Spirit’s proprietor Amr Zedan, and Churchill Downs Inc. suspended Baffert from competing at its tracks and within the Derby for what turned out to be three years. A settlement was reached in July 2024, Churchill lifted its ban, and now Baffert appears to be like set to invade Louisville for Derby 151 with a barn filled with high-quality prospects.
Citizen Bull is getting probably the most consideration proper now and justifiably so after successful the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at odds of 15.90-1. He’s definitely flashed spectacular cruising velocity in each of his Grade 1 wins, the American Pharoah Stakes Offered by DK Horse adopted by the Juvenile, and the Into Mischief colt’s pedigree is strong for stretching out in future races. Nonetheless, he’s an enormous underlay proper now on Caesars’ e-book at 8-1 odds, and his 20-1 odds opening Churchill’s second parimutuel pool aren’t very interesting both.
Different Baffert-trained contenders getting early assist are Gaming and Getaway Automotive, second and fourth, respectively, behind Citizen Bull within the Juvenile. Gaming is pegged at 18-1 by Caesars and listed at 25-1 in Churchill’s second pool, whereas Getaway Automotive is a 20-1 shot at Caesars and has 50-1 opening odds from Churchill. I believe the latter might need plateaued already and be suited to races at about seven furlongs or a mile down the street, regardless of being by Curlin.
Extra intriguing are a handful of prospects from Baffert’s loaded steady which can be simply getting on the radar. Emerald Bay (55-1 Caesars, not supplied by Churchill) disenchanted when fourth within the American Pharoah Stakes however has been coaching effectively since then at Baffert’s Santa Anita Park base and has stamina-rich bloodline as a son of Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist and out of 2017 Juddmonte Spinster Stakes winner Romantic Imaginative and prescient, by Lemon Drop Child. Baffert’s 1-2 finishers of a 6 ½-furlong maiden particular weight race final weekend at Del Mar, Romanesque and Rodriguez, each deserve point out. Romanesque is in Churchill’s second Derby pool beginning at 40-1 odds, however I believe Rodriguez might need extra potential though he was defeated by 2 ¼ lengths. He’s by freshman stallion Genuine, who gained each the Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup Basic for Baffert throughout the COVID-affected 2020 season. Neither colt is listed in Caesars’ newest e-book, which got here out a day after they raced.
One other Baffert runner is ready to debut this week – not in California, however as the primary horse to set hooves again at Churchill Downs for the coach in 3 ½ years. Barnes, named after Baffert’s longtime assistant Jimmy, is slated to make his first begin Nov. 27 in a 5 ½-furlong dash the place he’s the 6-5 morning-line favourite. This Into Mischief colt is owned by Amr Zedan, who bought him for $3.2 million as a yearling, and is out of a mare by Baffert’s 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. Barnes is opening at 25-1 odds in Churchill’s pari-mutuel pool, and he’ll be both a number of ticks increased or many rungs decrease when the pool closes Dec. 1 relying on what we see underneath the Twin Spires Wednesday.
Baffert’s arsenal apart, there are lots of different intriguing contenders supplied by Caesars, in Churchill’s vacation weekend pool, or each. Michael McCarthy trains two of them in Bullard (22-1 Caesars, 30-1 Churchill) and Journalism (45-1 Caesars, 99-1 Churchill). Not like the occupation for which he’s named, Journalism’s fortunes are on the rise after taking a one-mile Del Mar maiden by an attention grabbing 2 ½ lengths on Nov. 17, his second profession begin and first race round two turns. This bay colt is one other son of Curlin and his dam is Grade 2-winning router Mopotism, by Uncle Mo. As for Bullard, 22-1 is just too low of a value proper now at Caesars, however there’s an opportunity his odds in Churchill’s pool may rise over the weekend. He’s 2-for-2 and has proven a pleasant flip of foot coming from off the tempo in each wins, most lately taking the seven-furlong Bob Hope Stakes at Del Mar by 4 ¾ lengths. The Gun Runner colt has an fascinating feminine pedigree that connects him to hurry by way of his half-sister Mundaye Name – a stakes winner and monitor file setter for seven furlongs at Ellis Park – and in addition stamina by way of his second dam (maternal grandmother), who’s a sibling to blue hen broodmare Higher Than Honour, the producer of two Belmont Stakes winners.
Lastly, listed here are two worth performs to contemplate and a colt to maintain tabs on. If you may get previous the reminiscence of certainly one of Robin Williams’ corniest motion pictures, Patch Adams provides worth from Caesars at 100-1 odds and is price contemplating at 50-1 opening odds from Churchill, too. The Brad Cox trainee had a big bandwagon backing him in his debut Oct. 11 at Keeneland, the place he was despatched off at 0.83-1 odds in opposition to 11 opponents. He set a pressured tempo early in a six-furlong maiden particular weight race, clipping off strong early fractions for his debut, earlier than tiring within the stretch whereas nonetheless competing to complete third behind two longshot first-timers (the winner, David of Athens, is listed at 66-1 by Caesars). This Into Mischief colt must be higher operating round two turns – he’s out of a Distorted Humor mare who gained a stakes race at 1 1/16 miles, and he’s carefully associated to Dubai World Cup winner Nicely Armed, who earned greater than $5 million for Patch Adams’ breeder and co-owner WinStar Farm.
One other colt who ought to enhance with maturity and distance in his races is Sandman, supplied at 40-1 by Caesars and listed at 90-1 odds in Churchill’s pool. He’s a son of Tapit out of a Distorted Humor mare who additionally produced stakes-winning miler She Can’t Sing, and he’s received extra stamina deeper in his pedigree. Sandman, who’s educated by Corridor of Famer Mark Casse and partially owned by social media influencer Griffin Johnson by way of America’s Finest Racing’s “A Stake in Stardom” initiative, gained his second begin going seven furlongs at Saratoga Race Course after which ran fifth and third, respectively, within the Iroquois Stakes and Avenue Sense Stakes at Churchill. The grey or roan colt was making up floor late in each races whereas no menace to win and people efforts – the second coming in his two-turn debut – ought to present worthwhile expertise for his subsequent begin, which could come at Gulfstream Park or Oaklawn Park this winter.
A colt who will not be supplied by both Caesars or in Churchill’s Derby pool #2 however very effectively may very well be within the weeks forward is Sea Vista, who has completed second in each of his profession begins for owner-breeder Godolphin and coach Brad Cox. The primary got here Aug. 3 in a six-furlong dash at Saratoga on a muddy monitor, however it’s his return final weekend at Churchill that received my consideration. Coming off the three ¾-month layoff, Sea Vista had a tough begin in a 6 ½-furlong dash, getting bumped after which having to regular behind horses eight lengths off of the early tempo. He received into gear on the flip and made a sustained rally to complete second, 1 ½ lengths behind winner Mo High quality (99-1 at Churchill) however 2 ¼ lengths away from the third-place finisher.
Sea Vista is by 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Avenue Sense and out of a number of graded stakes-winning miler Sara Louise, by Malibu Moon. His half-brother Nash hit the board in a pair of Derby preps at Honest Grounds final winter, however that Godolphin homebred didn’t develop right into a classic-distance horse. After an encouraging return, Sea Vista has the potential to carry these blue-blood connections again to the Derby path for 2025.
