The 2024 Method 1 season is serving up a stable quantity of drama. Whereas the yr started with considerations that Max Verstappen and Purple Bull would once more run away with the Drivers’ and Constructors’ Championships respectively, as they did a season in the past, issues are a lot tighter on the high of the desk this season. Whereas each Purple Bull and Verstappen stay the favorites in these respective Championships, neither title is finished and dusted in the mean time.
Nonetheless, the specter of the 2025 driver switch market has hung over this whole season, kicked into gear early with the beautiful announcement that Lewis Hamilton could be leaving Mercedes for Ferrari subsequent yr.
The grid is in Barcelona, for this weekend’s Spanish Grand Prix, and nonetheless virtually half of the seats on the grid are open for subsequent season. That features two groups — Haas and Alpine — who’ve but to announce any drivers for subsequent yr.
And positive, you would learn what one singular F1 author thinks might occur, or you would be taught what F1 followers imagine will occur. That’s the strategy we’re taking right this moment, 4 drivers specifically: Carlos Sainz Jr., Esteban Ocon, Valtteri Bottas, and Mercedes driver program phenom Andrea Kimi Antonelli. Earlier this week I posted a sequence of polls on Threads — shoutout to the fantastic folks on F1 Threads — that includes a query on every driver:
The place will they be subsequent yr?
The place ought to they be subsequent yr?
Listed here are the supremely scientific outcomes.
Carlos Sainz Jr.
By an massive, there’s each expectation that Carlos Sainz Jr. is headed to Williams subsequent season. Williams group boss James Vowles has made it clear that Sainz is his high driver goal, and whereas Logan Sargeant is in that seat in the mean time and Vowles has outlined that Sargeant can nonetheless maintain that spot, it appears an uphill battle.
Maybe unsurprisingly, an awesome majority of respondents imagine that Sainz is headed to Williams. 84% of those that voted indicated that Sainz could be with Williams subsequent yr, adopted by 12% of votes for Sauber/Audi, and 5% of votes for Mercedes.
Nonetheless, ought to Sainz be headed to Williams?
That vote was a lot nearer.
Williams was nonetheless the winner when it got here to that query, with 44% of the vote. Nonetheless, the massive gainer was Mercedes, as 31% of respondents imagine Sainz must be headed to the Silver Arrows. Sauber acquired 25% of votes.
Valtteri Bottas
Subsequent up? Valtteri Bottas, who’s within the final yr of his present take care of Sauber. Sauber already introduced that Nico Hülkenberg could be becoming a member of the group for subsequent season, forward of the group changing into the Audi works group in 2026. Pairing a German driver in Hülkenberg with a German group actually looks like a great match.
However will Bottas be his teammate?
In accordance with 42% of respondents, Bottas will stay at Sauber subsequent season. Curiously sufficient, “Different” led the best way with the second-most votes, clocking in at 16%. A return to Williams might be within the playing cards — if Sainz finally ends up elsewhere — whereas groups talked about within the “Different” class included Haas and Alpine.
As for the place Bottas ought to land, Sauber was once more the winner, with 50% of respondents selecting his present group as his 2025 house. On this query “Different” was the clear second-place vote getter, with Haas and Alpine once more talked about as prospects.
Esteban Ocon
So this was enjoyable …
The 4 choices listed for Esteban Ocon for subsequent season have been: Haas, Mercedes, Sauber/Audi, and “Different.”
Haas was the winner for the primary query, with 49% of respondents indicating that Ocon would transfer to Haas subsequent season. Nonetheless, an in depth second was “Different” with 30% of the vote.
And lots of of these respondents indicated that Ocon wouldn’t even been in Method 1 subsequent season.
Then got here the true stunner of this train. When requested the place Ocon ought to be subsequent season 56% chosen “Different,” with nearly all of these respondents replying on Threads to point that Ocon must be out of F1 fully.
Will the folks get it proper?
Andrea Kimi Antonelli
We conclude with the younger phenom, Andrea Kimi Antonelli. By each indication he’s being fast-tracked to F1, with the FIA even adjusting their guidelines in current weeks to permit drivers underneath the age of 18 to be granted a dispensation to drive on the grid earlier than their 18th birthday.
Antonelli turns 18 in August.
The FIA even tweaked the rule that requires drivers on the grid to have a driving license of their house nation. Antonelli is from Italy, the place the driving age is eighteen.
Now, Antonelli won’t see the grid this season — though the door is now open to that taking place sooner slightly than later — however will he be on the F1 grid subsequent yr?
And may he be?
A big majority of respondents, 79% to be actual, imagine Antonelli might be driving for Mercedes subsequent season. That does appear to be the place he’s headed, with reviews persistently surfacing that Toto Wollf needs to maneuver in a brand new course at Mercedes. The Silver Arrows boss mentioned that in Montreal, addressing the choice to make it clear they have been transferring on from Sainz as an possibility.
“I feel to begin with, Carlos deserves a high seat,” Wolff instructed Sky Sports activities F1 forward of the Canadian Grand Prix. “He’s completed a implausible job. However for us, we’ve launched into a route now to say, ‘You realize what, we need to reinvent ourselves slightly bit, going ahead.’ Kimi Antonelli positively performs an element in that.”
However ought to that half start in 2025?
Most respondents to the ballot don’t imagine so.
In accordance with 59% of respondents, Antonelli ought to stay in F2 subsequent season, slightly than make the leap to F1 after only one season in F2 and skipping F3 altogether.
In fact, it’s truthful to supply some caveats. That is only a very small pattern measurement of round 80 respondents per query. Not precisely an awesome collection of voters. Moreover the formatting of the questions might be tweaked, because the query about the place every driver “will” land acquired many extra votes than the place they’d land. We will blame he ballot designer — the undersigned creator — for that failure in sampling.
Nonetheless, the votes come from a really educated fan base, who observe the ins and outs of F1 on a every day — if not hourly — foundation.
Will their votes maintain true over the subsequent few months?
We are going to know quickly sufficient.
