FedEx St. Jude Championship: Betting odds, preview, predictions

If you happen to ever exit for a stroll in downtown Memphis, chances are high you’ll bump into B.B. King’s Blues Membership on Beale Road, the spot made well-known by the legend in its title and the home band that performs the very best blues on the earth. Little doubt that B.B. King’s “The Thrill is Gone” echoes all through the two-floor membership every day, with patrons, restaurant goers, and music followers alike roaring to this most well-known tune.

However the thrill is rarely gone at TPC Southwind, the course internet hosting this week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship roughly half-hour east of B.B. King’s former hangout.

It’s a golf course that requires precision from tee to inexperienced as hassle lurks throughout. Water comes into play on 11 of the 18 holes, which swallows up numerous golf balls and ruins loads of rounds. In actual fact, gamers have discovered the water extra usually at TPC Southwind than at another golf course since 2003. Sure, that features TPC Sawgrass, the host of the Gamers Championship. But this Southeast Memphis course yields loads of birdies, with 15-under being the profitable rating on this par-70 in each 2022 and 2023.

So it’s no surprise that the final two years have produced thrilling playoff finishes, with Will Zalatoris and Lucas Glover profitable, respectively. The fun is actually by no means gone at TPC Southwind; it’s at all times right here to remain, 12 months in and 12 months out.

Picture by Andy Lyons/Getty Photographs

Odds for the 2024 FedEx St. Jude Championship:

Listed below are the newest betting odds for gamers to win the FedEx St. Jude Championship, courtesy of DraftKings:

Scottie Scheffler +330

Xander Schauffele +800

Rory McIlroy +1000

Collin Morikawa +1200

Ludvig Åberg +2000

Patrick Cantlay +2200

Hideki Matsuyama +2500

Tommy Fleetwood +2500

Corey Conners +3000

Viktor Hovland +3000

Justin Thomas +3500

Sungjae Im +3500

Russell Henley +3500

Tony Finau +4000

Tom Kim +4000

Cameron Younger +4500

Billy Horschel +4500

Aaron Rai +4500

Sam Burns +4500

Sahith Theegala +4500

Adam Scott +5500

Shane Lowry +5500

Picture by James Gilbert/PGA Tour through Getty Photographs

Predictions, Picks, Perception

Prime 10 Picks for TPC Southwind:

Corey Conners — Prime 10 +230

Corey Conners has been one of the vital constant gamers on the PGA Tour all season. He has made 20-of-20 cuts, which embrace 11 top-25 finishes. His finest end result got here in his native Canada, the place he completed solo sixth on the RBC Canadian Open. He additionally has two different top-10 finishes.

His fourth top-10 results of the 12 months will come this week at TPC Southwind, because of his large ball placing and strong accuracy off the tee. He additionally has performed this course effectively earlier than. Final 12 months, he posted back-to-back 65s over the weekend to complete solo sixth. This 12 months, Conners arrives in Memphis ranked thirtieth within the FedEx Cup standings, so a robust end this week will take the stress off subsequent week in Denver. The highest 30 gamers after the BMW Championship qualify for the Tour Championship, so Conners will really feel motivated to play effectively.

Aaron Rai — Prime 10 +275

Misplaced within the Matt Kuchar-Wyndham Championship Monday end debacle is that Aaron Rai, quietly one of many higher gamers on tour this season, really gained the match. Rai is fourth on the PGA Tour in whole strokes gained and second in driving accuracy share, discovering the green practically 72% of the time. It’s important to put the ball in play off the tee at TPC Southwind, and barely anyone has executed that higher this season than Rai.

However his spectacular metrics don’t cease there. Rai finds the greens in regulation at a 71.7% clip, good for fourth on tour. He additionally has the fourth-best precise scoring common and avoids bogeys like few others. His tempo of play has definitely been a difficulty and effectively documented, however his latest outcomes converse for themselves. Outdoors of The Open, the place he tied for seventy fifth, Rai has not completed exterior the highest 20 since late Might, a span of six occasions that features the U.S. Open. So, contemplating Rai’s latest success and the truth that he stays out of hassle, which this course has loads of, the double-glover will lurk on the leaderboard as soon as once more.

Picture by Isaiah Vazquez/Getty Photographs

Hideki Matsuyama — Prime 10 +180

Hideki Matsuyama arrives in Memphis with some misery after a theft in London compelled his caddy and coach to return to Japan. Thieves stole their passports, however fortunately for Matsuyama, his was salvaged, that means the Eighth-ranked participant within the FedEx Cup Playoffs can nonetheless tee it up this week in Memphis.

The 2021 Masters Champion most just lately gained the bronze medal in Paris and he has had a robust season general. Matsuyama ranks fourth on the PGA Tour in strokes gained tee-to-green, a testomony to his capacity to restrict errors. He solely makes bogey 13.33% of the time, good for 18th on tour. However the man from Japan has struggled with the flat stick this season, which has prevented him from contending at instances. Nonetheless, Matsuyama completed solo sixteenth a 12 months in the past and misplaced to Abraham Ancer in a playoff at TPC Southwind in 2021. He’ll contend as soon as once more this week regardless of unlucky off-course circumstances.

