Of the six remaining groups in premiership rivalry in 2024, none come near the quantity of imponderables that Brisbane do.
So enigmatic are the Lions, so random, so polarising and fluctuating, that it’s fully doable to observe them change into the primary finalist in 50 years to maintain their opponents scoreless to quarter time, storm to a 60-0 lead, by no means get headed, win comfortably and are available out of an elimination remaining as bruise free because it’s doable to be, and nonetheless really feel much less assured about their premiership probabilities.
The Lions, at their finest, are spectacular – however we already knew that. Slicing up the hall from half-back to inside 50 with a succession of spectacular kicks from Dayne Zorko or Darcy Wilmot, by way of to Hugh McCluggage or Lachie Neale or Will Ashcroft, after which on to a Zac Bailey or a Cam Rayner or a Kai Lohmann, perhaps with a little bit of Joe Daniher thrown in for good measure.
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The midfielders are beasts at stoppages, notably centre bounces; when Oscar McInerney is giving them first use, which is more often than not on this career-best yr for the gangly ruckman, there’s little stopping Neale, Josh Dunkley, McCluggage and co. from whisking the ball away from the coalface and to the skin within the blink of a watch, the place there’s a surfeit of fast-running overlappers about to make life depressing for the opposition backs.
In their very own defence, Harris Andrews racks up intercept marks, the criminally underrated Ryan Lester takes one other scalp enjoying both talls too giant for him or small too fast and but by some means not often get the very best of him, and Brandon Starcevich takes the very best goalsneak and hides him in both his left pocket or underneath his proper fingernail, whichever he prefers. Then, as soon as they get the footy again, it’s over to Zorko, Wilmot and Conor McKenna to whisk it away and start the cycle of devastation anew.
When Brisbane play like they did in opposition to Carlton within the first quarter and a half of their elimination remaining, or to quarter time in opposition to GWS and Collingwood within the latter rounds of the home-and-away season, they give the impression of being superior to each workforce left remaining within the finals race. Even Hawthorn. Even the minor premiers Sydney.
The issue is that this devastating stage of play, one which mainly nobody within the AFL might hope to match on all bases, is now beginning to resemble a online game power-up. Like a rocket increase in Mario Kart; it’s a velocity no workforce enjoying usually can get close to, however that solely pops up while you’re fortunate, and when it’s round is merely fleeting.
For one and a half quarters on the Gabba, the Lions powered up; then for the remainder, they did their finest to make a 60-0 lead look completely, and nearly incredulously, shaky.
Sure, the Blues by no means bought nearer than 29 factors in arrears whereas the sport was nonetheless up for grabs – you possibly can mainly low cost the junk time objectives that got here after Brisbane steadied to scale back the margin to twenty-eight.
However had the guests not been so completely not up for the battle from the opening bounce, had they not made a swathe of obtrusive tactical errors in all the pieces from beginning Tom De Koning as sub to attempting to tag Lachie Neale with Adam Cerra as an alternative of George Hewett – had they solely been dangerous sufficient to be six objectives down as an alternative of ten – then there may be simply no telling how tense issues would have change into for them.
In fact, if the Blues had been able to higher than any of that they wouldn’t have collapsed from second after the byes by way of to scraping into the finals with half the very best workforce within the casualty ward.
Charlie Curnow’s absence left a gaping gap in assault – strive as he would possibly, Andrews by no means needed to fear about him the way in which he’d have needed to for Curnow – and of these introduced again from harm as a final roll of the cube, none carried out like they had been price changing the keen, determined kids that stuffed in for them late within the season. (Alex Cincotta would have been somewhat helpful tagging Zorko, wouldn’t he?)
However the Lions have considerably larger fish to fry this finals sequence than Carlton, and a workforce able to taking it as deep because it needs to go in September.
If and once they fall, it is not going to be by way of lack of expertise, nor, you’d suspect, from an insufficient provide of scoring probabilities. It is going to be as a result of the hole between their finest and worst not simply from sport to sport, however nearly minute to minute, is a chasm large enough to suit three Oscar McInerneys stretched out toe to fingertip.
