If I’ve discovered something from the brand new Statcast bat monitoring knowledge, it’s that bat velocity alone isn’t enough to supply a high-quality main league hitter. Johnathan Rodriguez, Trey Cabbage, Zach Dezenzo, Jerar Encarnacion — all of those guys, at this early stage of their main league careers, swing onerous however miss tougher. Bat velocity solely issues if you make contact.
Whenever you do hit the ball, nonetheless, it’s good when your swing is as quick as potential. Swinging quick whereas making good contact more often than not — it’s onerous to do, but when you are able to do it, you’re most likely probably the greatest hitters in baseball.
The explanation it’s uncommon is as a result of these two variables — swinging onerous and making stable contact — are negatively correlated. As some most likely bear in mind from when these stats initially dropped, Luis Arraez swings the slowest and squares up all the things, whereas Giancarlo Stanton swings the quickest however seldom connects. A sluggish swing is a extra exact swing, and so the group of hitters who can swing exactly whereas letting it rip are unusual.
In an effort to decide who these uncommon hitters are, it’s mandatory to pick out some arbitrary cutoffs. I’ve picked hitters who’ve roughly eightieth percentile bat speeds and fiftieth percentile squared-up per swing charges. (A “squared-up” swing is one the place a hitter maximizes their exit velocity.) Right here is the entire listing of hitters who common over 74 mph of bat velocity and have at the least a league-average squared-up price: Yordan Alvarez, Gunnar Henderson, Manny Machado, William Contreras, Juan Soto, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and… Lawrence Butler???
Sure, Lawrence Butler, a man who bought despatched down in mid-Could after hitting .179/.281/.274 in his first 120 plate appearances, is a member of this unique listing. Since returning to the majors on June 18, he’s been the seventh-best hitter in baseball, slashing .307/.341/.622 and posting a 169 wRC+ over his 270 plate appearances coming into play Thursday. How is he doing this?
For probably the most half, it looks like Butler is dominating by fixating on the underside of the zone. I don’t know if that is tremendous unusual, however Butler has zero hits on pitches on the very prime of the zone this season. Almost all of his harm is focused on pitches down the center and on the knees.
The warmth maps make this clear. Here’s a map of Butler’s slugging per pitch by zone:
These location-based tendencies indicate that Butler would have an enormous uppercut swing, however my eyes (and the info) counsel in any other case. In line with SwingGraphs, Butler’s common vertical bat angle of 28.6 levels in August ranked in simply the twenty fifth percentile of steepness. (Aaron Decide, for comparability, was within the 98th percentile with a median VBA of 40.7.) As Esteban Rivera wrote in a wonderful submit on Jackson Merrill from final month, hitters typically have to “make use of a flatter swing path on the prime of the zone and a steeper one on the backside.” However Butler is defying this precept, crushing line drives off low pitches along with his flattish swing.
When Butler does join, he typically exhibits a fair spray tendency. His singles are distributed fairly evenly throughout the sphere, and his residence runs are clustered within the right-center hole. He isn’t dishonest for his energy; as an alternative, he’s leaning on his power to hit balls out to the deepest components of the park.
Butler’s stage swing airplane and all-fields method could contribute to his capacity to maximise high quality contact whereas swinging onerous. By holding his bat comparatively flat by the zone, Butler provides himself a greater probability to make contact in comparison with a hitter with a steeper uppercut. And by trying to drive the ball by the center of the sphere fairly than looking for out pull energy, he will get a bit bit of additional time to resolve whether or not to swing.
Regardless of the cause, Butler’s numbers are fairly outstanding. Getting into play Thursday, Butler is placing out simply 19.6% of the time since returning to the majors in mid-June. Amongst his fellow hitters slugging at the least .600 over that very same timeframe, solely three are placing out much less usually: Guerrero, Bobby Witt Jr., and Alvarez. Butler’s bodily power and refined method during the last two and a half months are resulting in outcomes that counsel he can, at the least for a stretch, cling with the most effective hitters within the sport.
In fact, Butler is barely 24 and spent giant chunks of his season navigating the Pacific Coast League. (I occurred to see him crush a house run simply contained in the left-field foul pole in Tacoma earlier this yr, prompting questions on what he was doing there.) To some extent, he’s a piece in progress, and pitchers will make their inevitable changes. Throwing him pitches excessive within the zone is one apparent assault plan for any pitcher. For no matter cause, he hasn’t carried out a lot towards pitches in that location.
Butler has additionally proven some weak point towards sure pitch sorts. In opposition to sinkers, he’s put up a -6 run worth. He’s taken a bunch of them for referred to as strikes from each righties and lefties, and when he makes contact, he’s typically pounding it straight into the bottom. Maybe this can be a draw back of a flat swing path — if Butler places his four-seamer swing on a sinker, it units him up completely to hit a floor ball. A lefty with a demonic sinker like Framber Valdez, in different phrases, is Butler’s nightmare matchup.
Changeups, in the meantime, seem like the go-to pitch for pitchers trying to induce a swing-and-miss. Butler is whiffing on 40% of changeups he swings at, by far his highest whiff price on any given pitch sort. This tracks with Butler’s fixation on the center and backside of the zone. If he’s searching low fastballs, as an example, a changeup is the right pitch to throw to get him off steadiness and out in entrance.
When pitchers inevitably alter, it doesn’t appear unreasonable to imagine he can counter. On softer velocity close to the highest of the zone, he has proven he’s able to placing a Merrill-like uppercut swing to inflict harm. And I’ve seen swings the place he exhibits the kind of bat path variability reflective of a participant with a reasonably good hit software.
That pitch was fairly far exterior, permitting Butler to increase his arms, nevertheless it hints at what a possible swing on excessive pitches would possibly appear like. Regardless that at this level in his profession it doesn’t look snug, the comparatively flat place to begin means the adjustment won’t be as troublesome.
Butler’s weaknesses aren’t actually value dwelling on an excessive amount of. Once more, he was despatched down in Could of this yr. And as just lately as 2022, he was placing out 31.5% of the time in Excessive-A. In June of 2023, Tess Taruskin expressed concern about Butler’s “in-zone swing-and-miss” points and skill to play the outfield — but in addition noticed the define of a future Butler breakout in his early-season strikeout price reductions.
“Assuming Butler stays wholesome for all of 2023, his flirtation with a greater method exhibits promising indicators of blossoming right into a full-blown romance,” Tess wrote. Quick ahead a yr, and never solely has Butler decreased his swing-and-miss sufficient to take care of a median strikeout price, he’s even holding his personal in proper discipline, grading out as roughly common by Baseball Savant’s OAA metric.
It’s been some time for the reason that A’s developed a high quality place participant, however to my eyes, it appears like Butler could possibly be higher than simply high quality. He’s 24 years outdated, enjoying an honest proper discipline, and slugging like probably the greatest gamers within the sport. On the very least, I feel he’s fairly good.
