Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 8/15/24

Dan Szymborski: Thanks these in attendance for fulfilling your legally required duties to seem right here.

Justin: Hello Dan, what are your ideas on the Victor Robles extension?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t suppose it’s unreasonable for anybody

Dan Szymborski: He’s hit so much higher final two seasons, however in a restricted position. However there’s actually a great deal of danger

Dan Szymborski: however theres’ upside too. Individuals neglect that Robles was as soon as one of many elite prospects and had a *very* strong rookie season

Dan Szymborski: However there’s draw back too since he has like a low .600s OPS since COVID

Nick: Why do all the CFs have a decrease DEF on the location than their FRV? Shouldn’t the defensive adjustment be constructive?

Dan Szymborski: Hmm, that does appear a bit of odd

Dan Szymborski: My guess since I can’t actually dig into it in two minutes

Dan Szymborski: is that we recenter common to 0 in defensive projections

Dan Szymborski: err measurements, not projections

Dan Szymborski: defensive measurements

Dan Szymborski: Like take a mainly all CF

Dan Szymborski: liek Kiermaier

Dan Szymborski: he’s at 8 FRV

Dan Szymborski: in case you look down at worth, fielding is simply 5.7

Dan Szymborski: The typical CF in FRV is an above-average CF

Dan Szymborski: and taht 2.3 run changes appears to be like about proper in recentering it

Dan Szymborski: and it appears to be like like LFs have a barely higher Fielding down within the worth desk

Dan Szymborski: than than their FRV

Dan Szymborski: which additionally jibes

Sodo Mojo: Ideas on the Victor Robles extension, I do know the present type isn’t sustainable however is there sufficient precise progress there to warrant the small wager?

Dan Szymborski: Yup

tnst3b: Does Tyler O’Neill at the moment have each of his legs hooked up?

Dan Szymborski: It will be excellent. Unsure in the event that they found out what trigger dhte an infection

Refugee: What do you make of spikes in efficiency (e.g., guys with a profession ~25% Okay% reducing it in half hastily)? I assume ZiPS requires a lot of knowledge earlier than it’s prepared to take a giant flip?

Dan Szymborski: Sure, although much less so in one thing like Okay% which has actual modifications faster

Dan Szymborski: When ZiPS season-to-season calculates a baseline charge simply from the road as a place to begin, it weight these modifications rather more rapidly

Dan Szymborski: Like in 2025 projections, assuming all issues being equal in any other case

Dan Szymborski: the preliminary Okay% charge within the primary line baseline could have 2024’s strikeout charge as 136% extra essential than 2023’s striekout charge for a hitter

Dan Szymborski: however for HR charge, it’s solely 71% extra essential and 1B/2B solely 38% extra essential

Ethan Holliday: How has my brother’s ZiPS projection modified after he’s seemed rather more snug on the plate in his 2nd main league stint? And the way assured are you he’ll be the 2025 Opening Day beginning 2B?

Dan Szymborski: Not as a lot as you’d suppose as a result of these are all small samples!

Dan Szymborski: He’s been proper on monitor

Dan Szymborski: Keep in mind, ZiPS wasn’t projecting loopy efficiency instantly

Dan Szymborski: Although it was JUST sufficient uncertainty that if I did my zips high 100 prospects on Might 1st, he would have dropped to #2 behind James Wooden

Dan Szymborski: assuming Yamamoto is off the zips high 100 at this level

Not the Lunch Man: Favourite restaurant in Cincinnati? The place would you suggest for guests?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t actually eat in Cincinnati all that a lot

Dan Szymborski: my favourite Cincy eating places could also be Nice American Ballpark concessions

Dan Szymborski: thought I’ve in all probability tried a very good proportion of over the rhine locations

Dan Szymborski: like I like 5 on vine

Dan Szymborski: As I become old and my digestive system turns into increasingly more grumpy, I’m much less inclined to eat full meals at eating places

druidiful: So does this imply that you’re lastly going to launch the precise creator of ZIPs, in case you are releasing everybody out of your basement?

Dan Szymborski: No, he’s within the oubliette. Didn’t say i used to be launched him

Matt: If Soto and Decide end 1st and 2nd in WAR on the finish of the season will this be the primary time it’s occurred?  What’s the closest it has come?

Dan Szymborski: This would be the first time they completed 1 and a couple of!

