Saturday, November 23, 2024
HomeBaseballDan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 9/19/24

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 9/19/24

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12:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Chat Time Nice Motion Copter Ardour Justice GO!!!!!
12:01
Champdo: Possibilities Parker Meadows performs this effectively subsequent season?
12:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Relies on what you name effectively!
12:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: However ZiPS does have him as much as 2.3 WAR in like 540 PA
12:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: That he *seems* to be no less than a light constructive in CF actually makes him playable
12:02
Visitor: Who’s the largest sleeper prospect for 2025 season primarily based on ZiPS?
12:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If you wish to go REALLY deep, ZiPS is more and more seeing Shay Whitcomb attention-grabbing, although it’s laborious to name him a prospect
12:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: One prospect that has moved up fairly a bit is Joe Mack
12:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Jared Serna’s projections have moved fairly a bit
12:05
Eric: Hello Dan!  Congrats on dropping 51 lbs.  I’ve dropped round 30 lbs over the previous yr and I’m questioning if you happen to really feel like you have got misplaced lean muscle mass from consuming each different day.  I’m doing intermittent fasting myself and am looking for the optimum interval that maximizes weight reduction and minimizes muscle loss.
12:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Contemplating how a lot of my weight is from ingesting an excessive amount of beer and sitting round, I’m undecided I had that a lot muscle mass to lose
12:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: However I don’t really feel any weaker. And nonetheless have fairly a bit extra to lose
12:06
rockie street: why not FIP- for WAR as an alternative of Fip?  Looks like homer park elements are so diverse that might make extra sense.
12:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I do know ZiPS has particular person FIP park elements
12:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It would simply be a case of stat overload. We have now a lot already
12:07
Jason N: What does an Arraez extension appear like?  This dude fascinates me – he’s enjoyable, he’s an all-star, about to interrupt some batting title information, and actually overrated.  I’d prefer to see the Padres prolong him however at one thing nearer to his actual worth vs. a reputation-enhanced worth.
12:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I suppose I can open up that one since I don’t have any particular plans to jot down a bit on him within the close to future
12:08
RAGBRAI: Checklist a number of over performers and some beneath performers out of your projections from final spring.
12:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I did an entire piece on the ZiPS movers!
12:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: These are inevitably individuals overperforming/underperforming
12:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I would do one other replace after the season, however I’m undecided about it
12:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: since I already did one in July, and I don’t prefer to repeat a few of these commonplace “tentpole” items because it feels sort of lazy
12:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and actually, for one thing like simply seeing who *did* overperform/underperform, you’ll be able to nonetheless obtain preseason projections and examine fairly simply, so it appears a bit lazy to do an article for one thing that somebody can do in 5 minutes
12:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Or, I coudl merely be misreading what individuals need to learn from me, which is actually potential
12:12
man: what does zips say about 2027 walcott vs de vries?
12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: At the least for the second, it’s going to want Walcott as he’s barely farther forward within the “queue”
12:13
Nate: Did Michael Massey curse the Royals by hitting that fowl throughout batting follow
12:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Didn’t the Diamondbacks win the WS the yr Randy Johnson killed the fowl?
12:14
Dk: 4 groups for 3 wild card spots within the nl your intestine feeling on who makes  it?
12:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Intestine I believe it’s Mets
12:15
Nicely-Beered Englishman: White Sox tracker. They should go:
8-1 to be higher than the 03 Tigers
5-4 or worse to have essentially the most losses for the reason that Cleveland Spiders
2-7 or worse to have the worst win % for the reason that Cleveland Spiders
1-8 to achieve 125
12:15
Zach: What occurred to Nolan Jones this yr? Not that I assumed he was going to be a star or a foundational piece, however after final yr, it appeared cheap to assume he’d be a stable participant to flip to some contender down the street.
12:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t…know? His barrels simply disappeared. It’s virtually like there’s a mechanical challenge
12:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Like 2023 was mainly in step with how he was hitting
12:15
Visitor: Who’s an excellent long run participant comp for Jackson Merrill?
12:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Nicely, since I’ve ZiPS open now, his high comp in ZiPS isn’t good (Wealthy Coggins) however it will get approach higher from there, with the following comps being Willie Davis, Vlad Sr., Jesus Alou, Reggie Smith, Tommy Davis, Vada Pinson, Grady Sizemore
12:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ZiPS solely suggests 4/70 for Arraez protecting subsequent yr and first three free company
12:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: His 2B defensive projection is -36 runs over the 4 years, which actually hurts
12:22
dcejoseph: Should you had been the Padres, what could be your most well-liked first spherical matchup?
12:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Arizona possibly? Arizona’s weak point, front-end SP, is magnified a bit in a postseason format
12:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and rolling Stop, King, Darvish could give them greatest likelihood to cease Arizona offense
12:23
The one who asks the lunch query: What’s for lunch?
12:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: This isn’t an consuming Thursday
12:23
TW: It looks like there’s an enormous profit to (1) getting to decide on any reliever to face the highest of the opposing group’s lineup and (2) getting to decide on the primary pocket of opposing hitters confronted by your individual beginning pitcher/bulk man. If I used to be a supervisor, I really feel like I’d need to use openers for any of my beneath common beginning pitchers (e.g., my 4/5 starters), supplied I’ve sufficient leverage arms within the pen to cowl each the start and finish of video games. Is there a cause apart from defending SP egos why extra groups don’t do that?
12:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Bear in mind, managing is a LOT of managing individuals
12:24
Avatar Dan Szymborski: the query is how a lot of a bonus do you actually get
12:24
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Baseball isn’t actually a recreation the place you’ll be able to carve out huge tactical edges, so you must ask your self if the juice is well worth the squeeze
12:24
AJ Hinch: Indians and Twins used Clase and Duran within the ninth final night time in a tie recreation. Suppose there’s any benefit to groups saving their highest leverage man for the tenth?
12:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I personally take the high-leverage state of affairs that exists now over one that will exist later
12:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: there’s much less margin for error with a one-run lead than a tie recreation
12:26
Lavendar: is atlantas Marcell Ozuna choice determination actually so apparent? Jorge Soler is assured one other 2yrs on the similar $16m Ozuna is. hes terrible within the OF, however in all probability higher than Ozuna, and Acuñas in all probability gonna want dh time, proper? i dont wanna lose Ozunas bat, however that Soler commerce isnt wanting good proper now, and im undecided how had been gonna make this work.
12:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I believe you’re overthinking it
12:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: withj the $1m buyout, it’s mainly a 1/15 determination, and that’s a simple one
12:28
Visitor: Who’s essentially the most underrated participant on the nationals?
12:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Jacob Younger possibly?
12:28
Alan Holst: Hello. Thanks for the chat! Nice website. I particularly like your extra plus stats. I do have 3 points I wish to deal with. (1) Am I lacking tips on how to do it, or why don’t you have got  leaderboards that combibne pitching and batting? (2) I believe any Defensive WAR is fuzzy, however fWAR for catchers is unquestionably too speculative. Catcher protection is extraordinarily vital, however the quantifiable metrics are inadequate to justify the influence it has on participant rankings. (3) I perceive the necessity for promoting, however the pop ups at FanGraphs are usually not simply annoying, they typically make it laborious to navigate. Thanks once more for the chat, and your fabulous website.
12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I simply don’t assume we’ve had a variety of demand for mixed pitching/batting leaderboards
12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: fWAR for catchers could also be speculative, however it’s speculative in that there could also be features lacking, not that there’s something improper with the present stuff
12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and also you mainly have your greatest mannequin of protection otherwise you’re merely not giving any worth statistic to catchers
12:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: as for promoting, that’s an ongoing challenge, which is why we’re shifting to a metered paywall. we need to get away from the horrible advertisements
12:30
Austin Wells: Am I an actual RoY candidate or only a product of Yankees media?
12:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: eral
12:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: actual
12:31
Josh: Tiger or Twins to make playoffs?
12:31
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Tigers
12:31
Matan: Hey Dan. In the identical vein of under-performers, are the White Sox (thus far) essentially the most unlikely underperforming group in ZiPS historical past?
12:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: No
12:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: in the event that they end at 40, that’s a 23 recreation underperformance
12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: There’s a -30 (2018 Orioles)
12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: A -24 (2017 Giants)
12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and one other -23 (2005 Dodgers)
12:35
Mark M: What ought to the Cubs do on the infield subsequent yr with Matt Shaw needing a spot to play?
12:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think the Cubs commerce Hoerner for a necessity this offseason and I’m undecided that’s not the very best thought
12:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Particularly because it looks like Bellinger received’t decide out
12:37
Avatar Dan Szymborski: if Bellinger opted out, you might see one of many infielders find yourself in a nook, however him staying makes that tough
12:37
Visitor: Michael Toglia get away subsequent yr?
12:37
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’d say no
12:38
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He’s not that younger and his résumé is weak
12:39
Insert Witty Title Right here: Ideas on BanananananaBall? Simply learn the e-book, it was attention-grabbing and appeared Globetrotter-esque.
