Can historical past assist us establish the almost certainly winner of Saturday’s $500,000, Grade 2 Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes at Honest Grounds? You guess it will possibly.
The 1 1/16-mile Highway to the Kentucky Derby Offered by Woodford Reserve qualifier has drawn a aggressive 13-horse area. However after reviewing the previous 15 editions of the Risen Star, we’ve recognized half a dozen historic tendencies that can be utilized to establish the important thing contenders within the 2025 renewal.
Horses with tactical pace carry out effectively
Whereas no single operating type boasts a robust benefit within the Risen Star, it must be famous that horses positioned within the entrance half of the sector after the opening half-mile have received 10 of the final 15 editions of the race. That features eight winners who have been positioned first, second, or third after half a mile.
|
Yr |
Winner |
Place after first 1/2-mile |
1/2-mile & 3/4-mile occasions (monitor situation) |
|
2024 |
Sierra Leone |
9th by 6.25 lengths (12 starters) |
49.67, 1:14.74 (sloppy) |
|
2023 |
Angel of Empire |
9th by 5.75 lengths (14 starters) |
47.50, 1:12.21 (quick) |
|
2022 |
Epicenter |
1st by 1 size (10 starters) |
47.97, 1:12.25 (quick) |
|
2021 |
Mandaloun |
3rd by 2 lengths (11 starters) |
48.45, 1:12.74 (quick) |
|
2020 (Division #2 |
Modernist |
2nd by 0.5 lengths (11 starters) |
48.57, 1:12.62 (quick) |
|
2020 (Division #1) |
Mr. Monomoy |
1st by 0.5 lengths (11 starters) |
48.57, 1:12.85 (quick) |
|
2019 |
Battle of Will |
2nd by 2.5 lengths (14 starters) |
47.36, 1:12.20 (quick) |
|
2018 |
Bravazo |
2nd by a head (9 starters) |
47.96, 1:12.85 (quick) |
|
2017 |
Girvin |
5th by 9.5 lengths (11 starters) |
47.02, 1:11.98 (quick) |
|
2016 |
Gun Runner |
4th by 4.5 lengths (11 starters) |
46.38, 1:11.33 (quick) |
|
2015 |
Worldwide Star |
6th by 6.5 lengths (9 starters) |
47.08, 1:12.16 (quick) |
|
2014 |
Intense Vacation |
7th by 6 lengths (14 starters) |
48.14, 1:13.00 (quick) |
|
2013 |
Ive Struck a Nerve |
11th by 7 lengths (12 starters) |
48.34, 1:12.74 (quick) |
|
2012 |
El Padrino |
3rd by 3 lengths (11 starters) |
48.72, 1:13.15 (quick) |
|
2011 |
Mucho Macho Man |
2nd by 1.5 lengths (10 starters) |
49.24, 1:13.65 (quick) |
Longshot winners and runners-up aren’t unusual
Favorites win the Risen Star from time to time, however their 4-for-15 (27%) report since 2011 isn’t outstanding. Longshots usually outrun expectations on this race, with the final 15 editions producing wins from Ive Struck a Nerve (135.20-1), Bravazo (21-1), Angel of Empire (13.70-1), and Modernist (12.80-1) plus runner-up finishes from Snapper Sinclair (41.70-1), Forevamo (40.60-1), Solar Thunder (16.60-1), and Albano (13.60-1).
The Lecomte Stakes is a key prep
Six of the final 15 editions of the Risen Star (40%) have been received by horses exiting the Lecomte Stakes at Honest Grounds. These six horses are Epicenter (2022), Mandaloun (2021), Mr. Monomoy (2020), Battle of Will (2019), Worldwide Star (2015), and Ive Struck a Nerve (2013).
Stakes-experienced runners have a bonus
It’s unusual for horses with out expertise competing on the stakes stage to win the Risen Star. No fewer than 14 of the final 15 winners had beforehand contested not less than one stakes race. The one exception was Modernist, a maiden winner who received the slower of two Risen Star divisions in 2020.
Favor horses who ran in January or February
Do you know 13 of the final 15 Risen Star winners prepped with a race in both January or February? Throughout this timeframe, solely Gun Runner (2016) and Sierra Leone (2024) managed to win the Risen Star of their first run of the season, and people two have been excellent abilities who went on to change into Eclipse Award winners.
Help coach Brad Cox and jockey Florent Geroux
Coach Brad Cox and jockey Florent Geroux have loved sturdy success in current runnings of the Risen Star.
Cox has received the race thrice with Mr. Monomoy (2020), Mandaloun (2021), and Angel of Empire (2023). Geroux has likewise secured three wins, guiding Mr. Monomoy and Mandaloun in addition to Gun Runner (2016).
Conclusions
Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity winner #4 East Avenue and Iroquois Stakes conqueror #2 Jonathan’s Manner are the anticipated Risen Star favorites. However neither one has raced this 12 months, so historical past suggests they’re at an obstacle.
The perfect match for the historic profile of a Risen Star winner is #9 Constructed, runner-up by a neck within the Jan. 18 Lecomte Stakes. Tactical pace is a robust swimsuit for Constructed; two begins again he received the Gun Runner Stakes at Honest Grounds by 6 ¾ lengths after main from begin to end. His stakes expertise and powerful current race recommend he’ll be formidable within the Risen Star.
In the meantime, #1 American Promise looms as a dwell longshot. Two begins again, he received a quick maiden particular weight on the lead at Oaklawn Park. Final day trip, he completed sixth within the Jan. 25 Grade 3 Southwest Stakes after breaking slowly and advancing right into a scorching tempo. Together with his tactical pace, stakes expertise, current race, and lengthy odds, American Promise has loads to supply from a historic perspective.
Benefit from the race!
