Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 8/1/24

Dan Szymborski: And awaaaay we go!

Ryan: Do you suppose the Padres have a shot of working down the Dodgers? The offense is buzzing and that bullpen seems insanely filthy.

Dan Szymborski: A shot? Sure. But it surely’s an uphill battle. Dodgers are a wonderful staff. The Padres must not simply be actually good, they should have the Dodgers hit a few of their swingy harm danger of their high-end expertise

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has Dodgers at like 77% this morning, and I believe I’d take the over on what the true mystical chance is that we are able to’t really inform

Sam: ZiPS appears to essentially like Danny Jansen to the Sox.  Is it as a result of his swing is nicely suited to Fenway?  Equally within the preseason ZiPS projections for 2024, Jansen’s full yr projection is with the Crimson Sox now – is that this projecting him enjoying half his video games at Fenway?

Dan Szymborski: No, the location doesn’t reformulate the outdated projections

Kenshin Kawakami: Soler moved the ZIPS postseason needle greater than I anticipated for the Braves. I do know that’s largely as a result of sub substitute degree nook outfielders they’ve been working out, however is it unsuitable to be skeptical of Soler when he has to get again to enjoying outfield?

Dan Szymborski: You’re not unsuitable to be skeptical. However I *did* undertaking Soler as a nook outfielder, which takes successful

Dan Szymborski: There’s danger, however Atlanta’s outfield is TERRIBLE this yr

Dan Szymborski: 0.7 mixed WAR. And that’s with Acuña’s quite disappointing-for-him 1.1 WAR

Harry: There’s been a number of dialogue this yr in regards to the DH and 1B penalties, and it appears prone to be reevaluated at some sort of Fangraphs summit this offseason. Do you will have an opinion on the positional changes as they at the moment stand/do

Dan Szymborski: I’ve been one pushing for an adjustment for a pair years. However we’re speaking a number of runs right here and there. It’ll solely be an actual distinction over lengthy careers

Dan Szymborski: DH is one I’ve been pushing for since earlier than I even labored for FG!

Dan Szymborski: Like mgl, each approach I take a look at DH vs. 1B, there’s a small penalty from sitting in your ass that each DH has to face

Dan Szymborski: it’s like a extremely delicate model of the PH penalty

Dallas: I’m undecided if it’s honest to say the Pirates have soured on Henry Davis, nonetheless between Endy Rodriguez returning and Joey Bart’s emergence wouldn’t it be honest to say they might commerce him this offseason in a baseball commerce?

Dan Szymborski: It *coudl* occur for positive, however there’s not a number of commerce worth there. I believe the Pirates are nonetheless determining how the whole lot types out

Dan Szymborski: and I doubt the staff is totally bought on Joey Bart turning his profession 180 after…fewer than 180 PA

Crone Zone: If you happen to had Michael King in fantasy, would you maintain as a result of he’s been superior or try to promote for a comparable asset as a result of he’s been superior and the variety of innings he’ll throw this yr scares you?

Dan Szymborski: It ALWAYS is determined by the commerce

Dan Szymborski: Each participant has a worth you’d trad ethem at

John: So far as Crimson Sox prospects go, I believe Kristian Campbell has tackle the title of most polarizing now that Rafaela has graduated.  What does ZiPS consider this yr within the minors this yr?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS likes it very a lot! He’ll have a reasonably beefy projection subsequent yr for positive

Harry: On their respective contracts, would you quite have Michael Harris II or Corbin Carroll?

Dan Szymborski: I believe Carroll, but it surely’s actually up for debate

Dan Szymborski: Carroll’s possible upside is arguably balanced by the additional 35 million or no matter

M’s Fan: Would the commerce deadline have been extra thrilling with out the third wildcard?

Dan Szymborski: In all probability not

Dan Szymborski: Anybody combating for a 3rd wildcard is probably going additionally combating for a second wildcard

JamesStirling: Hello Dan, Will Feddie and Pham thrive in St Louis or simply be common?

Dan Szymborski: I believe they’ll be tremendous, however unexciting

Datt Mamon: What are the chances that Eloy stays wholesome and figures it out with the Orioles?

Dan Szymborski: Fairly low, I believe

Dan Szymborski: Suppose the O’s are simply taking a scratch-and-win

Kip: Have you ever performed Eldin Ring?

