FanGraphs Energy Rankings: August 26–September 1

As we enter the ultimate month of the season, there are a handful of golf equipment on the sting of the playoff image whose play of late has made a couple of of the postseason races pretty thrilling because the 2024 marketing campaign winds down.

This season, we’ve revamped our energy rankings. The outdated mannequin wasn’t very reactive to the ups and downs of any given crew’s efficiency all through the season, and by September, it was giving far an excessive amount of weight to a crew’s full physique of labor with out bearing in mind how the membership had modified, improved, or declined since March. That’s why we’ve determined to construct our energy rankings mannequin utilizing a modified Elo score system. In case you’re acquainted with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports activities part, you’ll know that Elo is a chic resolution that measures groups’ relative energy and could be very reactive to current efficiency.

To keep away from overweighting current outcomes in the course of the season, we weigh every crew’s uncooked Elo rank utilizing our coinflip playoff odds (particularly, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh these towards the uncooked Elo rating, growing in weight because the season progresses to a most of 25%). As the perfect and worst groups type themselves out all through the season, they’ll filter to the highest and backside of the rankings, whereas the train will stay reactive to scorching streaks or chilly snaps.

First up are the complete rankings, offered in a sortable desk. Beneath that, I’ve grouped the groups into tiers with feedback on a handful of golf equipment. You’ll discover that the official ordinal rankings don’t at all times match the tiers — I’ve taken some editorial liberties when grouping groups collectively — however usually, the ordering is constant. One factor to notice: The playoff odds listed within the tables under are our commonplace Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds which are used within the rating system.

Observe: All stats, together with crew information, are up to date by way of Sunday’s video games. The data included within the feedback are present as of Tuesday morning.

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The Dodgers completed August with a sequence win over the Orioles and began off September with an enormous sequence win over the Diamondbacks, their closest division rival. In fact, all eyes are on Shohei Ohtani as he chases the legendary 50-50 season. He added three dwelling runs and three stolen bases to his totals final week, then swiped one other three luggage on Monday.

As for the Diamondbacks, their 14-3 victory on Sunday was a pleasant palate cleanser after a reasonably dangerous week that noticed them win simply one in all their earlier 5 video games. Nonetheless, the Dodgers received the final giggle, taking the sequence with an 11-6 blowout on Monday. These losses to Los Angeles most likely put the Snakes’ long-shot hopes of successful the division to mattress, however they’re nonetheless effectively forward within the NL Wild Card race.

The Astros proceed to drag away within the AL West standings after successful 5 in a row final week, together with a four-game sweep of the Royals at dwelling. Regardless of having had a lot bother with their pitching employees for a big portion of the season, their rotation has actually stabilized during the last month or so. Yusei Kikuchi has been wonderful, Hunter Brown has sorted out his points, Justin Verlander is wholesome once more, and Spencer Arrighetti seems to be like he’s taken an enormous step ahead. We should always have by no means doubted Houston.

The Padres clambered again right into a digital tie with the Diamondbacks after a 4-3 week. Manny Machado was the focus of their offense final week, accumulating 10 hits and three dwelling runs. He’s been rather more productive just lately after a reasonably sluggish begin to the season. With Fernando Tatis Jr. activated from the IL on Monday, Machado and the Friars are getting some essential reinforcements at simply the appropriate time.

The Brewers proceed to chug alongside atop the NL Central. They received 5 of their seven video games final week and presently personal the biggest division lead in baseball.

With their walk-off victory over the Braves on Sunday securing a sequence win, the Phillies all however locked up the NL East division title. They’re seven video games up on Atlanta and have began enjoying a lot better the previous few weeks after their midsummer hunch. The highest seed within the NL continues to be up for grabs and their schedule over the subsequent few weeks seems to be fairly tender.

The Yankees misplaced a little bit of floor to the Orioles final week after dropping each of their sequence to the Nationals and Cardinals. They did activate Anthony Rizzo off the IL, and Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt shouldn’t be that far behind; these reinforcements ought to assist in the course of the stretch run. Surprisingly, they’ve opted to go away Jasson Domínguez within the minors in the interim.

