When catcher Adley Rutdchman was chosen first general by the Baltimore Orioles within the 2019 June Beginner Draft, some individuals thought he could be the very best catching prospect since MLB went to the present draft format in 1987.
On the time, Jim Callis wrote this about Rutschman on MLB.com:
“Adley Rutschman has all the things scouts need in a catcher. He is a switch-hitter who’s a monster on the plate, able to hitting for loads of common and energy whereas drawing a ton of walks. Behind it, he has a powerful arm, spectacular receiving and blocking abilities — plus management capability off the charts.”
After a wasted 2020 as a result of Covid-19 and a full season-plus within the minors, Rutschman was promoted to the majors in Could 2022 and he instantly had an impression for the Orioles. He completed second within the Rookie of the 12 months voting as he slashed .254/.362/.445, with 13 residence runs and an .806 OPS in 113 video games.
Final season, Rutschman improved barely throughout the board, and expectations have been excessive for him to take one other step ahead in his age-26 season. Sadly, that hasn’t actually occurred. In truth, he slipped again beneath his rookie-season marks. Now in his third 12 months, his slash is .259/.326/.406. He has 18 residence runs and an OPS of .732 in 128 video games.
Is that this only a down 12 months for the younger backstop, or is it a harbinger of issues to return sooner or later?
His Line Drive Fee is according to his profession numbers (23.2 %). His Flyball Fee is at a career-high (42.8 %). This has led to a decrease Batting Common on Balls in Play than he produced in his first two years. Whereas his BABIP is .278 this 12 months, it was .291 his rookie season and .303 final 12 months.
Usually, if this stat goes down, and all different elements keep the identical, it means he is hit into some dangerous luck. In his case, nevertheless, his eight % bounce in his Fly Ball Fee is the perpetrator. He is already hit extra fly balls in 2024 (177) than he did in all of 2023 (170).
He is additionally strolling lower than he ever has and he is hanging out greater than final 12 months. These elements are true indicators of why he’s struggling a bit.
Rutschman has practically 400 video games and over 1,700 plate appearances in his younger profession. He is had time to determine what sort of participant he’s going to be. What we’re seeing in 2024 could be it. He in all probability has a bit extra ceiling left; he’ll in all probability by no means be a .300 hitter or hit 30 residence runs. He generally is a stable batter and catcher for the Orioles for years to return, however expectations ought to be adjusted.
He is not a bust by any stretch of the creativeness, and if he can preserve or barely enhance on what he is on thus far, he can proceed to be an above-average catcher, and can in all probability be in a number of extra All-Star video games. He simply won’t make it to famous person standing.