The distinction in stress between the primary half and the third quarter completely encapsulates the issue: having completely, overwhelmingly obliterated the Blues as much as the primary break, the Lions stopped. Not slowed to a crawl, not hit a roadblock, however simply flat out stopped useless of their tracks.
Within the first quarter, once they racked up a 5.5 (35) to 0 lead and afforded the Blues an (undesirable) place within the historical past books, Brisbane laid 25 tackles – their most in a single time period since Spherical 9. On the fundamental break, their stress issue was a sizeable 194 – good numbers for any workforce, however particularly for them, the worst workforce in that regard within the league all season.
The finals had arrived, and it appeared just like the Lions had been prepared for the forthcoming upping of depth.
They hunted the Blues every time they received possession, limiting them to 62.7 per cent disposal effectivity to quarter time regardless of having practically as many kicks as handballs; they received all 4 centre bounces as McInerney dominated Pittonet; that they had six fewer turnovers regardless of having fewer disposals with which to inflict them; and most spectacular of all, led tackles inside 50 9-2.
When the Lions harass like this, good luck beating them.
After which, after half time… it was as if a change had been flicked. Instantly, from the heights of 194, their stress issue sat at 161 for the third time period, and was as little as 151 till midway by way of it.
Taking glee within the mysterious collapse of their rivals, the Blues pounced, kicking three fast objectives to begin the time period and threaten probably the most miraculous of comebacks earlier than the Lions, by advantage of the large lead they’d already constructed up, had been capable of regular the ship.
Look how simply Sam Walsh exits this boundary throw-in stoppage within the third time period, with solely probably the most token resistance from the Lions on-ballers, if you happen to want proof.
The within 50 depend, hitherto dominated by the Lions? 11-19 within the third time period. A centre bounce domination abruptly leant 3-2 in favour of the guests, having been 9-2 on the fundamental break. And as for disposals, the Lions abruptly discovered themselves, courtesy of a 103-71 drawback for the quarter, behind within the stat.
Tackles inside 50? Only one within the third time period, the Blues abruptly capable of rebound with far larger ease and fluency. And with little stress on the ball service, kicks beforehand scrubbed into assault or despatched lengthy and excessive for the Hail Mary had been abruptly lacing out teammates.
It’s doubly alarming, as a result of it’s nearly similar to what occurred to the Lions in opposition to GWS and Collingwood. An opponent far lesser than them on expertise, blown off the canvas early, then slowly however certainly wresting again management till lastly taking the lead halfway by way of the final quarter.
The only distinction in these circumstances was that the Lions had further time and margin on its aspect; the Blues had been by no means going to reel in a 60-point deficit in the way in which the Giants did 30 and the Magpies did 31.
Had these first two fadeouts not occurred, it may be doable to present Brisbane the advantage of the doubt that the dimensions of the margin gave them a justified feeling that the sport was performed, and that enjoying out the remainder of it got here second to self-preservation.
However as a result of it occurred twice within the final month to price them a top-two after which a top-four berth, stakes nearly as excessive as they had been for this cutthroat remaining, it’s clear that one thing goes critically awry on the Lions, for all their brilliance at their finest.
It might’t be lack of health, can it? Is it doable that it’s psychological, that when an opponent begins a run of objectives they’re powerless to cease their momentum?
The Blues sneaked into finals with the strolling wounded, and have been dispatched. However the Lions can be kidding themselves to suppose GWS subsequent week, after which ought to they win that Geelong in a preliminary remaining, received’t be placing up twice the resistance, particularly early.
Proper now, their 5 remaining rivals will know that the Lions might be felled, particularly if you happen to deny them the recent begin they’ve change into accustomed to; certainly, even if you happen to give it to them, certainly the Giants and (presumably) the Cats will know that it is a aspect weak to a counterattack if timed proper.
The issue is deeper than the Lions’ horrid kicking for objective, or their key defensive points. It’s a team-wide malaise that arrives unexpectedly, leaves simply as briefly, and leaves each followers and pundits alike with no concept of the characters representing them.
Brisbane actually are their very own worst enemy. And until he can discover a approach to cease it in opposition to higher opposition than Carlton, it’s all however not possible to see them win a flag off the again of extra one-and-a-half-quarter surges.
