Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 6/4/2024

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, people, and welcome to my first chat of June!

Jay Jaffe: My lunch simply arrived as this chat started so please bear with me for a couple of minutes as I get some nourishment

Gerald H: Opening day 2025….what workforce do you suppose Juan Soto is on?

Jay Jaffe: I’d say it’s both the Yankees or the Mets, with the Giants most likely the third workforce I’d identify however their present regime’s precariousness most likely working towards them.

Tim: Are we staring down one other mlb lockout in 2026/2027? Already listening to rumors about it… will the league really miss video games this time?

Jay Jaffe: I get requested this each single chat. I’m actually unsure why it’s price dwelling upon — I’ve no management over it, you don’t have any management over it, and no one who does have management over it’ll do a lot up till we’re approaching a deadline.

Jay Jaffe: Human nature, I assume! However no, i don’t suppose there’ll find yourself being video games missed (versus rescheduled as in 2022).

Gm Communicate: Is the Blue Jays and Astros Gm’s saying there isn’t any likelihood they’re going to promote there good gamers on the deadline simply lip service or are they actually going to be that cussed? Blue Jays particularly being 13 video games out of first.

Jay Jaffe: i feel it’s largely simply public relations posturing; no one desires their followers to start out tuning out and seeking to subsequent 12 months, and each nonetheless have photographs on the Wild Card on the very least. The Jays aren’t going to win the division however they’re solely 5 video games again within the Wild Card race, the Astros are 7 video games again by way of each routes

sodo mojo: Do the Mariners must commerce for a bat within the quick time period or do they wait till the deadline? For the reason that calendar flipped to Might they’re league common by WRC does that give them pause to see which of their struggling bats rebounds?

Jay Jaffe: Whereas I’m positive they (and also you) would love a fast repair, the truth is that presently there fewer groups prepared to commerce the type of gamers who may very well be obtainable in late July, and a GM who’s promoting would most likely need to be stunned to make a deal. Not all people is taking part in as much as their functionality however the Mariners’ bats do appear to be trending in the precise path, and being in first place buys him a while.

DT: A full season at this charge (round 9 WAR) has to seal the Cooperstown deal for Decide proper?
It might put his WAR7 at nearly 50. The one place gamers with that type of peak are both excluded for different causes (Bonds, ARod, Shoeless Joe), ready for the decision (Pujols, Trout, Betts) or interior circle Corridor guys.

Jay Jaffe: I wouldn’t say it seals the deal, as a result of longevity remains to be the first driver of who will get elected to the Corridor of Fame, and Decide doesn’t even have 1,000 hits, not to mention the two,000 that has been a bright-line check for BBWAA candidates for the previous half-century

Jay Jaffe: That mentioned, sure, Decide is wanting good on the advanced-stat entrance, with a 44.5 peak rating (WAR7) and counting; his 3.9 bWAR is already his seventh-best season, and so each further win he provides counts in the direction of enhancing that, and including a full level to his JAWS. Attributable to his late begin, he’s going to be a novel case anyway, however he’s going to want to bulk up his profession numbers earlier than he assures himself of a spot in Cooperstown.

Tjf167: What $ quantity does an inexpensive Volpe extension begin at? Looks like a excessive ceiling however lowish flooring participant. $110mm with a couple of FA years?

Jay Jaffe: that’s a greater query for Dan Szymborski however the Andres Gimenez seven-year, $106.5 million extension from final 12 months involves thoughts as a place to begin, with changes for inflation and NY. Gimenez was at 2.106 years of service time — not fairly Tremendous Two-eligible — as he headed into his age-24 season. Volpe can be at 2.000 12 months as he does the identical subsequent spring.

Tjf167: Are the times of massive first basemen FA offers over? It doesn’t look like Alonso will ever get the $150mm he turned down, and with 1 dimensional guys like Torkleson (busting) and Vlad Jr   (regressing), it simply looks as if there ought to be loads of skitishness.

Jay Jaffe: I wouldn’t shut the door on one other one ever occurring however proper now, there’s no apparent recipient of 1, and if I needed to throw a dart so far as who to keep watch over, it will most likely be the Pink Sox’s Triston Casas. However that time remains to be a good distance off and he’s received work to do to push his asking worth into the $150M vary.

brad penny in your ideas: how “massive of a deal” do you discover the Tucupita Marcano ban?  how seemingly do you suppose extra bettors can be present in MLB?

