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HomeBaseballDan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/26/24

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 9/26/24

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12:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s a chat!
12:02
Now not a Ms fan: Does ZIPs suppose the Seattle Mariners ought to disband as a baseball crew? What a disappointment they’re.
12:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If the White Sox get to remain collectively, the M’s definitely do
12:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Possibly they need to convey again the trident emblem as major
12:03
Chooch: Do you have got an opinion on house/away splits for starters? I’m not making an attempt to say he hasn’t pitched properly this yr, however the Phillies appear to be entertaining the concept of throwing Sanchez sport 2 to get him a house begin.

Does that enter your calculus going right into a collection; how would you go about planning your starters within the playoffs?

12:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I haven’t discovered that a lot worth on it
12:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: There’s *some* on participant kind, but it surely’s small, and the house/away splits for people don’t actually imply a lot
12:04
Ben Lovelien: Who’s your “unlikely hero” this postseason? Somebody who will simply go on a tear out of nowhere.
12:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Most likely a Royal as a result of destiny conspires to get their followers mad at me
12:04
Jackson Holliday: Are the O’s getting wholesome and peaking on the proper time? Will I be platooned solely within the playoffs? Is Dean Kremer a adequate playoffs #3 starter?
12:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I woudln’t say they’re wholesome now that Gryason Rodriguez is confirmed out!
12:05
tree: which projection system has been extra correct up to now, steamer or zips?
12:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Roughly related. Relies on what you have a look at.
12:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t suppose there are numerous extra beneficial properties to eke out in median proejctions, so many of the work has been targeted on different issues
12:05
Thanks for the chat!: If Trout needed to maneuver groups (and positions), the place does he match?
12:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: DH! Most locations
12:06
Hofheinz: Have you ever ever appeared into completely different profiles of gamers decline in another way as they age? I really feel like I’ve heard gamers whose ability set is predicated on velocity and athleticism decline extra shortly than somebody whose sport is extra targeted on plate self-discipline or eye. However is that really borne out?
12:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The “previous participant abilities” vs. “younger participant abilities” distinction has some advantage, however folks take it as TOO determinative
12:06
Thanks for the chat!: How dangerous will the White Sox be subsequent yr? They’re more likely to commerce away performer and never make main splashes. Is it attainable we see a repeat of historic failure or extra possible easy randomness of baseball will increase their win complete?
12:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: They’ll in all probability be higher. They wanted a have loads go poorly EVEN for such a awful roster, to be this awful
12:06
Dave: Within the playoff outfitted groups article you talked about Skubal being high of the 2025 WAR leaderboard. Are up to date ZiPS leaderboards for future seasons publicly out there anyplace? (As an apart, fairly the leap for Skubal who began the yr with the forty second highest 2025 projected WAR)
12:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: A few of that’s IP – ZiPS solely had him at 103 2/3 innings
12:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Whereas it’s projecting 169 2/3 now
12:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I dont’ make these out there. You’ll have to attend for the 2025 rundowns!
12:08
Idiotic Failson: Assuming the Yankees signal Soto, what do you suppose they do with 3B subsequent yr? They will’t preserve making an attempt to only hope the Platonic thought of DJ LeMahieu can provide them any actual variety of video games subsequent yr, and there’s nothing actually within the farm. Any likelihood they signal Bregman?
12:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I really mentally have them down as a possible Bregman house
12:10
Thanks for the chat!: Who’re the highest commerce targets within the offseason for 1B/2B/3B?
12:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I might see the O’s buying and selling Mountcastle
12:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and I believe Hoerner might be avialable given the config of the Cubs roster
12:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: SOMEONE can be fascinated about India I believe
12:12
Jeremy: Do you continue to get pleasure from utilizing and refining ZiPs? Or has it change into much less enjoyable through the years, because the low-hanging fruit of forecasting has all been picked, making it a lot tougher to enhance ZiPs?
12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I do nonetheless get pleasure from it
12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: There’s all the time tinkering with the issues it may possibly do and mannequin
12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Like including JAWS to the mannequin final yr
12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and I’m nonetheless engaged on neural community approaches to saves
12:13
A’s Daze: On my approach to the final Coliseum sport. Something you need me to inform Mr. F?
12:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Nothing printable
12:13
11 fWAR: So. You’ve by no means needed to challenge a man with multiple 11 fWAR season except for Bonds. What’s the impossible factor: that Choose did it as soon as, that he did it AGAIN as soon as he did it as soon as, or that he not proceed being very superb?
12:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s extraordinarily unlikely he’ll cease being very superb within the close to future
12:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The danger profile is one-sided although for any ultra-elite star
12:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: so don’t depend on a ten battle projection!
12:14
O’s Woes: Who pitches sport 3 now that Grayson ain’t coming again?
12:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Kremer. I’ve a tender spot for Kremer, however I like him as a mid-rotation inning man, not as somebody you match up with within the playoffs
12:14
Anxious Yanks Fan: How huge a deal is that if for them to lose Nestor Cortes? He appeared far more more likely to be an efficient bulk bullpen man than Stroman
12:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I dont’ suppose it’ smassive
12:14
willy adames: The place do you suppose Willy Adames indicators this winter? and what’s the contract trying like?
12:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Don’t know the place, however he’ll do properly!
12:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ZiPS thinks 7/185
12:16
#1MetsFan: Fairly aggravated in regards to the scheduling for the Mets. However what a season. Thanks for all of the chats Dan
12:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: My worrisome factor in regards to the Mets is that they haven’t had their second of hilarious tragedy
12:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: hilaredy?
12:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: traglarious?
12:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: They wanted to get it out of the best way earlier within the season
12:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Like if it turned out that Jeff McNeil was secretly operating a prostitution ring that consisted fully of middled-aged mimes, that might have been a Mets Story, they usually’d win the World Collection.
12:18
Smitty*: Who was your favourite troll from baseballprimer and why is it me?
12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Bearded Wizard
12:18
Smitty*: Are you aware how ZIPS will deal with park elements for A’s gamers subsequent season?
12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Poorly, I think about?
12:18
Champdo: Probabilities Jobe begins subsequent season within the Tigers rotation?
12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Fairly good I believe
12:18
Visitor: I’ve watched plenty of promising prospects wrestle however Jackson Holliday’s struggles strike me as excessive for such a extremely touted participant. Do you see a light-weight on the finish of this tunnel?
12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Sure
12:18
#1MetsFan: And whats for lunch?
12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Immediately’s not a meals day
12:18
mmddyyyy: Will growth come as 2 groups directly?
12:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If it does, I can’t think about they’ll broaden to 31 groups
12:19
Hofheinz: For those who might solely signal one long run, would it not be Framber Valdez or Alex Bregman?
12:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Valdez
12:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Did anybody have hassle getting in right here? Readership is about 1/4 of the same old. I can’t think about I did something THIS week to alienate 3/4 of my readership
12:20
O’s Woes: Please inform me the announcement about Grayson Rodriguez is a bait and change so the guardians aren’t able to face him within the playoffs
12:20
Joe: How are the World Collection odds calculated? The Orioles, for instance, have a 6% likelihood after having made the playoffs, however the Dbacks are at 5% however solely at 60% likelihood of creating the playoffs.
12:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t really run that half!
12:20
Josh: What do you (and ZiPS) consider Landon Knack? Each for the playoffs and for the subsequent couple of years. Is he a mid-rotation man?
12:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ZiPS sees him as 3/4 startery, and I can’t actually quibble with it
12:20
Idiotic Failson: If there was a WAR equal for house owners, what would it not be and the place would Fisher and Reinsdorf price?
12:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: a substitute degree proprietor is REALLY dangerous although
12:22
>this man<: Dan, does ZiPS like every of the newborn Cubs within the high 100 so far as challenge to contribute in ’25 in the event that they get ABs?
12:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Shaw
12:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Worse projection in fact, however ZiPS is kinda fascinated with Ben Cowles
12:24
Steven: Do you suppose Choose will find yourself as a high 50 participant all time?
12:24
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Peak? He’s arguably already there
12:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He solely wants 20 one thing WAR to crack high 50 for hitters iN WAR although, which is definitely attainable
12:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: high 50 for everybody is like 80 battle? ZiPS thinks he has like 30 left, which woudl get him proper about there
12:25
mmddyyyy: In the event that they needed so as to add one other degree to the minors, what degree can be most helpful?
12:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Probalby a decrease degree
12:26
statsNOOB: In your final chat somebody requested what zIPS is strictly and I believe you referred to as it a bunch of non-parametric fashions stitched collectively. Have you ever ever written something extra technical/tutorial about your fashions? Are there any sources you’d counsel to somebody fascinated about studying extra about that sort of modeling?
12:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t actually do technical writing as a result of, to be completely trustworthy, I discover it sort of boring. You’ll in all probability by no means see a proper analysis paper from me
12:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: there’s a max kuhn guide I’d suggest however I don’t keep in mind hte identify for the time being, simply search modeling and kuhn
12:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Begin with a greater programming base than I did
12:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not a coder, so whereas the mannequin is *good* and *detailed* it’s nowhere close to as *environment friendly* because it might be
12:28
mmddyyyy: Do gamers drive to the ballpark?
12:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Fairly continuously sure
12:29
Altuve: What’s Altuve’s fiftieth percentile remainder of profession hit complete?
12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: as of final week, 651
12:29
TKDC: Ought to the Braves save Sale/Fried for a possible sport 162 in opposition to the Mets that would convert to sport 1 of WC in the event that they don’t want the win?
12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’d
12:29
Smiling Politely: Other than CHW’s loss complete, what season outcome(s) has/have shocked you essentially the most or was impossible?
12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The Blue Jays beign THIS dangerous
12:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: roster-wise, they appeared to be one of many much less risky groups
12:30
mmddyyyy: Do pitchers nonetheless have private catchers?
12:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Some do
12:30
Sirras: How can I blame Manfred for the climate down south? As a result of I’d actually prefer to!
12:31
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Manfred would by no means need a spherical of golf to be imperiled
12:31
Visitor: not your fault dan, only a bunch of fantasy seasons over and the playoff races not as dramatic as they might be
12:31
Meals comparability: who’s the “rooster nugget” of MLB? Constant, comparatively excessive flooring however not a lot upside. Moreover, who’s the smoked brisket? Limitless upside however tremendous low flooring.
12:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’d have really stated the Jays, however the flooring was decrease than I assumed
12:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I nonetheless suppose Jordan Walker has an actual upside
12:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: however the flooring is non-existent. He’s mainly collapsed to the molten core
12:32
Foolish head: I’ve seen just lately that many of the finest defensive catcher seasons (by way of defensive runs) occurred from about 2008-2013, which is when framing knowledge turned out there IIRC. Had been McCann, Lucroy, and others actually THAT good at framing or did they merely concentrate on that side of catching when possibly not each crew had fairly caught on but?
12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I believe there’s proof that umpires being extra conscious of framing has tightened up their calling a bit
12:33
Sirras: Thanks, tip your server properly and take a look at the eggplant!
12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t actually take care of eggplant. It feels smushier than it ought to
12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Aside from broccoli/cauliflower which have a scent that bodily sickens me, most of my meals dislikes are texture/mouthfeel
12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Like I don’t like consuming straight avocado as a result of if feels meatier in my mouth than it ought to
12:34
Yainer Diaz: How may my offensive projections change if I moved extra regularlh to 1B or DH? Am I a particular bat held again by the pains of catching or a particular bat for a catcher?
12:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m unsure SPECIAL, however there’s something there about transferring guys off catcher
12:35
Sirras: Re: Rooster nuggets – for a couple of years, Khris Davis was that man
12:35
Smiling Politely: Austin Barnes has in all probability caught 80%+ of Kershaw’s begins
12:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski: What’s the Grimace referencing?
12:36
Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: If the White Sox win out I’ll mix up a can of skyline chili and chug it
12:36
Sirras: Re: eggplant – you skipped the terrible joke earlier than the “tip your waiter” bit! Ah properly, I’ll must be funnier subsequent time
12:36
Trout: I do know it appears completely absurd however is it attainable Choose catches Trout in WAR by the top? I simply don’t see Trout staying on the sector in any respect.
12:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s definitely *attainable* if Trout’s bodily breakdown isn’t ameliorated by a lesser defensive schedule
12:37
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He’s like 30-something behind in WAR
12:37
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and ZiPS has him at 30ish, so MORE than 30 is a definite chance
12:37
Justin: Hello Dan. I’m a Mets fan so I’m extra invested, however I really feel like that is such a monumental screw-up by mlb to not transfer the mets/braves video games. Am I overreacting? It simply looks like this was so avoidable.
