The very best time to signal a bonafide celebrity within the NFL is true now. It’s at all times proper now. With each passing hour, day, and month it turns into increasingly costly to lock down a game-changing participant.
Up thus far the Vikings have frustratingly dragged their toes on inking receiver Justin Jefferson to the extension he desperately deserves. Studies regularly point out that talks are “shut” or “simply across the nook,” however up thus far nothing has materialized — and actions this month solely complicate issues. Minnesota is repeating the errors of the Cowboys, and it’s going to come back again to chunk them within the ass.
The calculus right here is fairly easy: Jefferson is the perfect receiver within the NFL, and he desires to be paid like the perfect receiver within the NFL. The person is aware of his value, and has the rightful expectation that the Vikings are going to loosen the purse strings.
“I need to break the financial institution and I need to be part of a company that wishes me and to actually give me what I deserve. I really feel like finally the Vikings will do what they should do to have me within the constructing, however I don’t actually know at this very second.”
On the time it was postulated that this could imply a cope with an annual common worth (AAV) north of $30M — based mostly off the very best receiver contract on the time, which was Tyreek Hill. Nevertheless, the huge receiver market has been shaken up because the finish of Might in methods that may have a profound affect on Jefferson’s wage expectations.
If a deal was performed again in February it might have been pretty simple to mission a contract for the receiver. A 3-year, $100M cope with upwards of $80M assured would have been a pleasant, simple, spherical quantity that may each shatter the market and make sure that Jefferson might get one other contract extension in his prime.
The largest stars within the league are banking on themselves, and brokers are totally conscious the wage cap isn’t taking place any time quickly. It’s for that reason we’re extra prone to see high stars searching for three-year offers over five-year contracts, particularly if it means re-entering the free agent market earlier than the age of 30.
There’s a mammoth drawback in projecting Jefferson’s contract calls for now, and it comes from three main gamers — all of whom have newly-inked offers.
- A.J. Brown (Eagles): 3 years, $96M — $84M assured
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions): 4 years, $120M — $77M assured
- Jaylen Waddle (Dolphins): 3 years, $84.7M — $76M assured
The Brown contract reset the AAV of huge receiver contracts at $32M, whereas St. Brown and Waddle confirmed that groups are keen to pony up assured cash — even when a receiver has solely had one really elite season underneath their belts.
It means excellent issues for Justin Jefferson, and unhealthy information for the Vikings wage cap. Right here you’ve gotten a participant with equal numbers to A.J Brown, however he’s been within the league for a 12 months much less — whereas additionally being two years youthful.
The definition of “breaking the financial institution” has modified, and now there’s a transparent determine looming massive:
3 years, $120M — $100M assured
That triple-digit assured mark is huge. Myles Garrett is the one non-quarterback to hit the determine, and it might be the form of groundbreaking receiver deal that Jefferson is searching for. It’s concerning the cash, but it surely’s much more essential to Jefferson from a notion standpoint — and likewise is the form of cash wanted to entice him to endure the rebuild.
Sure, the Vikings have shot themselves within the foot by ready. Nothing has essentially modified about Jefferson’s capacity within the final 12 months, however overspending on Kirk Cousins tied their palms. Now the result’s that they’ll must overpay their WR place, consuming into the mammoth cap financial savings garnered by enjoying J.J. McCarthy on a rookie QB deal.
It’s not the top of the world, but it surely’s the identical mistake the Cowboys have made with CeeDee Lamb, Micah Parsons, and particularly Dak Prescott — all of whom appear destined to trigger large complications to the cap way forward for their crew, all on account of contract inaction earlier than it was too late.
At this level an extension for Jefferson goes to harm, quite a bit — but it surely’s by no means going to be much less painful than it’s proper now. Time to drag the Band-Help off and get it performed.