Jay Jaffe: Anytime you’ve received a participant banned for all times it’s a giant deal. I don’t know that one other is imminent however within the wake of the Ippei Mizuhara/Shohei Ohtani investigation, I’ve heard numerous rumors about athletes playing by unlawful bookmakers, and if baseball ever will get to the underside of it, I wouldn’t be shocked if we see suspensions extra just like the one-year ones given to minor leaguers.

Frankly, I believe there ought to be a blanket ban on skilled athletes playing on sports activities, and you need to be fairly ****ing silly to danger your profession on the kind of cash at stake by both authorized or unlawful betting.

RAGBRAI: As pitchers are pitching fewer innings (impacting different stats) and hitters are hitting much less HRs (impacting different stats), can we see these former benchmark numbers develop into meaningless to HOF entry.

Jay Jaffe: They’re not meaningless — they’re nonetheless there as reference factors — however it’s going to take Corridor of Fame voters adjusting to the truth of fixing occasions earlier than they absolutely concede that they need to look past win, hit, and homer totals relating to most candidates.

Christian: Hello Jay! With the mixing of Negro League stats into the MLB document and elevated consciousness of lesser-known NeL stars, do you see any Negro Leaguers who would possibly discover their approach into the Corridor of Fame quickly?

Jay Jaffe: Negro Leagues and pre-Negro Leagues Black baseball gamers, managers and executives can be eligible for the 2025 Basic Baseball Period Committee poll, however they’ll be instantly competing for area and votes with pre-1980 AL/NL gamers, managers, and execs, and the poll can solely comprise eight candidates in all. I’m hopeful that someone will break by however it’s going to be a problem to interrupt out of such a crowded subject. I might have a lot most popular to have a Negro Leagues/Black Baseball Period Committee poll voted upon by consultants.

gila monster: Luis Gil bumpday. He’s been on hearth, do you suppose it’s legit?

Jay Jaffe: sure, he’s legit, which isn’t to say that I envision him persevering with to pitch in a approach that earns him Cy Younger votes. he’s received some spectacular stuff and he’s accomplished a improbable job of seizing the chance. I hope that he’s in a position to proceed pitching nicely after no matter slowdown the Yanks impose upon him in order to not overwork him.

Zach: Beloved your Decide piece. One factor I’ve seen that nobody is speaking about is {that a} couple weeks in the past he completed off one of the best 50 recreation rolling xwOBA within the statcast period, and he at present has one of the best 100 recreation rolling xwOBA within the statcast period. Appears absolutley insane to me.

Jay Jaffe: Wow, I missed that aspect however it hardly surprises me. Given his plate self-discipline, energy, and max-EV power, some Decide stretch appeared prone to be the highest one. However as I confirmed within the piece, there’s a case to be made he’s as sizzling as he’s ever been, or fairly rattling shut.

Jay Jaffe:

wheelhouse: if the 2024 yankees are faux, what’s going to the rationale be

Jay Jaffe: We’re all inside Tommy Westphall’s snow globe.

Tacoby Bellsbury: On this present day two months from now, the place do you think Pete Alonso can be taking part in?

Jay Jaffe: Tampa Bay

P: After studying Dan’s article about Eduard Julien’s demotion, it might not be that justifiable purely by way of efficiency, however on condition that the AAA workforce is at dwelling this week (so Julien doesn’t want to truly transfer anyplace, simply take a unique freeway from dwelling), do you suppose there’s something to be gained by merely saying “go play 6 video games in St. Paul and for God’s sake, simply swing the dang bat” in an effort to bust his hunch or change his method?

Jay Jaffe: That and a method of navigating a roster crunch (welcome again, Royce Lewis!)

Sanford: Please do to Pete Alonso what you probably did to Aaron Decide. Thanks!

Jay Jaffe: I’ll most likely write about him in some unspecified time in the future however nothing imminent

slumppy: At what level does MLB step in to try to do one thing in regards to the offense? It has been so unhealthy total this 12 months. At present it’s the solely of the massive American sports activities that doesn’t appear to get and cater the foundations to extend offense since that’s what most of the people desires.