12:39
Avatar Dan Szymborski: My data depth on the Savannah Bananas isn’t that deep
12:39
Sirras: @Alan Holst – Might I like to recommend turning into a member and having fun with an ad-free expertise?
12:40
Jonathan: Out of curiosity, does ZiPS use stuff like EV, LA, spin/motion traits, and many others. for minor league gamers in AAA (the place the HawkEye information are publicly obtainable)?  Should you had entry to those information for all minor leaguers (or, for instance, had free entry to TrackMan information for all minor leaguers and will do a barely outdated model of StatCast), do you assume incorporating them for A+ hitters and AA hitters/pitchers would add worth to ZiPS’ projections?
12:40
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ZiPS does use statcast information for minors and has for some time
12:40
Avatar Dan Szymborski: There’s no stuff facet in ZiPS proper now. Working alone ZiPS mannequin is a long-term mission of mine, and it’s nothing I’m snug incorporating now
12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t prefer to throw issues within the mannequin till issues are completely examined, and the method of including issues to ZiPS is years
12:41
Fordy: Are there any vital adjustments in Willy Adames’ long-term projections in comparison with final Might?
12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Dammit, I simply closed ZiPS!
12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I suppose I shoudl have left it open
12:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: reopning it
12:43
Avatar Dan Szymborski: OK, as of proper now (or, although 9/17 extra precisely), Adames have a five-year WAR projection of 17.2 WAR. Lemme examine Might now
12:45
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It was 16.0 in Might
12:45
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Might fifteenth run
12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and 16.3 at the beginning of the season
12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I assume you didn’t imply final Might as in 2023?
12:48
Please Anwser dan: Finest jake within the mlb is it burger?
12:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Amongst Jakes, I’d take Cronenworth and The over Burger
12:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: McCarthy too
12:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: in all probability Irvin
12:50
Phil: How has Ohtani’s projection for subsequent yr modified with the yr he has been having?
12:50
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He’s gone up like 1.5 WAR in 2025 I believe
12:50
Ryan S: So long as we’re doing participant comps for Jacksons, who’re Chourio’s high comps at this level?
12:50
Avatar Dan Szymborski: dangit guys
12:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Reggie Smith, Jose Cardenal, Cesar Cedeno, Willie Davis, Rocco Baldelli, Claudell Washington, Paul Blair, Vada PInson, Rick Manning, Amos Otis, Ellis Valentine, Bobby Tolan, Ken Griffey Jr, Grady Zizemore
12:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski: zizemore?
12:52
trav: On the Whitcomb sleeper remark, how does he get daily taking part in time? provided that they let Bregman stroll? he does appear like he has good plate self-discipline and batted ball high quality.
12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He could possibly be a utility man and sneak a bunch of AB that approach
12:53
Mr. Rodgers Neighborhood: Did the O’s sneak a “backsies” clause within the Trevor Rodgers commerce they might activate?
12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I believe he all the time extra of a 2025/2026 acquisition
12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: didn’t I do a kind of this yr?
12:54
Triple Crown: With ~10 video games left and 0.010 factors of BA seperating Witt and Decide, is there any likelihood of a triple crown?
12:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I haven’t run it, however I’d guess…15%?
12:54
LostatSea: Hypothetically say the methods we view RV, WAR, efficiency, and many others. are all improper, the place would the ‘gap’ in our fashions be (what space of the sport/gamers efficiency are we beneath or over-valuing)?
12:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I believe holes are RELATIVELY small
12:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: a bunch of small little holes I believe are extra probably
12:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: like how are we evaluating baserunning, how will we worth flexibility, and many others
12:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: We’ve gotten a lot of the low hanging fruit
12:55
Will: Many followers consider that hitters with good plate self-discipline are inclined to age extra gracefully. Have you ever ever investigated this?
12:56
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Growing older doesn’t actually match into neat barrels
12:56
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Although that might be a *normal* assertion that isn’t dangerous
12:56
Avatar Dan Szymborski: bBut there’s nothing like X participant will age effectively and Y participant won’t
12:56
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s like these three month climate projections
12:57
Avatar Dan Szymborski: the place there is likely to be one thing atmospheric and X state has a 60% likelihood of exceeding their regular temeprature or precipitation by X
12:57
Archer: Colt Keith is matching his projection for this yr, however arrived there in a a lot completely different approach than I’d have anticipated (common bat, above common protection)
12:57
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He fastened his sluggish begin properly
12:58
AltuveBot3k: Seems to be like Altuve will fall wanting 200 hits this yr, however a reasonably respectable marketing campaign on that entrance. Are you able to replace odds of his attending to 3k?
12:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski: 44% proper now
12:58
Gasblaster: So, what recreation have you ever been taking part in?
12:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Simply completed Trails By Dawn II: Crimson Sin with the fan translation
12:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and that is peak MLB the Present season for me
12:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The previous recreation wasn’t tremendous well-received because it didn’t actually push the underlying plot too far, however I loved the sport’s plot in and of itself
12:59
Fordy: Lindor is locked for the HOF. However how probably Correa is to make the HOF.
12:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I believe he will get there
1:00
Doug: Does Ha Seong Kim get a qualifying provide? Does he reject it?
1:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Sure and Sure
1:00
Sirras: Who’s a participant you get pleasure from watching due to aesthetics, not due to stats (no matter whether or not or not they’ve good stats)?
1:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Arraez
1:00
Kingston: Hey dan Whose the very best jake in mlb?
1:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Wait, is that this a repeat or did I reply a query about Jakes with out posting the query?
1:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: As a result of if I didn’t put up something, that will need to have sounded batshit insane
1:01
Visitor: I averted membership for some time partly as a result of the advertisements had been so obtrusive and unnavigable that it virtually felt like blackmail
1:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: On the finish of the day, advertisements have gotten extra annoying throughout the spectrum
1:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and we both should make cash from advertisements, make cash from subscriptions, or not be a going concern
1:02
Guardcore Clevelander: Dan, how are the cats?
1:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: They’re superb
1:02
mmddyyyy: do you journey for work and current at conferences?
1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I journey at occasions, although I wouldn’t name it a BIG a part of my job
1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’ll do panels, however I’m not a giant presentation man
1:04
laughingstock: What, uh, is ZIPS? Just like the underlying mannequin. Is it one large neural internet? Or a bunch of fashions glued collectively?
1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: At its core, it’s a nonparametric mannequin with an entire bunch of different fashions glued on awkwardly
1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: You could possibly name the entire thing an train in supervised machine studying
1:05
Visitor: Apologies if you happen to’ve answered this in earlier chats- how a lot has Vientos improved his long-term outlook per ZiPS? If I keep in mind appropriately, ZiPS was extra bullish than others to start with.
1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t assume I’ve had any Vientos Qs these days
1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Dangle on, I didn’t shut ZiPS this time
1:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: 10.0 five-year WAR to begin the season, as much as 13.4 now
1:06
Smokin’ Jim Leyland: Dan – I’m shocked extra individuals aren’t speaking concerning the Tigers. They did the factor everybody all the time says groups out of competition ought to do and promoted all their prospects and stopped taking part in their “regular veterans”…and lo and behold, they’re within the thick of the Wild Card race. The best way Hinch and Fetter have managed the pitching workers, turning non-descript AAA arms like Brant Hurter into efficient pitchers racking up the outs…10/10, no notes!
1:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s kinda humorous they traded one in all their greatest pitchers after which they surged
1:07
Dude: Unsure if that is your space of experience however within the final week or so the Yankees have dramatically risen to having the very best world collection odds in your playoff predictor.
1:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: They’ve, however that’s as a result of the divisional possibilities have shot up a lot
1:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The completely different in likelihood between getting a bye and never getting a bye is the largest issue actually
1:08
mmddyyyy: How a lot sleep do you get?
1:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: In whole, in all probability about 7 hours a day
1:08
mmddyyyy: Is David Appelman the proprietor?
1:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Sure
1:08
Dan: I’ve an curiosity in what advertisers factor is attention-grabbing to Fangraph readers. Sometimes it was troublesome to bodily scroll when the advert was large however this by no means delayed me greater than a second or two
1:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Most probably advertisements are studying your cookies
1:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: So if you happen to get tentacle porn ads, it’s best to in all probability look within the mirror!
1:09
OddBall Herrera: Inform me about it, re: advertisements.  There’s a lot marketing campaign cash going round that every celebration has paid an intern to comply with me all over the place I am going and whisper slogans in my ear
1:09
mmddyyyy: Does ZiPS change when the principles change?
1:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The place it’s potential
1:09
Dan: I actually like the colour blue the seems when a fangraphs chatter posts your query.
1:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: My interface doesn’t present that sadly so I’m not fairly positive what it refers to!
1:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I strive not to take a look at names once I put up questions, in order that they acquired fortunate!
1:10
Apparently Yip Yip: It’s a very nice shade of blue, Dan
1:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: In one other shade of blue, it’s time for me to go out from one other episode
1:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming and see you all subsequent time! And thanks in your assist of FanGraphs

 

Dan Szymborski is a senior author for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a author for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, an everyday visitor on quite a lot of radio reveals and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He additionally maintains a horrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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