Dan Szymborski: Although I’m guessing you imply teammates! 🙂

Dan Szymborski: now, schilling/unit did it in pitchers with the diamondbacks

Dan Szymborski: amongst htiters, Griffey and A-Rod in 1996

Dan Szymborski: Boggs and Greenwell in 1988

Dan Szymborski: Bench and Morgan in 1972

Dan Szymborski: DiMaggio and Gehrig in 1937

Dan Szymborski: Ruth and Gehrig in 1931

Dan Szymborski: The Orioles swept each 1-2 in numerous combos from 1896-1898

Dan Szymborski: Anson and Gore in 1880

Dan Szymborski: Decan White and O’Rourke in 1876

Dan Szymborski: after which a 4 yr run of boston pink stockings

top1214: How does Zips react to somebody like Paul Dejong’s final couple of years? He seemed completely cooked for a few years that ought to’ve been prime seasons, had a very good first half final yr, then couldn’t hit in any respect, then to being near league common this yr. I’ve whiplash on him.

Dan Szymborski: Typically it takes the center floor

Dan Szymborski: It’s a bit of beneath and the form is barely totally different (ZiPS had much less offense however extra protection), however ZiPS had DeJong at 1.3 WAR in 437 PA coming into the season and he’s at 1.4 WAR in 393

Mike Elias: Which of the O’s lurking outfield prospects do you belief probably the most to make an actual main league impression in ’25/26? Bradfield, Fabian, Beavers, Honeycutt? Additionally what if Bradfield made the playoff roster this fall as a pinch runner / defensive substitute…

Dan Szymborski: Bradfield and Honeycutt are probably the most attention-grabbing

Dan Szymborski: Fabian’s going to drop off *onerous* in ZiPS

Dan Szymborski: and Beaver hasn’t been that reat

Seamus: What do you concentrate on Masataka Yoshida at this level? He’s been good-to-great for the reason that begin of July after coping with accidents, and he had an ideal stretch final yr earlier than sporting down within the second half. I really like watching him hit, however appears onerous to see how he suits into what will likely be a crowded Pink Sox lineup as soon as all the highest prospects begin debuting subsequent yr.

Dan Szymborski: Dunno, I’m nonetheless questioning if he’d play higher protection in anothe rpark

Dan Szymborski: As a result of him being solely DH actually hurts his flexibility. He can hit, nevertheless it’s not THAT wonderful in case you MUST DH him

MF Luder: Assist me end this sentence. Kyle Tucker returns and Houston wins the…

Dan Szymborski: ..prize for being the massive American metropolis with the least zoning legal guidelines

Dan Szymborski: OH GOD FEWEST

Bash Bros: What are the percentages Decide will get to 500 hr and Soto will get to 600 hr?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has the primary at 57% and the second at 53%, in order that comes out at 30%

Dan Szymborski: they’re in all probability not THAT impartial as a result of they’ll correlate barely due to the prospect of any important change in offensive ranges

Dan Szymborski: although ZiPS doesn’t actually handle a mannequin of drastically altering league offense

Brian Cashman: Looks like Rubenstein actually might spend along with his new toy, the Orioles (taking over 2 wage dumps on the deadline!). Ought to I be involved they might bid on a sure excessive OBP OF bat hitting free company this offseason? What different single free agent acquisition would make them take the most important leap from “superb” to “whoa, scary” in 2025?

Dan Szymborski: I’m unsure he’ll go THAT far into spending. Although the workforce completely might

Dan Szymborski: I want to see a run at locking up a few of the workforce’s younger gamers

Dan Szymborski: as a result of the O’s have accomplished exactly none of that these days

Manufacturing facility of Disappointment: Jhonkensy Noel has been good for a 143 OPS+ and a 145 wRC+ in his first 94 PA, for a 0.6 WAR to date. How a lot does a primary 100 PAs like this swing ZiPS for a brand new callup—and does it matter that he’s doing this largely as a part-time participant versus an on a regular basis one (though it appears to be like like that’s altering)?

Dan Szymborski: Doesn’t actually matter, although ZiPS doesn’t take into account pinch-hitting PAs

Dan Szymborski: (their inclusion truly makes the mannequin barely worse)

Pedro Decide: This Decide 22-24 run seems like a hitter’s model of Pedro doing THAT throughout the PED period. I do know that’s the purpose of utilizing WAR, although.

