Gavin Lux Has Let It Rip

The Dodgers constructed up a formidable seven-game NL West lead over the primary half of the season. Whereas they needed to face up to a late cost by the Padres — whom they’ll face in a Division Collection that begins on Saturday, a rematch of the 2022 pairing that ended up sending a 111-win Dodgers squad house — they have been in a position to take action regardless of their beginning pitching fraying on the seams. Even earlier than Mookie Betts and Max Muncy returned from prolonged absences as a consequence of accidents, the emergence of Gavin Lux as an offensive drive performed a key position within the crew’s second-half offensive uptick.

Lux’s general numbers for 2024 — .251/.320/.383 with 10 house runs — don’t scan as notably particular. Dragged down by a September stoop that he started to emerge from in the course of the season’s closing week, he completed with a modest 100 wRC+. Primarily based on his general batted ball knowledge, together with a .262 xBA and a .393 xSLG, it’s powerful to make the case that he ought to have carried out significantly better. The important thing level is that he needed to hit properly sufficient to get his head again above water after a sluggish begin that appeared as if it may cost him his spot within the lineup.

The Dodgers have proven nice endurance with the 26-year-old Lux, each prior to now and this season. A 2016 first-round select of a Kenosha, Wisconsin highschool, he positioned second on our High 100 Prospects checklist as a 70-FV prospect 4 years later (behind solely Wander Franco). Whereas he had already debuted within the majors the earlier September, he didn’t get a foothold till 2021, and wanted a robust September to stop that season from being a disappointment, although interruptions as a consequence of wrist and hamstring accidents in all probability performed a component in his woes.

Lux lastly spent a full season within the majors in 2022, hitting a decent .276/.346/.399 (113 wRC+) whereas splitting time between second base and left subject. The Dodgers deliberate to maneuver him again to shortstop for the 2023 season after Trea Turner departed in free company, however on February 27, 2023, he misplaced his steadiness whereas working to second base, and took a spill. He got here up clutching his proper knee; he had torn his anterior cruciate ligament in addition to his lateral collateral ligament. His season was over earlier than it had begun; he underwent surgical procedure on March 7.

The lack of Lux led the Dodgers to play light-hitting Miguel Rojas at shortstop regularly, with a handful of different gamers — Chris Taylor, Enrique Hernández, and Amed Rosario — pitching in. Probably the most fascinating of them was Betts; the six-time Gold Glove proper fielder, who initially got here up as a second baseman with the Crimson Sox, moved again to the center infield in midseason when the Dodgers demoted rookie Miguel Vargas. Betts not solely made 62 begins at second base, he began 12 at shortstop, a place he’d solely briefly dabbled at within the low minors, and he appeared like a pure.

The Dodgers deliberate to maintain Betts at second base for 2024, however Lux’s defensive struggles within the spring — particularly together with his throwing, an issue that had intermittently reared its head earlier in his profession — led them to rethink their plan. With the crew’s Opening Day in Seoul, South Korea simply 12 days away, supervisor Dave Roberts determined to take some strain off Lux by shifting him again to second, with Betts going to shortstop, a choice each gamers accepted.

“Simply to make this transfer proper now, it’s one thing that your complete group feels is the proper factor to do to provide us the very best probability to stop runs and to win baseball video games,” Roberts mentioned. “Particular to Gavin, it provides him a possibility to get to the opposite facet of the diamond… So to get him again over there, shorten the throw, it needs to be much less of a toll on his physique general and provides him a possibility to have success.”

Lux’s fielding proved much less of an issue than his hitting, as he collected simply eight hits in his first 16 video games. Even whereas largely being shielded from lefties (simply 13 of 83 plate appearances), he completed the month batting .182/.241/.208 (31 wRC+) with a pair of doubles being his solely extra-base hits. As he struggled, Roberts maintained that the crew would stick by him, giving him an opportunity to regulate after such a protracted layoff. “I don’t suppose that might be truthful to anybody, to be fairly sincere,” mentioned Roberts of judging Lux too harshly too early, citing 150 plate appearances as a good pattern.

Lux improved considerably in Might (90 wRC+) however regressed once more in June (67 wRC+). He had blown properly previous the 150-PA mark, however his general numbers nonetheless appeared ugly. After slumping by means of the primary half of July, he reached the All-Star break with a .213/.267/.295 slash line and simply three homers in 277 PA. Amongst gamers with at the least 250 PA in both league, solely 5 out of 207 had a decrease wRC+ than his 60. By his Statcast anticipated numbers, he wasn’t fairly getting his cash’s price, however even these (.251 xBA, .353 xSLG, .289 xwOBA) have been nothing to put in writing house about. Solely strong protection and projections for optimistic regression saved him off my Substitute Stage Killers checklist, however it appeared fairly doable the Dodgers — who by this level have been with out each Muncy, who had strained an indirect in mid-Might, and Betts, who had suffered a fractured left hand after being hit by a pitch in mid-June — would store for an improve forward of the July 30 deadline, notably with each Taylor and Hernández struggling as properly.

Through the All-Star break, Lux went house to Wisconsin, the place based on The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya he labored together with his uncle, Augie Schmidt, a former Golden Spikes Award winner and minor league infielder who has served because the longtime coach at Kenosha’s Carthage School. Reviewing footage of Lux’s higher days, the coach and hitter concluded that he wanted to generate extra energy, and to place extra belief in his surgically repaired proper knee. “Collectively, they appeared again at his finest swings. They have been violent, seeking to generate slug extra than simply placing the ball in play,” Ardaya wrote. “To generate the drive he wished, he was going to need to depend on flexing out, or ‘locking out’ his proper leg.”