Dan Szymborski: I really haven’t gotten round to Elden Ring

Dan Szymborski: one of many issues is there are such a lot of issues to play and I’m a 46-year-old man with a full-time job so I can’t play everythign I need

Ralph: As soon as he’s been capable of reacclimate off the harm, ought to Dominguez be taking these Verdugo at bats?

Dan Szymborski: Ideally, I’d

Dan Szymborski: Verdugo’s mainly a stopgap starter. Whenever you don’t have the hole to cease, he must be farther again within the fridge

Kip: Cleveland offers up actual prospects for Lane Thomas and Atlanta offers up a non prospects and takes on some cash for higher manufacturing. /Jesse Pinkman he can’t maintain getting away with it gif for Alex Anthopoulos/

TooDamnTall: The place have you ever been!?! (After I miss chats, I nonetheless blame you)

Dan Szymborski: I used to be away, then I had a nasty head/chest chilly, and a conflicting physician’s appointment

Edward: Ben Rice NYY 1B of the longer term?

Dan Szymborski: Wouldn’t go THAT far

Champdo: Of the non Riley Greene Tiger place gamers who do you suppose would be the most efficient subsequent season? Keith? Perez, Meadows? Possibly Jung?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has it shut between Keith/Jung, although I’ll depart it within the air whether or not it’s as a result of ZiPS actually likes Keith/Jung or it’s actually sad about Tigers after Riley Greene

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has Greene greater than two WAR forward of subsequent Tiger

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: Hey Dan, what does ZiPS undertaking for changing Jordan Westburg with Ramon Urias? What in the event that they name up Coby Mayo on the finish of August?

Dan Szymborski: Can’t do a full season sim rapidly! It’s a loss although, and it in all probability shaves a pair factors off division possibilities and playoff prob

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS likes Mayo

Dan Szymborski: I’m undecided the O’s would really do it, however I’d say “fuck it” and simply stick in Mayo because the starter

Dan Szymborski: The playoffs are nearly assured. Roll the cube on teh division as a result of Urias is meh as a starter

Johnny: How a lot of successful is being a Met on J Winker’s PT?

Do you suppose Kopech will get any saves in LA?

Do you suppose G Holmes is a worthwhile NL 5×5 add?

Dan Szymborski: Some, in all probability not, is determined by the dimensions of the league because you’ll solely get ERA/WHIP from him and never many innings

Dan Szymborski: I imply, strikeouts too, however not large counting

James: Ought to the Astros have any form of innings restrict for Blanco, or simply understand that is in all probability the very best season he’ll have and milk it?

Dan Szymborski: Given his age and the closeness fo the race, I think about the Astros will use him extra like a veteran

Honkus Wagner: favourite tune off Nevermind?

Dan Szymborski: Come As You Are

Drew: What’s one thing sometimes undervalued by most entrance places of work that the nice entrance places of work worth accurately? Primarily based on current drafts by the Dodgers (my private gold normal) pace is turning into extra emphasised.

Dan Szymborski: Truthfully? Danger

Dan Szymborski: I believe the very best groups are those which have the very best understanding of danger, each good and badf

Dan Szymborski: Have a look at the Dodgers and the way they accumulate dangerous, attention-grabbing pitching. They’re comfy simply having a bunch of dudes who could also be wholesome, however who might have actually high-end efficiency, and keen to simply accept there may be a time that they roll poorly and there are too many accidents, they usually’ll should cope with it

Bob: Any ideas / projections on Joey Wiemer after commerce to the Reds ? Outfield in dire want of upside. Thanks.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t suppose he’s the droid you’re on the lookout for

Insert Witty Title Right here: Has anybody reviewed Dombrowski’s document of prospects he traded away?

Dan Szymborski: Possibly? It’s not 1997, so I’m not aware of the whole lot analytical that’s been written

Insert Witty Title Right here: What’s it like being a childless cat dude?

Dan Szymborski: Full nights of sleep and I maintain my revenue, however the next danger of stepping in chilly vomit at 3 AM

Chris Davis: What precisely was behind Chris Davis’s fast decline?

