Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 5/23/24

Dan Szymborski: Greetings!

Dan Szymborski: I’m unhappy to report that the chili I used to be making final week after we chatted didn’t end up properly.

Dan Szymborski: I acquired careless with the salt and the entire thing was manner too salty.

Dan Szymborski: So I needed to eat it with VERY improper cheese and bitter cream added in to mute the saltiness.

Joe: Can Gil be a entrance line man? Or Schmidt? Each have seemed nice

Dan Szymborski: Each are definitely making their circumstances. Pitching improvement is bizarre, so when a guys’ understanding loads of the time it’s simply him understanding

Dan Szymborski: Ther’es nothing notably head-scratching within the peripherals or statcast knowledge

Randy: What do you concentrate on Volpe? Might be higher beneath the hood however looks as if xwOBA underrates him given his spray angles

Dan Szymborski: the zstats do use spray info and like him higher

You’re Identify: With the Martian on his manner again, why is it that ZiPS appears so down of him? ZiPS has him for a 98 wRC+ regardless of his excessive prospect pedigree and stellar efficiency (even when it was solely 8 video games) final 12 months.

Dan Szymborski: I imply “even when it was solely 8 video games” is a reasonably large if. It’s a bit like saying Abraham Lincoln solely REALLY had a pair dangerous minutes in the course of the play

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS and Steamer are very shut on this. I do know ZiPS loves his long run potential

Dan Szymborski: however he was solely OK in AA final 12 months

Dan Szymborski: Now, the younger half is why the long-term upside is big

Visitor: do you imagine in pork chili? bison? rooster?

Dan Szymborski: So long as its nonetheless primarily meat-and-chili peppers positive

Dan Szymborski: Weirdly, there’s no chili alignment chart

Travis: Do you suppose baseball analytics has gone a bit too far, and sucked a number of the enjoyable out of the sport? I liked sabermetrics however now am nervous the elevated strikeouts and pitch designs are creating an unbalanced recreation that’s much less enjoyable to look at. How can we mannequin enjoyable issue?

Dan Szymborski: I believe aesthetics are within the eyes of the behodler

Dan Szymborski: the extra attention-grabbing query is: let’s assume for the sake of argument that it’s true, now what?

Dan Szymborski: I posed this on Twitter the opposite day

Dan Szymborski: and as anticipated, the “answer” for most individuals was to not use analytics

Dan Szymborski: Which is an absolute cretinous reponse

Dan Szymborski: response

Dan Szymborski: If a portion of a recreation is “solved” in a way that the profitable technique is thought and excludes alternate methods, and that technique isn’t enjoyable, then the answer is to alter the principles

Dan Szymborski: As a result of for many individuals, the answer is to only count on groups to un-know some basic items, which isn’t going to occur

Visitor: Would you convey one non-baseball societal opinion that (a) you’re feeling strongly and (b) maybe we don’t know?

Dan Szymborski: OH god, are you making an attempt to get me into bother?

Dan Szymborski: OK, on opinions I haven’t expressed earlier than, let me suppose

Dan Szymborski: The issue is I’m opinionated and an enormous mouth

Dan Szymborski: hmm…MAYBE my perception that no election ballots ought to checklist a political get together as I contemplate that promoting, and names must be in randomized order on every poll

Trevor Larnach: Am I actual? Ok charge down 12% and presently eighth in MLB in common exit velo..

Dan Szymborski: The facility most likely. Ok must be improved, however not this a lot as nonetheless under common contact

Edamame: How is harm knowledge integrated into statistical evaluation (each ZIPS and groups’)? Is it only a categorical flag for every (torn UCL, and so on.) or is it one thing extra fine-grained?

Dan Szymborski: The previous

Dan Szymborski: The information doesn’t actually exist to do it fine-grained

Visitor: does realizing the inherent flaws / gaps in ZiPS offer you an edge on baseball betting? Like at this level, the sports activities books’ odds are most likely derived equally to ZiPS, so do you ever see “Oh, right here’s why they put the over right here, that’s a flaw within the system that overvalues X” so then you definitely wager the beneath?

Dan Szymborski: No, I don’t attempt to eleventy-dimension chess it

Dan Szymborski: If I see a great EV+ I take it, and if I don’t, I don’t care

Dan Szymborski: errr +EV

Who’s Fabio?: Did you see that the state of Indiana declared that tacos are the truth is a sandwich.  Really.  It was a authorized determination to settle a mini mall lease dispute over what constitutes a sandwich.

Dan Szymborski: Solely a sandwich within the statuatory sense

SanD: What goes into projecting a gamers BABIP? Is it simply pace and exit velo?

Dan Szymborski: line drive charge, spray; reverse area hit charge really is a greater predictor than pace!