12:37
Avatar Dan Szymborski: No, this isn’t like a shock hurricane
12:38
mmddyyyy: Do umpires punish blatant framing efforts?
12:38
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t go that far
12:38
Avatar Dan Szymborski: However if you happen to’re referred to as out as shitty at one thing, it’s pure to wish to enhance
12:39
War2d2: Miguel Amaya had been the #1 prospect within the Cubs (admittedly weak) system for years, however was bit by the weird-injury bug. This yr he was horrible for months, then on fireplace for many of July/August, and is at the moment again to being horrible. Does Zips suppose he’s just about a bust, or will he have some worth going ahead?
12:39
Avatar Dan Szymborski: SOME worth, however ZiPS doesn’t see him as something mroe than stopgap starter at this level
12:39
Smiling Politely: Am I donning blue-tinged glasses in considering that the Dodgers may carry out *higher* in a brief collection (not less than in comparison with final yr’s depressing rotation) as a result of, regardless of the dearth of wholesome starters, they’ve a bunch of deployable, 1-3 inning arms, Shohei Ohtani, and a possible bye?
12:39
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t suppose so. I imply, ZiPS agrees with you
12:39
Greg: So we’ll get a breath crew and a sweet crew?
12:40
War2d2: The Cubs are each very younger (beginning 9 avg age is like 27) and really mid. They’ve some bats coming, however all of them have huge holes of their sport–no “Kris Bryant 2014” in sight. That leaves FA to patch holes. Clearly a Juan Soto signing would repair every thing, however they’re unlikely to pay that. What would make a much bigger dent in getting them out of the .500 vary, Snell/Burnes or Santander?
12:40
Avatar Dan Szymborski: A pitcher
12:40
Bosoxforlife: One of many extra astounding trivia solutions is that till 2024 just one HR had ever been hit by a participant with the primary identify of Jackson. An obscure catcher named Jackson Williams who hit one for the Rockies in 2014.
12:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s kinda bizarre; haven’t like all of the MLB Jackson first namers debuted within the final decade?
12:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m wondering why it turned such a well-liked first identify. I can’t think about it was due to Michael Jackson
12:43
Avatar Dan Szymborski: As a result of by the late 90s/early 00s, jackson’s star was fairly dim
12:43
Sirras: If the Mets fail to get into the postseason, will their followers
12:43
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I believe you’re allowed to go to postseason video games even when your favourite crew is eradicated
12:44
Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: What are the chances the Pirates really construct a contender round Skenes, Jones, Cruz, and many others earlier than they fail to increase them?  10%?  20%?
12:44
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’ll say 20%
12:44
Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: If the Rockies dug a 5,000 foot pit and moved Coors to the underside, would that get rid of the Coors Hangover impact?  Or does the journey schedule for such a distant crew impression them as a lot/extra?
12:44
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Possibly? There are probalby some issues with taking part in baseball in an underground pit
12:45
Avatar Dan Szymborski: they usually’d do much better chasing good gamers than chasing an impact that *possibly* prices two factors of OPS+ general
12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Now, if you happen to put the Monforts in that pit they usually don’t have cellphone entry, that might be useful to the Rockies
12:48
mmddyyyy: Does ZiPS deal with a yr missed attributable to damage or surgical procedure restoration in another way than a yr off attributable to non-physical suspension or retirement?
12:48
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Sure
12:48
WAR confusion: What’s the trigger for the somewhat giant WAR distinction for Matt Chapman between Fangraphs and baseball reference?
12:48
Avatar Dan Szymborski: DRS vs. OAA is a part of it
12:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I can’t actually dig into the remainder of the diff mid-chat although
12:49
Trtaylor6886: I hope the Mets Tragic/Hilarity Second was having a reduction pitcher throw his glove within the stands.
12:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: However Lopez didn’t kill or maim anybody
12:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Extra hilarity than tragedy
12:50
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s like power-speed rating: a Mets Second has to rated by the harmonic imply of the tragedy and hilarity
12:51
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Gamers crushes his hand in an accident? Not a Mets Second
12:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Participant crushes his hand making an attempt to do an impression of Michael Scott within the Workplace episode the place he was speaking about utilizing the baler? Mets Second
12:53
Visitor: Has MLB ever moved a sport to a different stadium to keep away from climate?
12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Sure
12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The Marlins performed two house video games in Chicago like 20 years in the past due to Hurricane Ivan
12:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And there was an Astros-Rangers collection at Tropicana a number of yeras in the past
12:54
Visitor: Would MLB even have thought of transferring Mets @ Braves to a impartial web site?
12:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: They shoudl have!
12:55
Visitor: who from the present rookie class could have the perfect profession?
12:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Is it dishonest to make use of ZiPS? ZiPS says Merrill
12:56
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Observe that the longer term has no impact on my ROY poll, so I’m not spoiling who I’m voting for in any method in any respect
12:56
Dbacks fan: our CEO acquired ripped for asking for $100’s of thousands and thousands at a tough time for therefore many. Doesn’t the FO have somebody who works there that knew this is able to look dangerous? Discuss being unaware
12:57
Avatar Dan Szymborski: MLB groups appear to be devoid of disgrace and since politicians of each events love simply handing large quantities of money to very rich sports activities franchise house owners, MLB groups hardly ever get punished for his or her shamelessness
12:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The A’s aren’t leaving as a result of Oakland took some grand ethical stand about giving them free cash. It’s simply that Fisher needed even MORE free cash than that
12:58
David: It appears  fairly possible Cole Younger debuts subsequent yr because the Mariners Beginning 2B and doubtlessly opening day, I can’t think about there’s an important projection on him from ZIPs?
12:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Not nice, but it surely’s not a BAD projection
12:58
AL Central Casting: Do you ever have a look at team-wide modifications in ZiPS from preseason? As a Twins fan who assumes lots of their younger gamers (Lewis particularly, but additionally Julien) could have worse forecasts after this season, I’m questioning what impact that can have on the crew as a complete.
12:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t actually, just because the development of a crew modifications a lot
12:58
marc: If I’m studying it accurately, Zips projections for Chourio overr the subsequent 3 years are middling at finest.  I watch him virtually each sport and to me he appears like a famous person within the making.  Any clarification?
12:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Thos have been preseason
12:59
Sam: If we put the Monforts, Jerry Reinsdorf, and John Fisher within the Rockies pit and advised them “first one to flee doesn’t must promote the crew”, would any of them attempt to escape?
12:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: They may attempt to escape
12:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But when anybody succeeds, we didn’t do our job proper
1:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: You’ll be able to throw Castellini and Nutting down there too
1:00
Visitor: Are you forgetting Bobby Ojeda slicing off the tip of his finger with a hedge trimmer and lacking the 1988 playoffs?
1:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: However they simply received the World Collection in 1986, so the Mets wanted a extremely huge Hilargedy quantity
1:01
War2d2: PS: sorry for spamming you with questions, I noticed you stated you had much less of an viewers than ordinary and was making an attempt to assist with content material 😂
1:01
War2d2: Re: MLB transferring a sport bc of climate: Carlos Zambrano’s no-no was a “highway sport” in Milwaukee in opposition to the Astros due to a hurricane.
1:01
>this man<: Carlos Zambrano pitxhed a no-no in opposition to the Brewers at minute maid
1:01
>this man<: wait no Massive Z no-hit the Astros at Miller Park in MIL
1:02
Bosoxforlife: The Purple Sox have 4 thrilling prospects. Anthony, Mayer, Teel and Campbell. Is ZIPS really enthusiastic about all or any of them
1:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Sure
1:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ZiPS is worked up about all or any of them 😀
1:02
Tyler: How do you clarify so many Braves vastly underperforming their projections?
1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Accidents are a reasonably large deal
1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I imply, they misplaced practically *15* WAR from final yr in Acuna and Strider alone
1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: (now, they didn’t lose 15 further video games in fact, since that’s not how that works)
1:03
Aaron Choose corridor of fame probabilities: What are my probabilities of making the Corridor?
1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Glorious
1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m already a Sure on Choose primarily based on peak
1:04
Visitor: Is Bowden Francis an precise beginning pitcher now as a substitute of a #6/swingman?
