This text isn’t actually about Joey Ortiz. Or, effectively, it’s, but it surely’s additionally about how numbers will idiot you. Let’s begin with a couple of numbers, then. Ortiz is strolling 12.9% of the time to date this yr, excess of common and excess of he ever did within the excessive minors. He’s chasing pitches outdoors of the strike zone solely 24% of the time, an enormous change in method. Final yr within the minor leagues, that quantity stood at 34.5%. Because of this, he’s swinging and lacking far much less typically. There’s the story of how Ortiz has improved.
Only one downside: That story doesn’t maintain as much as nearer examination. Let’s break the strike zone up into 4 components the best way Baseball Savant and the Statcast staff do it. There’s the center of the plate (coronary heart), the sides of the plate and the realm simply off of it (shadow), the realm the place good breaking pitches typically find yourself (chase), and the land of non-competitive pitches (waste). You’d anticipate Ortiz to swing much less often than common at chase and waste pitches. You’d be improper:
Ortiz Swing Charges by Zone
| Zone | Ortiz Swing% | League Swing% |
|---|---|---|
| Coronary heart | 62% | 73% |
| Shadow | 40% | 52% |
| Chase | 25% | 23% |
| Waste | 6% | 5% |
That’s baffling. For comparability’s sake, teammate Rhys Hoskins has comparable chase and zone swing charges, and he’s swinging at 17% of chase pitches and 1% of waste pitches. He’s additionally swinging extra often than Ortiz at pitches over the center of the plate.
The rationale this could occur is the shadow zone. These are the hardest pitches to evaluate, and in combination batters have a troublesome time telling ball from strike in that space. They’re swinging at 59.9% of shadow zone pitches that cross the zone, versus 43.6% of the time at pitches that simply barely miss the rulebook zone. In different phrases, hitters are swinging much less, however they’re nonetheless getting fooled very often. That makes good intuitive sense. When a hitter takes a pitch a fraction of an inch off the plate, somebody is more likely to say “I don’t understand how he managed to take that” or “what a take!” It’s extremely tough to put off of these close to misses.
Solely, it hasn’t been tough for Ortiz. He’s pretty unremarkable in terms of swinging at shadow pitches within the zone, which I’ll name “shadow-in” pitches; his 53% shadow-in swing price is lower than league common however not by a staggering quantity. How about shadow-out? He’s all of a sudden Juan Soto, with a 25.2% swing price. In actual fact, Soto swings 30.8% of the time at these pitches. Solely three gamers in all of baseball – Andrew McCutchen, Jonathan India, and LaMonte Wade Jr. – are fishing much less often on these extraordinarily tough pitches.
That’s spectacular. Nevertheless it goes from spectacular to complicated when you think about the remainder of what he’s doing. If a batter has the requisite abilities to separate the pitches that clip the zone from those that simply miss it, we’d anticipate them to mash pitches down the center of the plate and ignore unhealthy ones. However Ortiz isn’t doing that in any respect. He has one of many lowest coronary heart of the plate swing charges in all of baseball, and he swings at pitches within the chase zone greater than common.
Is that this some particular ability of Ortiz’s? I’m skeptical, not due to something particularly about his sport, however as a result of it doesn’t make intuitive sense. Right here’s one mind-set about it. Right here’s a curated listing of gamers with comparable gaps between their coronary heart swing price and chase swing price: Adley Rutschman, Paul Goldschmidt, CJ Abrams, Logan O’Hoppe, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryson Stott, Sal Frelick. I don’t consider these guys as having notably sterling batting eyes; reasonably, I hardly assume twice about them in terms of plate self-discipline. Ortiz outstrips everybody round him in terms of discerning pitches within the shadow zone, although; the gamers on this cohort drop their swing charges by 13 share factors within the transition from shadow-in to shadow-out, and he’s at 27.8 share factors.
