The San Francisco 49ers had been embarrassed on Sunday Night time Soccer by the Buffalo Payments. There’s no different solution to sugar coat it. Dominated in all three phases of the sport, Kyle Shanahan and Co. suffered the indignity of not solely being crushed by 25 factors, however watching as their opponents coasted so simply that they subbed in Mitchell Trubisky to permit Josh Allen to take his victory lap.
There’s no query the Payments are a fantastic staff, one with official Tremendous Bowl potential — however the 49ers had been speculated to be as properly. Now they’re 5-7, the season is successfully over with the information that Christian McCaffrey is probably going carried out for the rest of the season with a PCL damage. Reasonably than viewing this staff as one of many class organizations of the NFC, we now have to ponder whether or not accidents, age, and the collapse of Shanahan’s system has induced the 49ers’ window to slam shut — and maybe extra importantly: Is there a solution to open it once more?
The precipitous fall of the 49ers
A lot has been manufactured from the offensive woes of San Francisco this season, and people came about to make sure. The lack of McCaffrey for almost all of 2024 is one thing the staff has struggled to cope with, however this staff has additionally contended a down 12 months from Brandon Aiyuk, in addition to a major regression by Brock Purdy which has turned their offense from third within the NFL in scoring a 12 months in the past, to fifteenth in 2024.
Whereas the offense has garnered nearly all of headlines, it’s the collapse of the 49ers’ protection that has been most profound in 2024. In comparison with a 12 months in the past the staff is, properly, tender. San Francisco has all the time executed a reasonably fundamental, however brutally efficient defensive system. They bend towards the cross within the middle of the sector, then tighten up within the purple zone to cease scoring. In the meantime they’re routinely boasted top-of-the-line run-stopping items within the NFL, rating within the top-five from 2020-2023.
This 12 months that’s fallen aside. The staff is permitting 6.9 factors extra per recreation than they did in 2023, inflicting the staff to drop from third within the league in factors allowed, to twenty fifth. In the meantime they’ve plummeted from being a That is mirrored by shedding each phases of the protection, the place they’ve plummeted from third within the league towards the run, to fifteenth. Whereas it’s truthful to attribute a few of this drop off to accidents, there’s additionally one other a part of the story which isn’t talked about practically sufficient.
San Francisco has drafted horribly for a number of years
Whenever you take a look at basis of what made the 49ers dominant it was their completely stellar mid-round drafting firstly of Shanahan’s tenure. San Francisco executed higher than any staff after the primary day, primarily filling their roster with stars from the 2nd and third days of the NFL Draft. For 3 years from 2017-2020 their mid-round drafting is a who’s-who of key starters and important contributors.
- George Kittle (Fifth spherical, 2017)
- D.J. Jones (sixth spherical, 2017)
- Fred Warner (third spherical, 2018)
- Dre Greenlaw (Fifth spherical, 2019)
These are simply the standout gamers. As well as the 49ers discovered dozens of helpful, short-term contributors to bolster their roster who’ve since moved on to different groups. Nonetheless, starting with the 2021 NFL Draft it’s been drought for San Francisco.
A lot is manufactured from discovering Brock Purdy within the seventh spherical of the 2022 NFL Draft that it’s given everybody collective amnesia that outdoors of Purdy this staff has struggled to search out anybody of observe. Of the THIRTY FOUR gamers the staff has drafted from 2021 to 2024 Purdy is the one man who remotely seems to be like a star, with Talanoa Hufanga being the one different man you could possibly actually give credit score as being legit.
This has led to a profound useful resource drain to the 49ers. They saved up their turn-and-burn roster strategy of letting guys depart and restocking with the draft, however the concern is that they merely stopped drafting properly. That has intensified the fall-off as a result of accidents, which in flip has taken away a variety of the magic.
It’s troublesome to essentially see anybody within the 49ers system proper now who appears destined to be a star. Ricky Pearsall may turn into a good receiver, however he merely doesn’t look practically as impactful as Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk had been on the group. In the meantime the defensive aspect of the ball is missing anybody who seems to be poised for greatness.
Drafting Purdy was the best cowl for the 49ers to keep away from criticism over buying and selling up and taking Trey Lance with the No. 3 decide in 2021, and Purdy has continued to be placed on a pedestal for instance of San Francisco’s drafting greatness, whereas the truth is that they’ve been extraordinarily unhealthy at drafting for 3 years in a row.
Age is catching up with them
The 49ers entered the 2024 NFL season ranked Fifth-oldest within the league, with a mean age of 26.88. The difficulty the staff now faces is that they’re getting previous and banged up at their most important positions.
Trent Williams retains the offensive line afloat, and at this level he’s taking part in on borrowed time. Williams is destined to be a Corridor of Fame left sort out, however at age 36 he realistically solely has one or two more practical years left within the tank, at most. When he goes the offensive line will plummet, and we’ve already seen the 49ers be less-than-stellar this season each in cross manufacturing, and run blocking.
At this level it’s inconceivable to know what Christian McCaffrey’s future is. Put on-and-tear is beginning to meet up with him, and with over 1,300 carries and 200 receptions on his physique it’s trying more and more dicey whether or not or not he’ll be capable to stay efficient.
Leonard Floyd, George Kittle, Kyle Juszczyk, De’Vondre Campbell — all starters over the age of 30 with no strong backup plan in place.
If this staff is struggling with these guys, there’s not a lot past hope that tells you they’ll be capable to flip it throughout as they start to say no.
There’s additionally the query of Shanahan’s offense
As soon as seen because the gold customary of offensive innovation, the Shanahan West Coast offense is beginning to lose its shine. That’s not simply occurring in San Francisco, however down each department of his teaching tree.
The groups operating variations of the Shanahan offense with former coordinator below his tutelage are all struggling to persistently rating in 2024.
- Texans: 23.7 pts (twelfth)
- 49ers: 22.5 pts (fifteenth)
- Rams 21.2 pts (twentieth)
- Dolphins: 19.3 pts (twenty fourth)
In the meantime the highest scoring groups within the NFL, the Lions, Payments, and Ravens are both operating Erhardt-Perkins or Air Coryell. Defenses have realized to counter the Shanahan offense by getting extra athletic at linebacker, including lateral pace, and shutting down explosive performs that come after the catch. We’re again to pounding the ball inside on the run, and establishing deep passes via the air.
That’s not one thing you possibly can simply swap to and from in a single day, and if this development continues it’s troublesome to see how the 49ers can retool their offense to hold.
The 49ers can nonetheless be good, but it surely’s getting tougher to see a path ahead
The profound quantity of accidents San Francisco has sustained is inconceivable to disregard. This goes past the straightforward “everyone seems to be beat up this time of 12 months” phrasing, due to how profound the damage influence to this staff has been.
That mentioned, it’s troublesome to see what the following step for the 49ers will likely be — even when wholesome. Age is catching up with them, unhealthy drafting is catching up with them, the scheme is getting stale, and it’s beginning to turn into unclear if Brock Purdy actually is the man. Time may show this incorrect, but it surely’s starting to look an terrible lot like Kyle Shanahan’s staff is regressing, and there’s no solution to cease the downward spiral.
The NFC West remains to be a weak division. There’s completely a method this staff can return to the playoffs and make an influence as soon as extra. Nonetheless, proper now it seems to be much more just like the 49ers are set on a path to fade just like the Cowboys or Bengals, moderately than take the following step just like the Payments or Lions did. That’s merely the truth proper now.