Dan Szymborski: Terrible, terrible contact hitter and pitchers finally discovered the way to get round him swinging out of his sneakers

Dan Szymborski: And attempting to treatment it, he didn’t have ok palte self-discipline, and he received REALLY terrible at selecting to swing on the good pitches to hit

Alex Cobb Appreciator: How do I persuade fellow Guardians followers that remainder of season projections which have this staff at .500 are cheap based mostly on a trash rotation and mid offense, and never the results of a anti-Cleveland cabal placing out biased projections?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS really stil likes the Guardians!

Dan Szymborski: But when that doesn’t persuade them, you in all probability can’t

Dan Szymborski: You’ll by no means persuade a cussed fan of something with a pc projection

Refugee: Jud Fabian a ZiPS high 100 prospect??

Dan Szymborski: Definitely not now

Orange stripey cat: Is Tampa going to make Dylan Carlson into the All Star that John Mozeliak was publicly fantasizing about 3 years in the past?

Dan Szymborski: They might? However in all probability not

Flangraphs: In search of a superb flan recipe

Dan Szymborski: I don’t actually do desserts

Hon: Dan! What the heck are the Orioles doing? Eflin is a welcome addition, however their strikes within the outfield are head scratching, and with Westburg on the shelf the Holliday promotion doesn’t really feel as horny as I hoped it might…

Dan Szymborski: Eflin was, once more, a giant eflin deal

SudsTerkel: This White Sox factor…there’s zero motive for hope so long as Jerry Reinsdorf owns the staff, proper?

Dan Szymborski: In all probability no hope

Visitor: is there a option to estimate a participant’s twentieth/eightieth pctl ZiPS based mostly on their fiftieth?

Dan Szymborski: I imply, the typical of the 2 gained’t be FAR off, however when do you will have twentieth/eightieth and never the projection?

Thanks for the chat!: It appears a number of groups are touchdown on comparable staff constructing methods. The place would you search for a counter technique to doubtlessly stand out?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not really positive you are able to do a counter technique

Dan Szymborski: The issue is an excessive amount of what wins baseball video games is “solved” particularly offense

Dan Szymborski: What it’s important to do is reap the benefits of your particular scenario as greatest you possibly can

Dan Szymborski: just like the Sox can’t make an elite offense another way than most elite offenses

Dan Szymborski: However they’ll take dangers that the nice groups can’t

Oaktown Blues: Is ZiPS shopping for the Lawrence Butler breakout? Are you?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS just isn’t. I’m nonetheless on the fence

The Oriole Fowl: Per your article this morning–which was nice, BTW–the O’s have the best probability of profitable the WS at the moment.  Did I learn that proper??

Dan Szymborski: Sure, ZiPS already just like the Orioles quite a bit

Dan Szymborski: regardless of what Reddit thinks

Dan Szymborski: All of the playoff matchups received higher rotation-wise

Dan Szymborski: and this provides them a lift in division title probability, which is a HUGE deal

Visitor: the Cubs have gotten smarter, Matt Shaw will get to “work on his protection” in AA as an alternative of AAA to keep away from service time accusations

Dan Szymborski: heh

MNLakes: In a case just like the Twins lack of trades do you place extra weight (blame) on possession slashing payroll or the entrance workplace not pulling the set off on making any influence trades?

Dan Szymborski: A variety of instances its an possession concern

Dan Szymborski: The Rockies could be so much higher with totally different possession or a change in possession involvement

Colton: Who do you suppose goes to be the largest mover in ZiPS projections this offseason? Jarren Duran?

Dan Szymborski: Durran is up there

Dan Szymborski: I did two articles on it!

mile low: for those who have been drive rating GMs is Billy Schmidt 31?

Dan Szymborski: It’s arduous to price GMs aside from the remainder of the group

Dan Szymborski: I’m fairly assured that Rockies possession had their hand in a number of disasters for the staff, such because the Desmond/Bryant signings and the quiet commerce deadlines

Dan Szymborski: close to 100% on Bryant

romorr: Did you see the Holliday grand slam reside, Dan? I do know you’re an Orioles fan, simply curious for those who received to get pleasure from it. With the struggles, that needed to really feel nice for him.

Dan Szymborski: Sadly, I missed it reside

Dan Szymborski: I imply, I had it on, however I used to be engrossed in my ZiPS wrapup article

Dan Szymborski: and I had the sound on one thing else

Dan Szymborski: Relying on the timing, I both had a recording of Bruckner’s seventh or Yanks-Phils

Steven: Does Witt must greatest Choose in Conflict by a good quantity to win MVP?

