Saturday’s $300,000, Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes Introduced by DK Horse at Santa Anita Park is the marquee prep race for West Coast-based 2-year-olds on the Highway to the Breeders’ Cup. It’s a “Win and You’re In” qualifier for the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Introduced by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance, which will probably be held Nov. 1 at close by Del Mar, giving the winner a fees-paid berth to the World Championships occasion.
The American Pharoah additionally would be the first prep race in California to supply qualifying factors to the 2025 Kentucky Derby Introduced by Woodford Reserve. The highest 5 finishers of the American Pharoah will earn factors towards the 151st Kentucky Derby on a 10-5-3-2-1 scale.
Seven juveniles are entered within the American Pharoah and three of them are skilled by Bob Baffert. The extremely profitable however embattled Baffert has gained the Kentucky Derby six occasions, which is tied for probably the most within the race’s historical past, however he was banned from collaborating within the Derby from 2022-’24 stemming from the disqualification of his trainee Medina Spirit from first within the 2021 Derby. Now that Baffert’s Derby ban has been lifted by Churchill Downs Inc., Saturday’s American Pharoah Stakes is much more intriguing as a result of will probably be a prep race for each the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and the Kentucky Derby for the three Baffert horses entered.
Two of these Baffert colts, #3 Citizen Bull and #7 Getaway Automobile, enter the American Pharoah off begins within the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity held at seven furlongs on Sept. 8, a race gained by yet one more Baffert-trained prospect, Gaming. Citizen Bull completed third by a neck over Getaway Automobile, who set the early tempo within the Del Mar Futurity earlier than tiring, and the pair have been nicely behind Gaming and runner-up #1 McKinzie Avenue, who was eager early and needed to examine briefly getting into the flip however ran on nicely within the homestretch to complete a transparent second.
McKinzie Avenue earned an attention grabbing 100 Equibase Pace Determine within the Del Mar Futurity, an eight-point enchancment from the 92 he registered when successful a 5 ½-furlong maiden race July 28 at Del Mar. Regardless of being pegged because the 9-5 morning-line favourite, he is likely to be neglected considerably within the parimutuel betting as put up time nears because of the presence of the Baffert-trained trio, however his credentials stack up nicely towards them and he ought to be capable of deal with stretching out to 2 turns within the 1 1/16-mile American Pharoah. Coach Tim Yakteen has been working the colt steadily at Santa Anita because the Del Mar Futurity and underrated jockey Kazushi Kimura is again within the saddle after driving McKinzie Avenue in his first two begins.
My betting technique for the American Pharoah will probably be as follows: first, I’ll wager McKinzie Avenue to win at odds of 5-2 or larger. Getaway Automobile is the 2-1 morning-line second selection within the American Pharoah, whereas Citizen Bull is the third selection at 5-2, and I might not be stunned in any respect to see one or each of them find yourself favored over McKinzie Avenue. If that does occur, after my win wager I’ll key McKinzie Avenue first and second in exacta bets with Citizen Bull (who has precocity in his bloodline as a relative to champion juvenile and Horse of the Yr Favourite Trick), Getaway Automobile (who removes blinkers Saturday), and #5 Emerald Bay.
Emerald Bay is the “different Baffert” on this race and is 6-1 on the morning line. He will probably be making his stakes debut, however in contrast to the opposite horses mentioned, he’s already gained round two turns, taking a one-mile Del Mar maiden by three lengths on Aug. 24. That got here in his second begin, following a runner-up end to McKinzie Avenue within the 5 ½-furlong dash talked about above. Baffert’s first-call rider in California, Juan Hernandez, rode Emerald Bay in that race however sticks with Getaway Automobile within the American Pharoah, and Antonio Fresu will choose up the mount on Emerald Bay.
Betting Technique on a $30 Finances:
$12 to win on McKinzie Avenue at odds of 5-2 or larger
Santa Anita Park, Race 9, $12 win on #1 ($12)
$4 exacta, key McKinzie Avenue over Citizen Bull, Emerald Bay, and Getaway Automobile
Santa Anita Park, Race 9, $4 exacta, #1 with #3, #5, and #7 ($12)
$2 exacta, key Citizen Bull, Emerald Bay, and Getaway Automobile with McKinzie Avenue
Santa Anita Park, Race 9, $2 exacta, #3, #5, and #7 with #1 ($6)
NOTE: If McKinzie Avenue is wager all the way down to beneath 5-2, I’ll change the exacta wager that keys him on prime to an $8 base wager, totaling $24.
Good luck and benefit from the race!
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