On the opposite facet of the coin, think about the hitters who choose proper from improper on the margins of the zone in addition to Ortiz. This group contains hitters like Francisco Lindor, Austin Riley, Masataka Yoshida, Fernando Tatis Jr., Steven Kwan, and Ian Happ. These guys know what they’re doing on the plate. However they swing at extra meatballs and get fooled into swinging at fewer chase pitches than Ortiz does by an enormous margin; they’ve a 52 share level hole in these two swing charges, versus 37 share factors for Ortiz.
This can be a long-winded approach of claiming that in the event you’re in search of the abilities which can be going to make Ortiz a superb main league hitter, you want to look past his eye on the plate. Does he even have probably the greatest eyes in baseball? Virtually actually not. However he in all probability received’t swing at so few pitches over the center of the plate going ahead both, as a result of he clearly has at the least an honest sense of the zone; you don’t find yourself with numbers like his utterly by chance.
So is he probably the greatest gamers in baseball in terms of telling balls from strikes, or merely common? Most likely someplace within the center, however I believe he’ll proceed to earn robust walks at an above-average clip. See, a part of the explanation that his coronary heart swing price is so unhealthy is that he lets pitchers put him in a gap to begin plate appearances. Ortiz takes first pitches extra often than the league as a complete; he additionally takes 1-0 and 0-1 pitches extra often than the league as a complete. These pitches are disproportionately proper down the center of the plate.
The factor is, Ortiz doesn’t actually need to do this. That method makes extra sense in the event you’re both a slap hitter who needs to work a stroll or are searching a pitch in a selected location. As greatest as I can inform, neither of those displays who Ortiz is as a hitter. He does most of his harm proper over the center of the plate, identical to you’d anticipate. He began hitting for extra energy in 2023, and that’s carried proper over into 2024.
Naturally, that energy isn’t really easy to grasp both. Ortiz swings the bat exhausting and the common exit velocity of the highest half of his batted balls is within the high third of the league. That’s fairly good, however nothing particular. He additionally mishits the ball quite a bit, which is how he finally ends up with under common exit velocity, candy spot price, and squared up price. In different phrases, he’s sacrificing some contact consistency to supply loud contact when he does join.
That’s paying off, as a result of he’s an outstanding contact hitter. Regardless of his aggressive hacks, he’s making contact on 92% of the in-zone pitches he swings at, an elite price. Mix that together with his unconventional strike zone mastery, and you’ve got a really robust out. Are you able to get Ortiz to swing at unhealthy pitches? Most undoubtedly. Is he vulnerable to some mishits? For positive. However these are small headwinds contemplating all of the issues Ortiz is doing proper on the plate.
Oh yeah, he’s an important defender, too. He’s largely performed third this yr, however can deal with second and shortstop as effectively. If it weren’t for Willy Adames, he’d in all probability be the Brewers’ on a regular basis shortstop, and I’d anticipate Ortiz to take over that position if Adames leaves in free company after this season. Put merely, Ortiz seems to be like a future foundational participant in Milwaukee.
He doesn’t must sustain his present tempo on offense for that to be the case, which is an effective factor. I don’t assume he’ll keep both his outrageous energy on contact outcomes or his sterling strikeout-to-walk ratio. If I needed to guess, I’d put him down for an offensive line round 10% higher than common the remainder of the best way, just a little worse than the anticipated numbers he’s produced to date in 2024 and far worse than his precise manufacturing.
That’s not a disappointment, although. If you happen to went again in time and advised final yr’s Brewers followers that the staff would commerce Corbin Burnes, they’d be upset. If you happen to advised them that the return can be a superb defensive infielder who hits for energy and will get on base, they’d be excited. If you happen to advised them that infielder can be round via 2029, they’d be ecstatic. And in the event you advised them they’d get one other high prospect (left-hander DL Corridor) within the discount, they in all probability wouldn’t consider you. The Brewers and Orioles have each come out of the Burnes commerce forward, and Ortiz’s spectacular efficiency is a big motive why.