The Guardians and Royals have been locked in a back-and-forth battle over the previous week. Kansas Metropolis struck the primary blow final week, successful three in a row in Cleveland — the crew really held a share of the AL Central lead on Tuesday — earlier than dropping the ultimate sport of the four-game sequence on Wednesday after which getting swept by the Astros over the weekend. The 2 AL Central rivals have been again at it on Monday, with the Guardians rising victorious; that pushed their lead over the Royals again as much as 4.5 video games. Cleveland’s lineup has just lately benefited from some further energy within the type of Jhonkensy Noel, whereas nonetheless having fun with an MVP-caliber season from José Ramírez and a 100 RBI season from Josh Naylor.

The Twins haven’t been in a position to reap the benefits of the Guardians’ ongoing struggles and the Royals’ current slide in a large open AL Central race. They have been swept by the Braves final week earlier than successful their first sequence in two weeks over the weekend. And regardless of all their woes, the Royals remade their bench final week, claiming Tommy Pham and Robbie Grossman off waivers and buying and selling for Yuli Gurriel.

With the NL East all however out of attain, the Braves should now flip their consideration to holding off the Mets and Cubs within the NL Wild Card race. They usually’ll must do it with out three of their finest hitters within the lineup, although it’s attainable Ozzie Albies shall be again from his wrist harm earlier than the season ends. In contrast to final 12 months, it’ll must be Atlanta’s pitching employees that carries the crew to the playoffs and past. Chris Sale is the favourite to win the NL Cy Younger, Reynaldo López has shaken off a minor elbow harm, and Spencer Schwellenbach has been a revelation this summer time.

The Mets and Cubs are useless set on making the NL Wild Card race thrilling this month. New York has received 5 straight and is sitting only a half sport behind the Braves, whereas Chicago simply had a six-game win streak snapped on Monday and are 3.5 video games again. The Cubs offense has exploded for an astounding variety of runs throughout this scorching streak; they scored double-digit runs 3 times final week and have scored 7.25 runs per sport over their final 16 contests.

The Cubs aren’t the one Midwest crew making a shocking run in direction of the playoffs: the Tigers have received 14 of their final 20 video games and have launched themselves onto the perimeter of the AL Wild Card chase, leapfrogging the Mariners and sitting simply behind the Purple Sox. Spencer Torkelson has regarded much more harmful on the plate since being recalled from Triple-A a couple of weeks in the past, posting a 175 wRC+ in 15 video games since making it again to the large leagues.

Whereas Detroit rises up the standings, the Purple Sox and Mariners are each limping in direction of the end line. Boston misplaced a weekend sequence to these climbing Tigers and Seattle blew a sequence to the hapless Angels. Each groups misplaced of their video games on Monday, too.

Despite the fact that they’re effectively behind within the NL Wild Card race, the Cardinals confirmed how harmful they are often as a spoiler final week; they break up a four-game sequence towards the Padres and took two of three from the Yankees, scoring 14 runs and accumulating 21 hits on Sunday. They’re additionally dedicated to giving Jordan Walker common enjoying time in September, a transfer that would pay dividends sooner or later if he can determine issues out on the massive league stage.

The Pirates made the dramatic choice to maneuver Oneil Cruz from shortstop to middle area final week. It’s an attention-grabbing gambit. Making the transfer now provides Pittsburgh a month to see how Cruz handles the place underneath the brilliant lights of normal season play as a substitute of attempting to make this transition throughout spring coaching.

Final week on this column, I wrote that the Reds had made some optimistic progress in direction of breaking out of their rebuilding cycle. That very same day, Dan Szymborski authored an article breaking down Cincinnati’s future; he argued that the Reds are caught in a bizarre limbo the place they’ve loads of younger expertise however little motivation to spend to essentially improve their roster within the locations the place they lack that younger expertise. Their current chilly streak hasn’t helped the vibes both. On August 14, they have been a sport underneath .500, however 12 losses over their following 18 video games now has them seven video games underneath .500 and basically trying like they did on the finish of final season.

In case you’re on the lookout for a darkish horse crew that would play spoiler in September, look no additional than the Rockies. All however one in all their opponents this month is both in the course of a playoff race or on the perimeter of postseason rivalry. Is Colorado adequate to really affect these races? We’ll see. It’s at all times powerful to play the Rockies at dwelling, and the Cubs, Diamondbacks, and Dodgers all have sequence lined up in Coors Area later this month.

The White Sox misplaced their eleventh sport in a row yesterday, giving them their third double-digit dropping streak of the season.