Rugby like life is filled with ‘what ifs’. For Steve Borthwick’s England, the story of alternatives not taken will likely be shut at hand after the primary Take a look at towards the All Blacks in Dunedin. He solely wants to select up the e-book and browse it.
What if referee Nika Amashukeli had observed New Zealand loose-head Ethan de Groot popping his head out of the left facet of the scrum illegally earlier than the ploy had already earned the All Blacks two penalties within the first half? What if Marcus Smith had loved a greater time off the tee, the place he transformed solely one among 4 kicks at purpose?
Coulda, woulda, shoulda. Finally, Scott Robertson will likely be seeing the match in precisely the identical phrases. These are his phrases from the primary post-match press convention as nationwide coach:
“Within the first half we had quite a lot of [attacking] alternatives we didn’t take, we performed some nice footy… they [England] held on and have been determined. Second half, we bought into an arm-wrestle, [one] which we might [never] fairly get out of.”
At instances England might have been hanging on in that first interval, however they very hardly ever regarded determined. Because the match wore on, Purple Rose confidence within the skill of their defence to resist and disrupt the All Blacks assault solely grew and grew.
With you @tj_perenara 🖤
TJ is underneath going scans in Auckland and we’ll present an replace after we know extra data pic.twitter.com/vi4Tj8jZab
— All Blacks (@AllBlacks) July 7, 2024
The query of whether or not a New Zealand offence nurtured on Tremendous Rugby success can break down the perfect of blitz from throughout the globe remains to be alive and effectively. It has been thus ever since 2017, when the British and Irish Lions defence coach Andy Farrell [now head honcho with Ireland] first introduced the true that means of line pace to the shaky isles.
On that tour Farrell Senior’s costs conceded solely 5 tries in a drawn three-Take a look at collection, and 18 tries in 10 tour video games general. It was not the try-scoring return New Zealand supporters had come to anticipate. Since then, South Africa have packed their baggage and headed north, and Rassie Erasmus’ Springboks have risen to the highest of the worldwide recreation on the again of a rabid blitzing defence which has offered the platform for 2 consecutive World Cup triumphs.
Felix Jones, the Kilkenny-born teaching advisor for these two victories in 2019 and 2023, is now the English defence coach, and he has introduced a fully-fledged model of the Springbok blitz with him to pricey outdated Blighty. The questions surrounding New Zealand’s capability to take care of the type of aggressive defensive buildings they don’t expertise in Tremendous Rugby will solely intensify. ‘Razor’ once more:
“It undoubtedly wasn’t Tremendous Rugby, was it?… You don’t really feel their line pace, there are solely a few groups on this planet – South Africa are the one different one – with that real pace on the second and third move. They’ll go and get ya with that ball within the air [on the pass].”
When the ex-Crusaders man sits down together with his assistant coaches for a full analytical debrief, he’ll most likely not take pleasure in studying the offensive stats the All Blacks backroom employees drop in entrance of him.
Regardless of constructing 46 additional rucks and setting sail on 52 extra carries than the boys in white, New Zealand had fewer metres to indicate for his or her efforts – 334m to England’s 349m. Fly-half Damian McKenzie had solely three defenders crushed, and no clear breaks or busts within the 52 bits of possession he acquired. However maybe essentially the most un-All Black statistic of all was the sheer quantity of kicking: 34 kicks for 1004m, a determine near-identical to Borthwick’s championship-winning membership Leicester Tigers in 2021-22 – effectively earlier than the Cumbrian’s Damascene second.
New Zealand kicked the ball 12 instances in open play within the last 20 minutes alone, a interval when they’re usually used to confirming their superiority on their very own patch, and operating away from their opponents, each actually and figuratively. The eyes of Ex-England and Lions centre Will Greenwood lit up on the analytical banquet served within the Sky Sports activities studio after the match: “England are solely going to double down on this defensive system”.