Jay Jaffe: Scoring is definitely greater than it was in 2022, earlier than we received an entire bunch of recent guidelines designed to goose the offense, and we haven’t even hit the summer season but, when the ball tends to hold extra and scoring ranges rise. MLB does have future rule adjustments in thoughts, ABS being the massive one, however after a one-two serving to of rule adjustments, I don’t see the league and the union reacting to each single dip by rewriting the rule e book.

JT: Even when Vladdy isn’t nice at 3B, is that this lastly a recognition from the Blue Jays that we have to sacrifice some protection for offense if we wish to, um, win a recreation?

Jay Jaffe: It sounds prefer it’s going to be a once-in-awhile factor, and whereas I don’t hate it, I believe the incremental beneficial properties are fairly dang small on a workforce that wants like 5 guys to start out hitting like they’ve prior to now

Kyle: Does Jasson power his approach into the BX?

Jay Jaffe: In all probability not till late within the season except there’s an damage. The Yankees are taking part in so nicely they’re in if-it-ain’t-broke territory, and Dominguez nonetheless has simply 9 video games at Triple-A. Give it time.

Mark S: Would 500 HRs get Stanton to Cooperstown? Or has that benchmark been perpetually tainted by the Steroid period.

Jay Jaffe: I believe if Stanton received to 500, he’d most likely get into the Corridor, however it’s not going to be computerized.

Zach: Anthony Rizzo has a 58 wRC+ in his final 30 video games and a 72 wRC+ since his collision with Tatis final 12 months. Are the Yankees ride-or-die with Rizzo or would they take into account a transfer at 1B?

Jay Jaffe: numerous yankees questions within the chat so that is the final one for awhile — I believe they’d get DJ LeMahieu some reps at first base earlier than they take into account going outdoors the group.

HoganLegDrop: Is there any motive to suppose Severino (if he retains present tempo) will get any greater than what Lorezen did final 12 months?

Jay Jaffe: Completely. He has a for much longer and stronger monitor document, significantly as a starter. Lorenzen made his first All-Star workforce final 12 months however completed with a 4.18 ERA and 4.46 FIP, each of which have been worse than his profession averages; he has a 4.23 ERA and 4.59 FIP as a starter for his profession. Severino is coming off a foul 12 months however has typically been rather more profitable.

HoganLegDrop: How ought to we really feel about Yamamoto and that contract given what we’ve seen up to now? Do we expect that there’s one other gear he might kick into however is an above-average however not dominate pitcher wanting extra seemingly?

Jay Jaffe: YOU MUST JUMP TO CONCLUSIONS ABOUT A 12-YEAR CONTRACT NOW!

Jay Jaffe: Yamamoto has been inconsistent however sheesh, the man is carrying a 3.32 ERA and a couple of.69 FIP whereas adjusting to a brand new nation, a brand new tradition, and a brand new baseball. I’m unsure how a lot better you anticipate him to be. I believe it is a fairly good begin to what I anticipate can be a protracted and productive profession.

Nathaniel Lowe: What’s occurring with him? I see a a drop in LA and a giant drop in ISO and Barrels/Charge. I traded for him when Casas went down and have appeared to accumulate a rock.

Jay Jaffe: Wow, a 2% barrel charge? a .338 SLG? I believe your man was kidnapped by aliens and changed by James Loney.

Dk: Extra prone to flip their profession round after extreme early profession struggles Baty or Torkelson?

Jay Jaffe: Torkelson, I believe. He did have a little bit of a breakout within the second half final season (.238/.318/.498 , 121 wRC+), so he’s proven he could be an above-average main league hitter, whereas we’re nonetheless ready for that from Baty, whose ceiling was by no means judged to be fairly as excessive.

T(win)s: No query, simply joyful Royce Lewis is again!  Being a fan of MN sports activities we’re preconditioned to default to “That’s why we are able to’t have good issues”

Jay Jaffe: I’m glad Lewis is again, and I’m nearly utterly detached to the Twins!

