The Denver Broncos have reverted again to their Simpsons type. They’re, as soon as once more, the franchise Homer must accept after serving to Hank Scorpio take over the jap seaboard.
There’s been a mess of the reason why Denver has didn’t make the postseason since successful Tremendous Bowl 50 in Peyton Manning’s NFL finale. Foremost amongst them is a quarterback place that’s been unable to develop homegrown expertise or, extra not too long ago, flip confirmed veterans into something productive.
Manning labored out in addition to he might have, even when his lone Tremendous Bowl as a Bronco got here in a vastly diminished state. The veterans who adopted had been an eclectic mixture of high and low expectations whose play by no means crested above “common.” Case Keenum, Teddy Bridgewater, Joe Flacco and most notably Russell Wilson had been unable to steer the workforce to a single successful document the final seven seasons. They had been requirements as a result of draft picks Payton Lynch and Drew Lock didn’t pan out.
Denver heads into the 2024 season with its highest drafted quarterback since Jay Cutler in 2006. The workforce may have a six-year veteran displaying that rookie the ropes. However relying on both Bo Nix or Jarrett Stidham to do something greater than possibly punch their manner above the AFC West basement appears like a idiot’s errand.
The 2024 Broncos aren’t alleged to be good
Should you want any indication on how NFL groups view subsequent 12 months’s quarterback draft class, take into account Denver. The Broncos knew 2024 was going to be a problem. Russell Wilson was gone, however $85 million of his wage remained on the workforce’s books — $53 million this fall and $32 million the subsequent. 20 p.c of the workforce’s spending room in 2024 is devoted to a man who’ll be taking part in quarterback in some capability for the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Even with some nice homegrown expertise on rookie offers, this was going to be a troublesome 12 months. However Jerry Jeudy was traded to the Cleveland Browns. Justin Simmons was minimize. Robust choices had been made in service of that scarce cap house, leaving Denver with a number of younger constructing blocks (Pat Surtain, Quinn Meinerz … possibly Baron Browning?) however largely a roster in dire want of enchancment.
Regardless of what could possibly be a high 5 draft choose for 2025 and the prospect to take 2024’s first defensive prospect (or a bunch of offensive expertise) with the twelfth total choose, the Broncos opted to take this spring’s sixth drafted passer quite than solid their lot for subsequent spring.
Nix’s school resume is undeniably spectacular. His switch from Auburn to Oregon pushed him from good to nice. He threw 45 landing passes in 14 2023 video games towards simply three interceptions en path to a 3rd place end in Heisman Trophy voting.
Nevertheless, that claims extra in regards to the Oregon offense than Nix’s capabilities as a game-changer. The Geese had been nearer in spirit to the San Francisco 49ers than the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs when it comes to their passing sport. The Pac-12 runners-up leaned closely on the yards-after-catch machines of their lineup. Nix could have averaged an outstanding 9.6 yards per try — fifth finest within the FBS — however his common move traveled simply 6.9 yards downfield, sixth-lowest within the FBS. 67 p.c of his throws got here 9 yards past the road of scrimmage or fewer.
This didn’t imply he couldn’t make these large throws. He had a 26:2 landing:interception ratio on the 33 p.c of his tosses that went 10 yards or additional. However what the Washington Huskies did to Nix within the Pac-12 title sport is what opposing defenses will do all through his rookie marketing campaign.
The Huskies, more healthy within the secondary than they had been in October when Nix burned them for 337 yards and a pair of touchdowns (in a loss), flooded the quick vary and trusted their deep safeties to erase Oregon’s large throws. It labored; Nix threw three landing passes however his 239 yards and 61.9 p.c completion charge had been each season lows. Washington received the sport and went on to the School Soccer Playoff.
If head coach Sean Payton isn’t prepared to throw him into that fireside, he can flip to Stidham — the identical man he used to snuff out the dying embers of the Russ Wilson period in Colorado. The previous Tom Brady backup has by no means been greater than a alternative stage quarterback, however he’s at all times been prepared to take pictures downfield. His 9.0 air yards per move rank ninth out of 63 quarterbacks to play no less than 150 snaps since 2022.
He’s not notably good at these throws, nevertheless. Per SIS, he’s accomplished solely 25 of 52 makes an attempt to journey no less than 10 yards downfield. There are some caveats there. He was tossed into video games for groups with nothing to lose. Earlier than taking Wilson’s spot he was the man to usher Derek Carr out of Las Vegas. He additionally misplaced three of these 4 video games, creating the backdrop to take dangers downfield even towards crowded secondaries.
If there’s one man who can maximize Nix’s short-range energy, it’s Payton
Early indicators counsel Nix will get his probability to shine (or get thrown underneath the bus, both/or). That makes a ton of sense given Payton’s capability to maximise the waning years of Drew Brees’ profession however not Wilson’s. Wilson’s throw distance dipped in Denver, particularly when Payton changed Nathaniel Hackett (it dropped from 8.7 to 7.1 yards between 2022 and 2023). However whereas this helped his effectivity he didn’t thrive inside the program. He too usually backslid in play motion conditions and compelled unhealthy throws on the run.
Nix is a clean canvas who received’t really feel corralled by a passing assault the place his checkdown choices earn highlighted standing in his play guide. Brees had the league’s lowest goal distance in 2019 (6.4 yards) and second lowest in 2020 (6.1) and New Orleans went 25-7 these two years. Sooner or later Corridor of Famer’s last season, he performed by damage to himself (aforementioned damaged ribs) and his wideout corps (Michael Thomas missed 9 video games, leaving a 33-year-old Emmanuel Sanders as the one non-tailback to have greater than 40 catches). The Saints nonetheless received 12 video games and located a technique to overcome the Chicago Bears and first-ever Nickelodeon Precious Participant award winner Mitchell Trubisky within the playoffs.
It might make for a stupidly debatable 2024 if Nix can do a late-stage Brees (or New Orleans-era Teddy Bridgewater) imitation and use his accuracy and talent to mitigate threat and plant the inspiration of a Broncos revival. It’s additionally unlikely, however not not possible. Denver’s schedule is plagued by winnable video games and the pecking order behind the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs within the AFC West is a giant ol’ mess.
Getting that completed with a rookie quarterback (who could not have Courtland Sutton within the lineup) and rebuilding protection can be troublesome. Payton has earned the good thing about the doubt in relation to maximizing his returns from regular, correct, and sometimes unexciting quarterbacks. However he’s burning that goodwill at an extreme charge. Failure in 2024 received’t mark up his resume too closely, however it is going to have the Broncos feeling a little bit of purchaser’s regret for the pinnacle coach for whom they’re paying an alleged $18 million every year.