Dan Szymborski: He’s a Corridor of Famer now for me

Stu: I need to say I discovered it attention-grabbing to learn not too long ago that Anthony Rendon is a “veteran chief.”

Dan Szymborski: Nicely, not all leaders lead their groups to good locations!

Alby: Has intermittent fasting helped you take pleasure in each remaining sandwich extra?

Dan Szymborski: It does, although I’m cautious to not eat like a lunatic on consuming days

The one that asks the lunch query: What’s for lunch?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve some leftover linguine with white clam sauce in teh fridge

MF Luder: Why can’t Boston upset somebody within the ALDS?

Dan Szymborski: Possibly they’re not imply sufficient to individuals

I’m the apple: Had been Seunghwan Oh to have performed his entire profession within the MLB, what does ZiPS suppose his profession WAR can be? We solely acquired three seasons of “The Closing Boss,” however they have been fairly promising for an older reliever

Dan Szymborski: I can’t try this rapidly, however ZiPS was at all times a fan

99fletching: hello dan, what’s the cope with ronel blanco? particularly, he’s on monitor to have the bottom babip ever for a man over 100 ip (at the moment .199). does something about his profile point out that he’s genuinely elite at suppressing contact, or is that this simply an all time nice variance season, albeit a feel-good one ?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS thinks that he should be *barely* higher than common relative to Houston’s D, however nothing like a .199

Bobby Witt: I’m not saying the Orioles remorse selecting Rutschman, however how fortunate are the Royals that Witt fell to No. 2?

Dan Szymborski: They’re fairly lucky in fact!

Dan Szymborski: Witt is ridonkulous

Sam: It appears Craig Breslow has accomplished a reasonably horrible job of expertise analysis for the redsox. Not including within the offseason after which not promoting on the deadline if he wasn’t going to truly handle any of the workforce’s holes. How would you charge his tenure to date

Dan Szymborski: Nonetheless an incomplete. It’s onerous to judge GMs/presidents rapidly as a result of organizations as a complete, together with possession, make selections

Dan Szymborski: you don’t actually have the transaction satrap as a mannequin anymore prefer it was in a majority of locations

James: Ought to a Yainer Diaz extension be on the desk? Or are we unsure that he sticks at catcher lengthy sufficient?

Dan Szymborski: I’m on the fence there. The possibility that he strikes off catcher down the highway is important

Dan Szymborski: and there are 4 years till FA

Honkus Wagner: Do you see Santander getting a brand new cope with the O’s? if not, would a ballpark of 3yr/$60 mil be about proper?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS truly suggests 3/60 earlier than the season!

Dan Szymborski: So it could be extra now. Hold on

Dan Szymborski: properly, 3/59

Dan Szymborski: earlier than the season

Dan Szymborski: I’ll have to come back again round

Bob Loblaw: Juan Soto will end the highest _ hitter of all time

Dan Szymborski: staring

James: Astros have been taking part in .600 ball for 3+ months now. Its an extended shot, however the place do you set the percentages of passing one of many different division leaders and getting a bye?

Dan Szymborski: Pretty low as a result of they must beat *three* groups

Dan Szymborski: There are fewer situations wherein the AL East winner slumps

Dan Szymborski: as a result of if solely one of many Orioles/yankees slumps, the *different* workforce wins the AL East

Reframing Framing: Now that analytics have proved that pitch framing is indisputably extra worthwhile than stopping wild pitches and stolen bases, when will the #2 place be renamed, “Framer,” as a substitute of, “Catcher?”

Dan Szymborski: Nicely, framing continues to be a part of catching

Dan Szymborski: it’s simply particular location-based catching

Todd Bonzalez: How doubtless will Reds win each the Cy Younger and MVP, however miss the playoffs?

Dan Szymborski: Possibly one-in-50?

Mike: What are the possibilities each the Dodgers and the Braves miss the playoffs this yr? That appeared unfathomable again in April.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t have it in entrance of me, however actually lengthy

Dan Szymborski: The Dodgers COULD lose the division

Dan Szymborski: however they’re 8 1/2 video games forward of the third wild card workforce that *isn’t* the Braves (the Mets)

Dan Szymborski: and 11 video games forward of the following groups (Playing cards/Reds/Giants)

Sam: How would I’m going about transitioning the “Clutch” stat to a “Clutch+”? Is it so simple as multiplying the present equation by 100?