MikeD: Do you consider MLB has “deadened” the ball this 12 months, or are there different points at play. If the previous, why would they do this?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t suppose they’ve accomplished something to the ball with intent, however as we’ve seen, adjustments in sourcing of supplies can have a larger-than-expected impact from batch to batch and 12 months to 12 months. As the sport’s preeminent physicist, Alan Nathan, advised me in 2011, “The specs on main league baseballs, they nearly don’t should be referred to as specs, they’re so unfastened that the vary of efficiency from the highest finish to the underside finish is so totally different.”

Jason N: Hey Jay – seems just like the FanGraphs servers are compromised (once more).  I maintain getting my display taken over by rip-off advertisements – even throughout your chat.  Might wish to alert the location admins.

Jay Jaffe: First I’ve heard of it, however I’ll cross this alongside to the authorities. Are you logged in?

Phil: Are Bello, Houck, Casas, Devers, Abreu, and Rafaela the core of a future contending workforce? Or are we ready for Mayer, Teel, and firm, wherein case I presume a number of the above can be traded or let go in free company following a couple of extra years of the present countless middlingship? Asking for a couple of million associates throughout 5 and a half states, thanks.

Jay Jaffe: I’m under no circumstances satisfied w/r/t Rafaella however it is a fairly first rate workforce, with a better-than-expected rotation and a few welcome breakthroughs within the outfield. I wouldn’t surrender hope.

Theeeehauahsuehaueheueheushh Yankees win: I used to be poking by the EVs of a few of my favourite gamers and I seen Freddie Freeman’s common EV is down a bit and so are most of his onerous contact numbers. This isn’t to say that he’s having a foul 12 months clearly, he’s nonetheless most likely a prime 20 or 25 participant proper now primarily based simply on the season, however it received me occupied with declines. May one thing like this be the signal of an oncoming decline for somebody like Freeman? If that’s the case does it portend steep ugly decline or a extra sleek one? And, say it does result in a steep sudden decline, is that sufficient to maintain somebody like Freeman out of the Corridor of Fame? He’s received a reasonably robust however most likely not full resume in that regard, so I’m questioning if he’s in peril of falling out of consideration with a tough drop off

Jay Jaffe: At 34 years outdated, Freeman NOT declining considerably is extra of a shock than if he have been declining, however the man remains to be carrying a 150 wRC+ so I don’t suppose it’s actually time to panic; he hasn’t woken up with Chris Davis’ swing or Nathaniel Lowe’s. He’s checked loads of packing containers for the Corridor of Fame, and whereas I don’t suppose he’s a lock but, I anticipate he’ll get in with a standard profession development.

Ben: What do you make of Snell and Montgomery’s terrible begins to the 12 months? Each arrived very late to spring coaching and didn’t even know the place they’d be taking part in till mid-March at earliest. Clearly there are loads of elements at play, however onerous to not suppose that this interfered with their prep for the season.

Jay Jaffe: Woof, was typing a solution and my entire pc simply crashed… hold tight

Jay Jaffe: I believe it’s completely potential that the late signing contributed to their rocky begins; in any case, a part of coming to a brand new workforce is constructing relationships with coaches and teammates, none extra essential for a pitcher than his catchers. That mentioned, it’s additionally on gamers to maintain themselves in form, and I ponder how a lot of their difficulties are as a result of they weren’t fairly prepared sufficient after they started recreation exercise.

Jay Jaffe: And sure, I get the temptation to Blame Boras, and he most likely misjudged their markets to a level — however he takes his orders from his shoppers, and they also bear culpability as nicely.

Sanford: Is there a motive why FanGraphs doesn’t have HR% (allowed) as an obtainable pitching stat? Maybe I’m lacking it, however I by no means am capable of finding it on leaderboards or participant pages. Ok/9 and BB/9 are accompanied by Ok% and BB% (that are definitively extra helpful), however I’m shocked we’re nonetheless left with solely HR/9…one thing you may cross up the chain?

Jay Jaffe: Agreed, it will be good to have. Will point out it.

grader135: Will tommy pham find yourself again in Arizona?

Jay Jaffe: Man, I don’t know the place Tommy Pham will ship up however that man wants as a lot remedy as his wage can afford.

Jay Jaffe: Okay people, loads of good questions nonetheless within the queue however I’ve to name it a day to go decide up my kiddo. Thanks for stopping by and have an incredible week