1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I tihnk he’s making a case, however I don’t suppose he has large upside or something
1:04
#1MetsFan: Final query of the yr: Who’s essentially the most annoying fanbase?
1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Are you TRYING to get me in hassle?
1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I get it in sufficient hassle alone
1:05
Justin: How do you price Dave Dombrowski as a GM? He all the time has good groups however on the identical time appears to have a tough time with participant analysis. I believe the Nick Castellanos and Taijuan Walker FA signings the place dangerous once they signed and he appears to overpay in trades for relievers (soto for vierling, estevez commerce). It’s virtually like hes caught in 2010 however the Phillies are actually good so I’m unsure what to make of it.
1:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I believe he’s nonetheless fairly stable. I believe he could also be overrated today on pure expertise acquisition, however he’s all the time underrated as a basic administrator/chief
1:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He’s all the time run a really skilled, competent entrance workplace
1:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And so far as I can inform, every time there are ex-player hangers-on in a Dombrowski FO, they’re there for a purpose, as in particular perception, not nostalgia
1:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Although actual interactions between entrance workplace folks is the product of educated guesses
1:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m pleasant with entrance workplaces and promote knowledge to anyone, however each side are very cautious about how a lot data they share
1:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: me for moral causes, them for sensible ones. I’m not a beat man, however I *am* a journalist nonetheless
1:08
War2d2: My brothers and I have been speaking about what we’d do if we all of a sudden turned A) billionaires and B) house owners of the White Sox (I’m a Cubs fan however from the South Facet, so my household was all Sox followers). I don’t really know what I’d do–if I got here in as somebody conversant in sabermetrics however not realizing anybody within the sport, would I rent a guide to assist with hiring a “good” entrance workplace? Would the league assist with discovering that man? Or would it not be finest to search out Theo Epstein’s cell quantity and beg him to take the reins?
1:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Hiring an old-school new-school man that can assist you assemble a entrance workplace isn’t a nasty notion
1:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If I all of a sudden turned a billionaire, I’m not shopping for a sports activities crew
1:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’d simply take a lighter workload and spend the remainder of the time goofing off
1:10
#1MetsFan: Hasn’t the final 6 years been sufficient of a Trag/arity for Mets followers to get some good ju ju? Unforunately I’m severely asking
1:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: YOu’d must chart the info
1:10
Syndergaardengnomes: Mets and Phillies each performed London “house” video games three months in the past.  No purpose the Braves couldn’t have performed a impartial web site house sport.  It’s much more equitable resolution than the Mets flying from Milwaukee to Atlante for a doubleheader on Monday.
1:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m unsure I’d categorize these video games as the identical style, so these have been deliberate “occasions”
1:11
Tyler: So that you suppose lots of the gamers are taking part in injured? As a complete the crew is underperforming primarily based on accidents, sure. However  Murphy, Olson, Albies, Riley, Harris, Acuna all with very disappointing seasons
1:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: No, some have simply sucked
1:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: however Acuna/Strider loss is MASSIVE
1:11
Appa Yip Yip: Is an ideal sport value 1 full WAR? Why or why not?
1:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Nicely, WAR isn’t actually designed on this type of micro degree
1:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Philosophically, it shouldn’t be
1:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Except the right sport was 27 strikeouts, the defensive gamers earned some WAR and somebody needed to rating the run or the sport by no means ends
1:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Worded that badly
1:13
Giancarlo Corridor of Fame?: What are voters going to do with Stanton’s profession if he reaches say 500-550 house runs
1:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Relies upon how a lot he limps to it
1:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: at his present trajectory, I’m a no
1:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: however I’m additionally not the median Corridor voter
1:13
Appa Yip Yip: Do you keep in mind Base Wars? The preventing robotic baseball sport? They need to remake that.
1:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I do
1:13
War2d2: Probably the most annoying a part of the Braves/Mets factor is that the Texas Tremendous Walmart Dome was empty. They might have taken the 90min flight to Arlington and gotten all of the video games in.
1:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: On that notice, it’s time for me to go out ofr one other week
1:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everybody!

 

Dan Szymborski is a senior author for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a author for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a daily visitor on quite a few radio reveals and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He additionally maintains a horrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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