Dan Szymborski: not REALLY

Dan Szymborski: you’d want a Clutch charge

Dan Szymborski: then you definately coudl do it

James: Lets (very hypothetically) say that Reinsdorf hires a high finish GM, offers him a high 5 price range after which stays away from the entrance workplace. What’s the earliest the White Sox might make the playoffs once more?

Dan Szymborski: 2027?

Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: In accordance with the Fangraphs WAR Leaderboard, the White Sox have an mixture workforce WAR of 1.9, surpassing the overall of the 2003 Tigers at 1.7.  After all, that is nonetheless a piece in progress for Chicago as we will’t but account for the ultimate 1.5 months of a depleted roster dealing with off in opposition to a bunch of contenders (Mets, Orioles, Pink Sox, Guardians, Padres, and Giants, per Davy’s article).  Would you wager on the White Sox to complete with extra wins AND accrue extra whole WAR than the 2003 Tigers, would you?  Dropping means chugging a blended up can of skyline chili.

Dan Szymborski: Wait, what do I get if I win?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not consuming a chili smoothie on a detailed wager

Teddy: How do you venture defensive worth of prospects.

Dan Szymborski: erroneously for positive

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has a TZ-esque measure for minor league protection

Dan Szymborski: I’ve the precise hit location of all balls hit within the minors and a probability-based methodology like David Pinto used to have

Down by the River Ryan: You have got mentioned that greater change = extra sign. What do you make of Tyler Fitzgerald’s energy?

Dan Szymborski: The development ought to be fairly massive

Dan Szymborski: although his energy increase hasn’t fairly matched the unerlying knowledge

McGraw45: Merrill is on monitor for a 4+ struggle season and Zips has 3-year projections of ~1.4 struggle a yr. Is that due to a excessive BABIP/low stroll charge or simply the character of the beast?

Dan Szymborski: It’s as a result of these are the preseason projections

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS is clearly going to be fairly much more optimistic now

Dan Szymborski: Oh, ZiPS suggests 4/105 on Santander

.707 SLG: At what level does ZIPS mainly hand over and say, “I assume Decide is simply… this man now”

Dan Szymborski: Besides right here’s the factor – at his stage, the chance is *all* one facet

Dan Szymborski: so even in case you assume a .700 SLG is his baseline, that doesn’t imply he’s equally as more likely to develop into an .800 SLG man as a .600 SLG man

Phil: Kristian Campbell’s teammates are apparently calling him “Barry Bonds.” I assume I can dwell along with his being not fairly nearly as good as Bonds, however ought to he be increased on prospect lists than he after the stretch he’s had in AA?

Dan Szymborski: He’s actually going to maneuver up fairly a bit by ZiPS

Joseph: Dan, have seen a couple of mentions in articles these days about “X participant has elevated his bat velocity by X mph and his numbers have jumped”.

Joseph: Dan, have seen a couple of articles about “X participant has elevated his bat velocity by X mph and his numbers have jumped” these days.  Outdoors of the plain correlation that increased bat velocity results in increased exit velocities, have you ever seen any work by way of in-season bat velocity modifications and whether or not they correlate to something significant?  Are they statistically correlated to elevated outcomes?  How lengthy does it take by way of time length to develop into sticky?  What they regular baseline is for bat velocity fluctuations and the way a lot deviance one must see to matter?  Thanks!!

Dan Szymborski: It’s in all probability good, however I feel individuals soar the gun a bit of an excessive amount of

Dan Szymborski: now, bat velocity correlates extremely with different issues that we DO know are predictive of higher outcomes

Dan Szymborski: however even with that extremely doubtless speculation, individuals ought to be cautious direct claims with numbers

Jake A: Does ZIPS incorporate Statcast knowledge? If not, is it possible as an avenue of enchancment sooner or later?

Dan Szymborski: Yup – I neglect off-hand that entered the primary mannequin, I feel 2019?

Yeah Nicely Hiura Towel: If Ohtani hit ninth within the order as a substitute of first, how a lot WAR would he lose?

Dan Szymborski: About 20% of offensive WAR, assuming no different modifications

Rob Manfred: ESPN ran a narrative this morning about introducing a 6-inning minimal for beginning pitchers. What’s your most popular treatment (if any) to revive the prominence of the beginning pitcher?