Nick Evans has a foot in each camps. In his enjoying profession he was an excellent long-time back-up to the legendary Dan Carter, however all his seven years in teaching have been spent as an attacking assistant in England with Harlequins, and for a quick spell with the nationwide facet. His offensive mind was already working additional time, chewing the fats and searching for loopholes on the post-match smorgasbord.
“If you’re New Zealand, you’re pondering – how are we going to use this [defensive] line pace subsequent week [at Eden Park]?
“[In the] second half they bought a little bit bit responsible of going side-to side-too early, they usually fell right into a lure.
“Typically it seems like there’s some area on the market, however it’s idiot’s gold. The duvet defence can scramble and the full-back closes [down from the backfield].
“They bought quite a lot of pay from these ‘punch’ performs narrowing the defence in and across the ruck within the first half – [left wing] Mark Telea coming in on the pick-and-go, [scrum-half] TJ Perenara enjoying little [passes] across the ruck, which might intensify any narrowness on the sting.
“It will likely be fascinating to see if they’re extra direct at Eden Park.”
What does Evans imply by sieving for the idiot’s gold on the sting of the sector? Listed below are a few examples, one early, one late on within the recreation.
Within the first clip, the final two England defenders [number 13 Henry Slade, and right wing Immanuel Feyi-Waboso] are each embarking on a steep blitz from the sideline into midfield. However the 20m of depth between McKenzie and the second ball-player [Rieko Ioane] imply by the point the ball has reached Telea on the left edge, he’s confronted by three scramble defenders and promptly robbed involved by Maro Itoje. Idiot’s gold is dropping the battle to realize time and territory within the motion of the ball from one sideline to the opposite.
Within the second occasion, the All Blacks make no fewer than seven passes from midfield out in the direction of the left touchline, solely to drop the ball into the fingers of a prop [Ofa Tu’ungafasi] with no internet acquire in metres.
On different events, the depth of the New Zealand assault offered no added safety from an onrushing England midfield and it didn’t dimmish the danger of an interception. The additional the All Blacks retreated, the tougher the Englishmen chased them down.
There are one other 20m of depth between McKenzie and his second receiver Jordie Barrett within the first instance, nevertheless it doesn’t deter Slade from driving straight on to the Hurricanes centre and really almost creating an interception strive for the Exeter man outdoors him. Shut, however no cigar.
Within the second of the 2 clips, the All Blacks have simply gained a turnover deep in their very own finish, and inside centre Ollie Lawrence makes a beeline straight for the Chiefs’ mercurial playmaker, jagging from out to in. The surface of the sector will care for itself if he can create sufficient mayhem within the center. As soon as once more, it’s unsure which group is operating the larger threat on the runback on this state of affairs.
By the end, England have been even in a position to deny the crosskick, the quickest technique of getting the ball to an edge, and a ploy which the All Blacks had utilised to attain a superb opening strive of the sport.
Each groups can have some considerations in regards to the efficiency of their 10 after the primary Take a look at. Smith and McKenzie managed a depressing 40% goal-kicking success charge between them; the Chiefs man got here no nearer to fixing the conundrum of a dedicated rush defence than Beauden Barrett had within the 2017 Lions collection, whereas the Harlequins’ pivot nonetheless doesn’t look completely comfy in his personal pores and skin roaming the often-claustrophobic corridors of the worldwide recreation.
He missed a golden alternative within the first half after an extended break down the England proper.
Within the second interval Smith used a stupendous double-pump to lever open a hall for Chandler Cunningham-South within the build-up to England’s second strive; if he had probed the hole himself, or made the identical move to Slade on this event it’s laborious to see how England wouldn’t have walked in to attain. Woulda, coulda, shoulda.
There are extra questions than solutions on each side of the fence. Do Smith and McKenzie have what it takes to run the nationwide cutter? Can the All Blacks break the spell of blitz defence after they don’t see it of their home competitors? Can Borthwick’s costs break the hoodoo and win a Take a look at at Eden Park? The what ifs proliferate, and the destiny of this collection is way from written.