“He’s like, ‘Screw it. If I’m taking place, I’m taking place aggressive,’” hitting coach Robert Van Scoyoc advised Ardaya. “I feel there’s some freedom in that.”

The change in mindset rapidly paid off. Lux collected a number of hits in 5 of his first seven begins within the second half, and hit house runs in back-to-back video games for the primary time all season on July 20 and 21 in Boston; he earned NL Participant of the Week honors for that stretch. The Dodgers reacquired Rosario and added a rehabbing Tommy Edman on the commerce deadline, however Lux continued to rake. Rosario made simply two begins at second base earlier than being designated for project; because it turned out, these two video games have been the one ones by which the Dodgers confronted lefty starters in a 22-game span. Betts returned on August 12, without any consideration fielder, with Rojas retaking the shortstop job after his personal IL stint, and Muncy returned on August 19.

Lux hit .333/.403/.610 with seven homers from the All-Star break by means of the top of August, a month throughout which the Dodgers went 19-8 however solely elevated their division lead from 4.5 video games to 6. His 180 wRC+ over that stretch ranked seventh within the majors behind some actual thumpers: Aaron Choose, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bobby Witt Jr., Yordan Alvarez, Juan Soto, and Lawrence Butler. Inevitably, he cooled off, with a 4-for-44 slide (all singles) from September 6 to 24, however he appeared to proper the ship within the closing days of the season, going 7-for-16 with two doubles in 4 video games in opposition to the Padres and Rockies. General, he had the Thirteenth-highest wRC+ of any participant in both league after the All-Star break:

Among the many Dodgers, solely Ohtani and Muncy have been hotter, which has helped to offset extra tepid second-half showings by a number of the offense’s different stalwarts:

These gamers have given pitchers few locations to cover; over the course of the second half the Dodgers cranked out 5.58 runs per sport, up from an already strong 4.94 per sport within the first half, offsetting a rise in runs allowed per sport from 4.03 to 4.53.

Statcast’s new-fangled bat-tracking knowledge illustrate Lux’s growing tendency to let ‘er rip:

Lux added 1.6 mph to his common bat pace after the All-Star break, and kind of doubled his price of quick swings (75 mph or quicker). He didn’t sq. up balls with fairly the identical frequency, which is to say that he didn’t attain at the least 80% of the utmost exit velocity doable primarily based on the pitch and swing speeds, however he did enhance his blast price, which pairs a quick swing with a squared-up outcome. You’ll be able to see that the distinction was a bit extra dramatic when evaluating his first half to the aforementioned post-break, pre-September stretch, however not by that a lot. As for the standard of contact, anticipated and precise outcomes, the splits by half are evening and day:

Lux’s common exit velocity improved by practically three miles an hour, his barrel price practically tripled, and his xSLG rose by practically 100 factors. He did whiff and strike out extra usually (for the latter, the break up was 20.6% versus 25.2%), however that was a small value to pay for such strong manufacturing. Because the desk reveals, his common launch angle rose a bit, however the extra conventional batted ball stats truly spell out the advance extra clearly:

Lux hit the ball within the air much more regularly, and he even averted popping up as usually whereas doing that. What’s most fascinating is his dramatically improved pull price, which for some motive doesn’t present as much as practically the identical diploma in his Sports activities Data Options splits (37.3% first half, 39.2% second half). Significantly as a result of we are able to get a twig chart visible from Statcast to assist the above numbers, I’m sticking with these for my evaluation. Statcast separates popups (caught by infielders) from fly balls (caught by outfielders) as a substitute of mixing them as SIS does (with infield fly ball price then damaged out as a subset of fly balls), so within the desk above I’ve aggregated these two. Listed here are the aforementioned spray charts:

Take a look at all these doubles down the proper subject line within the second half, to not point out the loud fly balls. When Lux reached the warning monitor within the first half, it was up the center or to the alternative subject, and it virtually by no means went out, whereas when he hit it far within the second half, he did extra harm.

Pitch-type clever, Lux has struggled in opposition to breaking balls all season (.168 AVG, .244 SLG), however he’s gone from weak performances in opposition to four-seamers and sinkers (.222 AVG/.297 SLG for the previous, .267/.378 for the latter) to annihilating them (.429 AVG/.714 SLG for the previous, .444/1.056 for the latter), and he’s improved equally in opposition to cutters and splitters.

For all of his in-season enchancment, Lux was mainly an automated out in opposition to lefties (.152/.220/.174, 17 wRC+ in 50 PA), and that didn’t actually change throughout his grip-it-and-rip-it part (2-for-22 with 11 Ks), however the excellent news for him is that until the Padres begin Martín Pérez — who’s an enormous step down from Dylan Stop, Michael King, Yu Darvish, and the injured Joe Musgrove — the Dodgers gained’t face any southpaw starters within the Division Collection. In Adrian Morejon, Yuki Matsui, Wandy Peralta, and Tanner Scott, San Diego has no scarcity of lefty bullpen choices if supervisor Mike Shildt wants a positive matchup, however Roberts has his personal levers to tug if that’s the case, with Enrique Hernández the almost certainly possibility. I wouldn’t anticipate Lux to hold the Dodgers by means of the Division Collection by any means, however his in-season enchancment has lengthened their lineup, and he might properly show to be a type of low-in-the-lineup difference-makers that separate the winners from the losers in October.