Dan Szymborski: It’s a difficult factor to govern, since you don’t need a situation wherein you find yourself with extra accidents

Dan Szymborski: Although MLB has the correct thought, in that altering guidelines is likely one of the finest elementary methods to vary kinds of the sport

Dan Szymborski: Pizza Cutter wrote about it yesterday

Dan Szymborski: and it’s a topic I discuss

Dan Szymborski: (nto the innings change particularly)

Visitor: 1.3 WAR in 437 PA coming into the season and he’s at 1.4 WAR in 393

somebody’s gotta be in that fifty fifth percentile! (do they?)

Dan Szymborski: properly, 1% of gamers would hopefully be exactly there!

David Forst: What occurred to Ryan Noda?

Dan Szymborski: He was a stopgappish sort 1B who had a pleasant little BABIP-aided run final yr and acquired off to a horrible begin this yr

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS solely had him at 210/331/381 coming into the season and the opposite projectiosn weren’t that totally different

John: Does ZiPS account for minor league struggles of a participant like Bobby Miller, or does it rely solely on previous MLB efficiency?

Dan Szymborski: it takes minors under consideration

Dan Szymborski: besides rehab

Pat: Are we at an all-time low in veteran all time hitting greats..at the least so far as conventional stats are involved? Freddie Freeman is the energetic chief in hits, runs, RBI..but ranks beneath one hundred and fortieth all time in every. Can’t resolve if that is regular or a bizarre one off.

Dan Szymborski: We’re undoubtedly pretty low in veteran hitters proper now

Dan Szymborski: There are solely 4 hitters 35 or older with one WAR this season: Santana, d’Arnaud, Rojas, J.D. Martinez

Dan Szymborski: so you probably have fewer veteran guys, you’re going to haven’t as mny with lofty totals

john: Characteristic request, be happy to toss it within the trash.  Fangraphs does their commerce worth sequence they usually rank farm methods, however I might love to simply see each group ranked by surplus worth, main leaguers and minor leaguers collectively.  Baseball commerce values kinda had one thing like this however they went behind a paywall, and I would like if ZiPS have been used.

Dan Szymborski: I would like to determine an automatic solution to do it

mile low: Zips had Wyatt Langford .346 wOBA for yr.  Trying like precise will likely be decrease.  Would you continue to wager future all-star?

Dan Szymborski: AN all-star look? Positive, although the upside has come down a bit

Visitor: Is Juan Soto extra more likely to age worse than common since he has “previous particular person” abilities and his bat velocity is beneath common?

Dan Szymborski: It’s fairly attainable, however keep in mind, these are percentages – younger participant abilities don’t essentially imply growing old properly and vice versa

Visitor: if the Orioles had a greenback for each high prospect callup who struck out 50% of the time in a brief first stint, they’d have at the least two {dollars}, which isn’t so much, nevertheless it’s bizarre that it occurred twice in a single yr. (it could be reasonably much less bizarre from the Rockies)

Visitor: somebody who needs to “name out” projection methods for being too low on Decide ought to goal at Steamer as a substitute of ZiPS, however I assume these guys don’t maintain weekly chats

Dan Szymborski: I don’t actually “do” projection wars

Dan Szymborski: I current my product, give as a lot data away as I can justify, and as a lot element of the mannequin as I can, and let outcomes communicate for themselves

Visitor: btw did the thought to replace these 1x/yr get wherever?

Dan Szymborski: I’m considering of doing ASB subsequent yr

Dan Szymborski: or possibly July 1st

Phil: Fascinating about rehab. Do you simply ignore these stints? I at all times surprise what will be discovered from them, significantly proper now whem Boston media is reporting breathlessly on Casas’s at-bats.

Dan Szymborski: I simply discover they create noise

wheelhouse: wait, who informed that person who juan soto has below-average bat velocity

Dan Szymborski: i assumed that bat was a stray phrase added

dontcare: I’m going to be very unhappy when two of the three NL West groups must face off within the WC spherical

Ken Jennings Says: The Ides of August is the thirteenth. You’re two days late.

Dan Szymborski: OK, on that word, it’s time fo rme to go out for one more week

laughingstock: Are there any gamers/prospects with extraordinarily bimodal future worth projections? One thing approaching “99% of the time they’ll be a utility man, however there’s a 1% probability they could truly be the following Willie Mays”

Dan Szymborski: no one as huge because the final two guys to be REALLY bimodal: Tanner Scott and Michael Kopech