The Padres overhauled a lot of the roster as they navigated payroll constraints final winter. The outfield was extra stripped down than retooled, as San Diego traded Juan Soto and Trent Grisham to each offload Soto’s huge arbitration wage and handle a pitching workers that misplaced 4 potential starters to free company. Whereas San Diego subsequently poked across the free agent and commerce markets for outfield assist, the payroll limitations led them to enter camp with two query marks alongside Fernando Tatis Jr.
Inside a pair weeks of exhibition play, it grew to become clear the Padres have been going to show left and heart discipline to Jurickson Profar and Jackson Merrill, respectively. San Diego signed Profar for a barely greater than the league minimal in mid-February. Merrill was a 20-year-old shortstop prospect who had by no means performed above Double-A nor logged any sport reps in heart discipline earlier than Spring Coaching. That outfield alignment at the least carried ample threat. At worst, it may be the distinction between making and lacking the postseason for a fringe Wild Card contender.
By two months, San Diego’s outfield has as a substitute been its largest power. Tatis isn’t the identical participant he was earlier than accidents and a failed PED take a look at worn out his 2022 season, however he’s an above-average common. Merrill is hitting at a league common degree and enjoying plus protection at his new place, exceptional work for a participant lower than three years faraway from highschool. But it’s Profar who has been by far the largest contributor. He has not solely been San Diego’s finest participant, he’s one of many prime performers within the Nationwide League.
Profar is hitting .323/.421/.495 throughout 233 plate appearances. He has hit eight residence runs, one shy of the whole he managed in 125 video games between the Rockies and San Diego final 12 months. Profar is drawing walks at a personal-high 13.3% clip whereas preserving his strikeout fee at a usually low 14.2% mark. He’s hitting the ball more durable than he has at any level in his profession. This season’s 41% laborious contact share is sort of 10 factors larger than final 12 months’s middling 31.7% fee.
There’ll very possible be some quantity of regression within the subsequent few months. Profar isn’t going to maintain tempo with the likes of Soto, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman all season. His profession has been outlined by wild swings in efficiency. Profar was a barely above-average hitter in 2018, ’20 and ’22. His efficiency within the intervening odd seasons was at or beneath substitute degree. But this 12 months’s manufacturing is unprecedented even for a particularly high-variance participant. Earlier than this 12 months, Profar’s career-best OPS over any 59-game span was an .876 mark he managed within the second half of 2018 whereas a member of the Rangers (h/t to the Baseball Reference Span Finder). This season’s .916 is 40 factors larger.
Profar has already greater than made good on San Diego’s $1MM funding. Even when his bat have been to fully crater within the subsequent few months, bringing him again could be a win for the Padres. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller has lengthy valued Profar greater than the remainder of the league (and most outdoors observers) would.
He made a shocking three-year, $21MM wager on the previous prime prospect throughout the 2020-21 offseason. San Diego introduced him again final fall after Profar performed his method off a Rockies group on its technique to 103 losses. They didn’t usher in one other left fielder to push Profar to the bench this spring. That’s largely due to monetary constraints, in fact, however San Diego additionally balked at what proved to be a $3MM worth level for Tommy Pham whereas spending related salaries on Wandy Peralta, Yuki Matsui and Woo-Suk Go. Preller actually wouldn’t have anticipated Profar being the group’s finest hitter, but it surely’s most likely truthful to say he had larger expectations for his left fielder than nearly anybody else did.
San Diego heads into the weekend with a 30-29 file that has them within the third Wild Card spot within the Nationwide League. They’re nonetheless a borderline contender whose season may go plenty of methods within the subsequent few months. It could possible take a significant collapse for them to promote on the commerce deadline, so Profar ought to play your complete season in San Diego. He’ll return to free company subsequent offseason going into his age-32 marketing campaign.
Profar has not beforehand acquired a qualifying provide, so he could be eligible for the QO if the Padres cling onto him all 12 months. Whereas it appears unlikely the Padres would put a one-year provide price greater than $20MM on the desk, it’s not solely out of the query relying on nicely Profar hits within the second half. If he hits the market unencumbered by draft compensation, he may land the largest assure of his profession. He’s at the least trending towards a two-year deal and would have an argument for a three-year pact within the Jeimer Candelario ($45MM) or Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ($42MM with an opt-out) vary if his bat doesn’t wilt down the stretch.
Picture courtesy of USA In the present day Sports activities.