Dan Szymborski: I believe it relies upon simply the place Choose’s numbers find yourself

Dan Szymborski: If he hits 60 once more, hes’ going to be actually arduous to beat

Dan Szymborski: even with fashionable baseball writers usually being higher at this

Dan Szymborski: Even in WAR it’s fairly shut and Choose has an edge on elements of WAR which can be extra SOLID. We all know offense fairly nicely. However issues like positional adjustment and even defensive efficiency are a bit extra summary.

Dan Szymborski: And I believe it a detailed race, the tie goes to the stable

mile low: m toglia anticipated oba .348.  if zips extra bullish on him as of late?

Dan Szymborski: Mildly

James: Does 85 wins take the AL West? Nobody appears to need it.

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has the typical results of the eventual AL West winner as 86.7 wins

Yeah Effectively Hiura Towel: Crochet killed his personal commerce market proper? No staff’s gonna commerce for him with out figuring out what sort of extension it might take to get him to pitch within the postseason.

Dan Szymborski: It added a complete bunch of danger for a pitcher who already had some danger

The Oriole Fowl: Westburg harm hurts.  You suppose Mayo is getting referred to as up very quickly?

Dan Szymborski: .I’ve no particular information on this

Wealthy: January 1, 2030. The place will the A’s be headquartered?

Dan Szymborski: In all probability Vegas. Ultimately, cities normally cave and provides groups no matter they need, eventually

Dan Szymborski: Thought it might be humorous in the event that they’re nonetheless enjoying in Sacramento

Dan Szymborski: I imply, not for A’s followers

Dan Szymborski: however Fisher could be sad, and that makes me glad

Wealthy: What are Vaughn/Torkelson price going ahead. Does the Rooker Reclamation current a path ahead in salvaging their careers?

Dan Szymborski: Not a lot.

Dan Szymborski: And positive, there’s at all times a second or third probability, however even Rooker’s worth dropped to simply about nothing at one piont

John B: What do you make of Jordan Walker (seemingly 2023 rookie of the yr !) not with the ability to put it collectively in AAA in 2024?  Is that this frequent ?  Or doesn’t appear frequent

Dan Szymborski: It’s uncommon, however not THAT unusual

Key Flaw: As an O’s fan, I’ve at all times felt the dagger of the Glen Davis commerce. Yeah, it was unhealthy again then (particularly since Randy Milligan was the superior participant anyway), however who would have identified that the gamers they traded away could be THAT good (heck, a straight up Harnish-Davis commerce would have been a fleecing of the O’s, not to mention Finley and Schilling). What does ZiPS consider the commerce on the time?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t run it, however I’m actually it might be fairly awful

Dan Szymborski: I’ve appeared on the gamers earlier than and whereas ZiPS was lukewarm on Finley, it preferred Harnisch and Schilling fairly a bit

Cito Gaston’s mustache: I identified it’s small pattern measurement, however are you nervous in any respect that father time has lastly caught as much as Kershaw?

Dan Szymborski: Hasn’t it kinda already?

Dan Szymborski: Till you get close to 40, pitchers break mor ethan they age

Dan Szymborski: and he’s kinda damaged so much

matt w: About Henry Davis (and possibly extra usually relevant): ought to I be saying “He can’t presumably be as unhealthy as he’s appeared within the majors if he’s hitting this nicely in AAA” or ought to I be nervous that the rising hole between AAA and the majors means there might be extra guys who mash in AAA and by no means determine it out within the majors? Or one thing else?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve been tinkering with the information for Ben L. on the topic and I’m not really discovering an rising hole. A few of it (although not on this case) seems to be folks nonetheless haven’t absorbed how totally different the offensive environments are between AAA and MLB proper now

Chris Getz: If Miguel Vargas turns right into a 2 win participant, does that imply the Fedde commerce was stable?

Dan Szymborski: Possibly? On a win foundation, in all probability, however the White Sox must be chasing ceilings, not reliable two-win guys

Re: Childless Cat Dude: Effectively as a catless baby dude I can say you in all probability have much less probability of being hit with heat vomit at 3 AM

CONCERNED PARENT: Dan I can’t keep in mind for those who have been somebody that ever tweeted about Magic The Gathering or not, in that case have you ever been enjoying Bloomburrow? Greatest set in years.

