South Africa has misplaced the world primary rating for the primary time since being topped Rugby World Cup winners in 2023 after falling to Argentina by 29-28 in Santiago del Estero.
Their 11-month reign on the high featured a drawn 1-1 sequence at house to Eire earlier than wins over Portugal and doubles over Australia and New Zealand.
Because the saying goes, heavy is the pinnacle that wears the crown. However this particular crown has loads of air pumped beneath to prop it up so long as attainable which South Africa has benefitted from.
Fixture
Rugby Championship
Argentina
South Africa
Beneath the World Rugby rating system the Rugby World Cup knockout fixtures obtain particular therapy, with wins incomes double factors to juice the eventual champion.
Earlier than the 2019 run, South Africa had been ranked fifth on the planet. However a month later after beating Namibia, Canada, Italy, Japan, Wales and England on the way in which to the title they powered their manner into the world primary rating.
Had ‘double factors’ not been on provide by way of the knockouts, they might probably haven’t reached primary based mostly on beating these opponents and positively wouldn’t have constructed such a cushion between the others.
Their 94.20 factors had been specifically frozen throughout 2020 after they opted to show down enjoying whereas others performed. After resuming play in 2021, they held onto the highest spot for 11 months earlier than too many losses piled up. A nasty run of three straight losses to Australia and New Zealand prompted an excessive amount of harm.
They regained the rating heading into 2022 however throughout that yr’s Rugby Championship they had been overtaken by Eire for good up till the subsequent World Cup.
An identical story is enjoying out in 2024, with South Africa ranked fourth earlier than the 2023 match earlier than getting double factors for one level wins over France, England and a 14-man New Zealand facet.
The affect of the inflated rating is ongoing, with previous outcomes enjoying a weighted issue within the change system and taking as much as two years to flush out. That they’ve misplaced the highest spot already is kind of exceptional, however with out a sustained run of profitable is inevitable.
In 2022 we noticed France undergo the calendar yr unbeaten after a Grand Slam Six Nations title and wins over Japan, Australia and South Africa in November. From July 2021 to February 2023 they put 14 consecutive Assessments win collectively earlier than being stopped by Eire.
Eire themselves went on a run of 17 consecutive Take a look at wins after their loss to New Zealand within the first Take a look at of the 2022 July sequence, ending on the quarter-final stage of the Rugby World Cup.
That sort of sustained excellence has escaped the back-to-back Rugby World Cup winners who typically squeak by on superb margins. South Africa’s longest profitable run since 2018 when Erasmus took over is six in a row, occurring twice.
The second run got here after the pool stage misplaced to Eire final yr till their loss to Eire at house within the second Take a look at in Durban, a run which we all know featured numerous one level wins.
Exterior of that there are quick spurts of profitable earlier than succumbing to defeat, even going by way of slumps with a number of losses in a row.
Rugby Championship
P
W
L
D
PF
PA
PD
BP T
BP-7
BP
Whole
1
5
4
1
0
19
2
5
3
2
0
14
3
5
2
3
0
11
4
5
1
4
0
5
The 2024 season was shaping up as probably the most constant because the begin of the Erasmus/Nienaber period. That they had only one loss and had been on a streak of 5 in a row earlier than slipping as much as Argentina. Each the losses this yr have been simply by one level.
But if we’re to low cost the closeness of those two losses as dangerous luck or misfortune, then all three knockout wins received by one level final yr should be certified nearly as good luck. It goes each methods.
Definitely Jordie Barrett lacking a go-ahead penalty with three minutes remaining was a large slice of excellent luck for the Springboks, and the gift-of-all-gifts, an opposition crimson card within the first half performed an enormous position.
A view from one facet of the coin says Jordie Barrett’s miss spared the Springboks the final word humiliation; dropping a World Cup remaining with a one man benefit. A wholesome dose of humility ought to include that realisation.
If Barrett’s kick was two metres to the fitting, there is no such thing as a tyre pump for South Africa’s rating and your entire narrative arc for the Springboks this yr is totally different. The entire sudden they aren’t within the ‘best ever’ dialogue. The mediocre outcomes as much as 2023 aren’t glossed over.
Whereas they’re lastly having a very good yr and can probably win the Rugby Championship, probably the most puzzling of all of the narratives just lately is that someway South Africa have cleared Eire.
When and the place did this occur? Definitely not in July after they misplaced at house to them. The Springboks have received one of many final 5 towards the Irish and simply two of these video games had been on Irish soil. They misplaced in 2022, 2023 and 2024 to Andy Farrell’s facet.
Eire nonetheless personal the Springboks till additional discover. It takes sustained profitable over a rival to proclaim one’s superiority.
South Africa have the current ledger over New Zealand and over Australia, however not Eire. In truth, it’s the other. And the world rankings (lastly) replicate that, not less than for the subsequent week.
Don’t cry now that the rankings can’t maintain up the recent balloon, they’re what pumped the air into it within the first place.
