Perhaps you’re losing interest with studying my by no means ending rantings on errors, however then once more when you’ve caught round for the timeout stuff perhaps not. If not, by all means learn on.
Fifteen odd years in the past I used to be studying an article (in all probability in Sports activities Illustrated again when human beings used to write down for them) about an NBA participant in the midst of a breakout season. The participant’s identify was Steve Nash and one of many factors of marvel for observers and followers was not that he was good at passing, that was apparent, however the forms of passes he made. The forms of passes he made have been the forms of passes that had hitherto been thought of too dangerous, akin to one hand passes or wraparound passes. Threat averse coaches (ie all of them from the start of time) had taught generations of gamers to all the time cross with two arms in order to scale back the possibilities of turnovers. Impulsively right here was the possible MVP not solely doing the alternative of the standard knowledge however thriving as a result of of it. It was postulated that the explanation he was ready to go down that path was that he had been introduced up taking part in soccer (technically not soccer as he’s Canadian). In soccer, the price of a turnover may be very low, particularly within the attacking third. He tried these passes as a result of he had a special idea of danger.
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I’ve thought extra about that idea in latest occasions, partly to attempt to clarify why in (males’s) volleyball errors don’t have a lot relationship to profitable and dropping. I observed that whereas complete errors (for the document, opponent aces are NOT reception errors) have been unrelated to profitable, complete errors that weren’t service errors appear to elucidate one thing (see charts beneath from 2021 Olympics). How can that be? An error is an error. One level is one level. Certainly. But when we’ve got ever watched any match of any sport we all know that not all factors are equal and never all errors are equal. So I got here up with the concept of the chance value of errors. In males’s volleyball, the prospect of profitable a degree on serve is comparatively small. So an error loses us solely ‘comparatively small’ probability of profitable a degree. An assault error alternatively prices us much more as the prospect of profitable a degree if an assault is within the court docket is comparatively excessive. The time of the set additionally modifications the price of error. We now have already studied that profitable / dropping factors at completely different components of the set have completely different impacts on win likelihood. So it appears the strategy could be logical. We would even have the ability to put quantity values to completely different sorts of errors utilizing anticipated values from our league datasets.
Over 5! hours of displays from the first VfB Friedrichshafen Worldwide Coaches Convention
