The Blue Jays should not having the season they envisioned in 2024. The membership performed at a 90-win tempo over the earlier 4 years, making the playoffs in three of these seasons and falling only one recreation brief in 2021. However right here in 2024, they’re 21-26, final within the East and forward of simply the Astros, Athletics, Angels and White Sox within the American League standings.
The Playoff Odds at FanGraphs give them a 17.9% of stepping into the postseason, however the PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus are extra bullish and nonetheless give the Jays a 30% shot. A sudden sizzling streak may definitely change these numbers in a rush, however because the sand retains falling by way of the hourglass, the Blue Jays should take into consideration how they deal with a summer time the place they’re unexpectedly out of competition.
Proper-hander Kevin Gausman didn’t mince his phrases when assessing the scenario Tuesday, per Rob Longley of the Toronto Solar.
“The fact is that if we don’t play properly, this crew won’t be collectively for for much longer,” Gausman stated. “It’d make one other 12 months. It’d make one other 12 months and a half. It’d make a few months. That’s simply the fact.”
There are numerous methods to play issues when dealt a hand like that. Final 12 months’s Cardinals, as an example, determined to solely commerce away impending free brokers and hold the core intact for one more shot at competition in 2024. They flipped impending free brokers Jack Flaherty, Jordan Montgomery, Chris Stratton, Jordan Hicks and Paul DeJong so as to add some youthful gamers to the system however stored a lot of the roster in place, then added to it by signing veterans like Sonny Grey, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn.
If the Jays had been to take that path, their impending free brokers are Yusei Kikuchi, Justin Turner, Kevin Kiermaier, Yimi García, Daniel Vogelbach, Danny Jansen and Trevor Richards. Kikuchi had a 3.86 earned run common final 12 months and is all the way down to 2.64 this 12 months, so he will surely have curiosity. García is putting out 35.3% of batters confronted this 12 months and has a 0.47 ERA. Richards has a 2.91 ERA and 29.4% strikeout fee. Buying and selling catchers is a bit difficult midseason due to the challenges of studying a brand new pitching workers, however Jansen hits sufficient that he may attraction to a membership searching for a man to function a chosen hitter and occasional backup catcher. Kiermaier isn’t hitting a lot this 12 months however may definitely make for a glove-first fourth outfielder on a contending membership. Turner and Vogelbach aren’t having nice years and would want to get sizzling to have some commerce worth.
Even with buying and selling Kikuchi, the membership may go into 2025 with a robust beginning rotation to construct round. Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt and Alek Manoah are nonetheless below contract or membership management subsequent 12 months, as are Yariel Rodríguez, Bowden Francis, Ricky Tiedemann and Adam Macko.
The bigger and harder questions for the Jays will contain trying deeper into the long run. They’ve numerous gamers who’re set to be free brokers after 2025, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette being essentially the most notable, however the listing additionally consists of Bassitt, Jordan Romano, Chad Inexperienced, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Cavan Biggio, Tim Mayza, Erik Swanson and Génesis Cabrera.
Mark Feinsand of MLB.com lately explored the thought of Bichette and Guerrero being accessible and requested an nameless govt about it.
“I don’t assume they’re against it,” the manager stated of the Jays. “They’ve talked to groups about it. The asks had been ridiculous, however I believe they’re going to attempt to retool so much, and utilizing these guys to get items will be the solution to do it.”
There’s nothing essentially shocking in that. Entrance-office members focus on every kind of commerce situations that by no means come to fruition. Given the place the Jays are within the standings, it’s logical that common supervisor Ross Atkins and his crew would discover their choices. It’s additionally wise that they’d set an enormous asking worth with nonetheless over two months till the deadline.
Whether or not they pull the set off on a deal for Guerrero, Bichette or each will depend upon varied components. The membership’s report right here in 2024 would clearly be one issue, as would the group’s perspective on its probabilities at one other shot at competition in 2025. Naturally, the sorts of gives being placed on the desk may even be important, and it’s truthful to surprise what sort of form they’d take proper about now.
Bichette hit .299/.340/.487 up to now 5 seasons for a 127 wRC+ however is slashing simply .226/.284/.327 right here in 2024, which interprets to a 77 wRC+. He has lowered his strikeout fee to 14.8%, which might be a profession low by a big margin, however he has simply two dwelling runs thus far. His .257 batting common on balls in play is properly under the .349 mark he carried into the 12 months, however he’s additionally not squaring the ball up like earlier than. His 4.2% barrel fee this 12 months is lower than half his profession clip of 9.4%. His exit velocity and exhausting hit charges nonetheless look akin to earlier years, so rival golf equipment would undoubtedly have curiosity in buying Bichette and getting a bounce-back, however the Jays wouldn’t precisely be promoting excessive if these sorts of numbers maintain for the subsequent few months.
Guerrero’s not in a gap like Bichette, as he’s slashing .279/.374/.385 for the 12 months. He solely has 4 dwelling runs however is drawing walks at a 12.6% fee. His total offensive manufacturing interprets to a 123 wRC+. That’s nothing to sneeze at but it surely’s additionally not the elite manufacturing he confirmed again in 2021, when he hit 48 dwelling runs and slashed .311/.401/.601, and it simply barely cracks the highest 10 amongst certified first basemen within the league this 12 months. Given the hole between his ceiling and his present efficiency, maybe the gives from different golf equipment received’t match up with what the Jays predict.
There’s additionally the general public relations query of whether or not the membership desires to ship out the 2 gamers who’ve been the collective faces of the franchise since earlier than they even made it to the main leagues. There are some gamers placing up intriguing numbers in Triple-A Buffalo this 12 months, with every of Addison Barger, Nathan Lukes, Spencer Horwitz, Steward Berroa, Leo Jimenez, Will Robertson and Orelvis Martinez at the moment having a 112 wRC+ or increased in additional than 100 plate appearances this 12 months. Maybe there’s an argument for opening up enjoying time for among the guys in that group, however none of them have the identical stage of prospect pedigree nor the identify recognition of Guerrero or Bichette, making it a questionable transfer from each a roster development angle and a PR viewpoint.
Maybe the Jays received’t get a suggestion that’s engaging sufficient to make them cross this threshold. Perhaps they hold the gang collectively for one more shot in 2025. Maybe they go on a sizzling streak and make this all moot. In any case, they’re solely 4 video games again of a playoff spot at this second.
But when they keep on the fringes of the race, they’ve some difficult selections to make. Buying and selling leases can be the simple half in the event that they keep behind the remainder of the wild-card pack. Whether or not to maneuver on to guys with further management will probably be a trickier resolution. It might possible cut back the membership’s probabilities in 2025 however might be their finest path to restocking their farm system, relying on what sort of gives they get. With so many gamers set to hit free company both this 12 months or subsequent, there would certainly be some temptation to infuse the system with younger and controllable expertise at this 12 months’s deadline, if the chance to take action is there.
They’d additionally liberate a little bit of payroll house within the course of. Bichette is making $11M this 12 months and can make $16.5M subsequent 12 months. Guerrero is making $19.9M this 12 months and will probably be set for a elevate by way of arbitration into the $25M-$30M vary subsequent 12 months. The Jays may then pivot to the free-agent market, as they don’t have an enormous quantity on the long-term books. Solely Gausman, Berríos, Rodríguez and George Springer are below contract previous 2025. By 2027, Berríos is the one important contract on the books. His deal solely goes by way of 2028 and he also can choose out after 2026.
Taking all of that under consideration, will probably be an vital summer time for the Blue Jays. Within the months to return, the video games on the sphere and the conversations going down off of it’s going to undoubtedly be enjoying an enormous position in the way forward for the franchise.