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t actually performed Magic because the 90s

DJ Tofu: How typically do 3 yr projections of ZiPS get refreshed?

Dan Szymborski: Those on FG, simply firstly of the season. I’ve been contemplating rerolling them on the ASB subsequent yr

Visitor: the 20/80 based mostly on 50, not 50 based mostly on 20/80, Dan ; )

Dan Szymborski: Oh geez

Dan Szymborski: yeah, I don’t suppose you may get 20/80 from 50

Dan Szymborski: I should have learn the query unsuitable

Insert Witty Title Right here: Do you suppose the MLBPA ought to push within the subsequent CBA not a cap ground or ceiling, however a minimal normal of participant services? Studying tales about how the A’s and Pirates and so on skimp on stuff like coaching rooms and vitamin and all that, maybe that may be a superb win to get.

Dan Szymborski: It might be good, however they have a tendency to concentrate on probably the most bang for the buck when it comes to time

Dan Szymborski: I actually don’t suppose the MLBPA is in a terrific bargaining place

Dan Szymborski: One of many issues that has at all times helped the MLBPA traditionally is homeowners being useless and undisciplined

Dan Szymborski: However the homeowners have a built-in benefit: lots of them can wait it out a *lot* longer than a 23-year-old prospect

Dmx: No pitch clock within the ninth inning- what say you?

Dan Szymborski: Nah

Dan Szymborski: I don’t like guidelines that change

Vegeta: Heard Thunder Kiss ‘65 for the primary time this week modified my world. Any unheard tune equally change your world?

Dan Szymborski: Truthfully, not that I can consider

Visitor: How typically do you watch video games?

Dan Szymborski: Any time there’s a recreation on, there’s a recreation on

Wi-fi Joe Jackson: Any probability we are able to get an replace on the chances of the White Sox breaking the loss document?

Dan Szymborski: I really posted it final evening on Twitter!

Dan Szymborski: or this morning

Dan Szymborski: hmm

Dan Szymborski: cling on

AL Melee: What’s extra shocking? The AL Central being extra aggressive than anticipated or the AL West being worse than anticipated?

Dan Szymborski: AL West in all probability

Junkballer: If you happen to have been to reply actually, can we really feel like all projection methods actually may give an correct view on what to anticipate out of Aaron Choose over the following 5 years? It simply appears like there are so few 6’7, 295 pound people on the market, a lot much less elite baseball gamers who put up profession years at 32 when most others are declining. You could possibly inform me he might flip into an injured pumpkin subsequent yr or might be doing this 5 years from now and each appear seemingly.

Dan Szymborski: I’m undecided Choose is *significantly* troublesome to undertaking exterior of well being

Dan Szymborski: we’ll see in 2029! lol

Junkballer: It might be enjoyable to run an evaluation on historic ZIPs verdicts on a few of the most perceived (on the time) lopsided trades and see which of them netted out lopsided in the long term

Dan Szymborski: I do particular person trades occasionally. I believe I did one thing on ESPN some years in the past that was a ridiculous quantity of hours for a single piece

Dan Szymborski: I did do the worst trades of teh free company period in 2012, but it surely wasn’t a ZiPS factor

zips fiend: Is the NPB nonetheless considerably higher than the KBO, and are each higher than AAA/AA?

Dan Szymborski: I nonetheless get NPB as AAA1/2 and KBO as AA1/2

Natitude Adjuster: Have you ever ever messed round with together with faculty stats into ZiPS?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, however there’s such large variance that I solely embrace faculty stats once I MUST undertaking a participant and I’ve nothing else to go on

Dan Szymborski: Principally, ZiPS will use faculty translations, the place obtainable, any time there may be little to no skilled expertise

Dan Szymborski: however I gained’t quote it until I HAVE to

Dan Szymborski: Like I couldn’t get away with not projecting Crews

Dan Szymborski: as an official projection

Alex: If Zips grew to become sentient, wouldn’t it look fondly on you for creating it or wouldn’t it flip towards you for making it work so arduous?

Dan Szymborski: Most of my family members additionally harbor an inclination of being continuously irritated by me, so I believe it woudl have blended emotions too

Dan Szymborski: On that notice, it’s time fo rme to go out for an additional week

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming all!