Justin Thomas — Prime 10 +260

Two years in the past, when Thomas final made the FedEx Cup Playoffs, the two-time main winner tied for thirteenth at TPC Southwind, regardless of rating 62nd of the 70-player discipline in strokes gained placing. His flat stick has befuddled him once more in 2024, as he presently ranks 104th on the PGA Tour in whole placing. But, Thomas is twelfth on tour in strokes gained tee-to-green, proof that he has straightened out his swing considerably this season.

I like that development to proceed this week, with Thomas vaulting himself again into competition on a course the place he has had loads of success. Along with his robust end a 12 months in the past, Thomas gained the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational by three strokes in 2020. Familiarity and luxury assist, and Thomas has each of these going for him this week.

A pair of Prime 5s we love:

Patrick Cantlay — Prime 5 +400

Regardless of not rising victorious thus far in 2024, and never having his finest season general, Cantlay has nonetheless managed to amass sufficient FedEx Cup factors to reach in Memphis ranked eleventh within the standings. He’s nonetheless among the best gamers on the earth and might win any match on any course, so it will shock no one if he did so at TPC Southwind this week.

In spite of everything, Cantlay misplaced to Glover in a playoff in Memphis final 12 months. He discovered the water to the left of the green on the dogleg left par-4 18th, which sealed his destiny. However this 12 months, Cantlay is trending in the correct course. Since lacking the lower on the Memorial in early June, Cantlay tied for third on the U.S. Open, tied for fifth on the Vacationers Championship in Connecticut, and most just lately completed T-25 at Royal Troon. That latest development, coupled with the truth that Cantlay will tee it up feeling refreshed, leads us to imagine he’ll end among the many top-5 and contend for the title once more.

Picture by Ben Jared/PGA Tour through Getty Photographs

Rory McIlroy — Prime 5 +180

Rory McIlroy has had a strong season, which has included a pair of wins in New Orleans and Charlotte. However his 2024 might be remembered for what might have been. He got here agonizingly near profitable the U.S. Open at Pinehurst, dropping by one to Bryson DeChambeau. McIlroy most just lately vied for a podium end in Paris, however a grasping method late in his remaining spherical stored him at bay.

But, McIlroy nonetheless has six top-5 finishes this season. He tied for third at this occasion a 12 months in the past, capturing a final-round 65 to complete one stroke out of the playoff. McIlroy additionally has three different top-12 finishes on this course all through his profession, proof that he feels comfy with this format. As such, McIlroy will lean on his beautiful driving capabilities to offer him plentiful alternatives this week, which is able to translate into his seventh top-5 of the 12 months.

Winners:

Collin Morikawa — Win +1200

Since The Masters, Collin Morikawa has been among the best gamers on the planet, as he has seen his ball-striking enhance to near-elite type. He has six top-10s and has not come near lacking the lower since then, though he did flip in a disappointing effort in Paris, the place he tied for twenty fourth on the Males’s Olympic Golf Competitors.

Nonetheless, Morikawa has executed every thing however win this 12 months and appears due for a breakthrough victory. He has had success on this course earlier than, which leads me to imagine this might lastly be his week. Two years in the past, he tied for fifth on the FedEx St. Jude Championship, ending 4 strokes out of a playoff. Then, final 12 months, Morikawa completed T-13. However Morikawa has not posted an over-par rating at TPC Southwind over the previous two years, a powerful accomplishment contemplating all of the hazard it possesses. So, if he can get some putts to fall, be careful as a result of Morikawa will undoubtedly give himself loads of alternatives.

Picture by James Gilbert/PGA Tour through Getty Photographs

Scottie Scheffler — Win +330

Shock! Scottie Scheffler arrives as the favourite but once more. He has had one unimaginable season, a 12 months by which he has gained Masters inexperienced and Olympics gold, amongst many different occasions. His 9-under 62 in the course of the remaining spherical in Paris will stay among the many finest rounds in golf historical past without end because the World No. 1 proved why he’s the very best. So, who says he can’t replicate that once more this week in Memphis?

In spite of everything, Scheffler performs as conservatively as anybody, not often making a mistake. When he does, he normally bounces again with a birdie, and the numbers present that. After dropping a shot, Scheffler rebounds with a birdie one-third of the time, rating first on tour—Scheffler’s favourite stat. However he additionally ranks first on tour in birdie or higher share and bogey avoidance. Go determine. So, since Scheffler yields no return by ending within the high 5 or 10, you would possibly as effectively choose him to win. And it will shock no one if he does, contemplating the astonishing 12 months he has had.

Jack Milko is a golf workers author for SB Nation’s Enjoying By way of. Be sure you take a look at @_PlayingThrough for extra golf protection. You’ll be able to observe him on Twitter @jack_milko as effectively.