Who’s Fabio?: Hey Dan.  How is your again treating you?

Dan Szymborski: Significantly better since disposing of a number of the further weight

Jurf: Are all of us going to overlook about Brennen Davis in just a few weeks, or is he a superb prospect once more? If it’s too early to inform, what number of extra weeks/months of fine play would it not take to present a greater reply?

Dan Szymborski: I’m sorry to say I’m skeptical

Dan Szymborski: Can’t actually give X weeks as a result of that relies upon how good he continues hitting

Dan Szymborski: If he continues a 170wRC+, it’s quite a bit shorter time than if he continues hitting, say 130 wRC+

E: What’s the distinction between Full Fats ZiPS and ROS ZiPS?

Dan Szymborski: Use of Statcast and plate self-discipline knowledge is an enormous one

Dan Szymborski: and built-in minor league translations

Dan Szymborski: See, right here’s the issue:

Dan Szymborski: To do a full ZiPS run takes a couple of day every for the PC that it runs on, so it may’t be up to date each day

Dan Szymborski: And even on my primary PC, it takes about 16-18 hours, throughout which I can’t actually do a lot with my primary PC

E: bonus query: in case you run Full Fats ZiPS, how a lot of 3YR ZiPS turns into ~untrustworthy (ie what % of the ZiPS participant pool do you suppose goes by means of important modifications)?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t suppose I may give a tough and quick rule for a generality

JT: It’s OK, Kevin. We all know your chili usually works out.

Dan Szymborski: Hey, I’ve extra hair than him!

Visitor: Everytime you run projections utilizing previous knowledge, how do you deal with 2020? Do you utilize the numbers as they’re or possibly a projection mannequin of what they might have been over a full season? Was simply curious!

Dan Szymborski: Poorly?

Dan Szymborski: I suppose that’s not a great reply

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS considers 2020 as a mixture of precise 2020, and the ROS projection calculated in the mean time the season ended

Dan Szymborski: and fortunately, it’s a extremely small a part of projections now

Hokius: Does ZiPS suppose the Royals can preserve this up in any respect?

Dan Szymborski: By way of a >.600 WP? No

Dan Szymborski: however even on the .485ish profitable share anticipated the remainder of the way in which, that also makes them a playoff workforce like 60% of the time

Dan Szymborski: BTW Hokius, flipping in MLB the Present is getting nearer to regular ranges of profitability, particularly off peak

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: I’d additionally like an replace on how Chilly Metal III goes for you, although you don’t essentially have to present it right here

20longyears: Talking of Oneil Cruz, what are your ideas on his efficiency to date and certain improvement?

Dan Szymborski: He hit ball actually ahrd

Dan Szymborski: Hit ball laborious good

not the man who asks what’s for lunch: what’s for dinner?

Dan Szymborski: Nothing, it’s a quick day

Grand Admiral Braun: Are you able to run an alternate Zips the place Chris Sale by no means acquired harm?

Dan Szymborski: I can!

Dan Szymborski: And I could at some piont

Nameless Coward: What does it say concerning the Braves that their DH has almost double every other hitter’s fWAR?

Dan Szymborski: Nothing good

Andrew Friedman: I must be all in going after Mason Miller, proper?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah

Joe: Any purpose for some concern concerning the Orioles? 9-8 in Might, the offense is absolutely struggling, and now accidents are beginning to crop up.

Dan Szymborski: Not likely. Each workforce goes to have some runs

Chris: Why did Mike baumann price a lot? And can the mariners have the reply to make him nice?

Dan Szymborski: He writes nice headlines

Easter bunny: I’ve simply by accident found that Mike Baumann’s participant web page is sponsored by FanGraphs with enjoyable info!  Are there different such gamers?  Will you inform me who they’re?

Dan Szymborski: I used to be unaware this was a factor

Idiotic Failson: Re: Analytics – it looks as if hitting analytics has lagged pitching analytics. Possibly the hitting aspect goes to get higher and do a greater job of countering the pitching.

Dan Szymborski: It’s attainable, however pitching has a bonus in that it’s not reactive

Cursed laser present: Does ZIPs have a look at Roman Anthony first few years and see Andrew Benintendi as attainable consequence? Or extra like Abreu (Phillies)?

Dan Szymborski: I suppose you desire a comp? dangle on

Dan Szymborski: I’ll get again to this

Visitor: Do you and or ZiiPS suppose Vientos is a greater hitter than Baty (now and long-term); if that’s the case, do no matter numbers you belief recommend that his protection at 3B is just too horrible to make up for his offense? What are the percentages that he might make a Wilmer Flores-esque transition to 2B if 3B is an excessive amount of?

Dan Szymborski: I’m really a bit nervous that they’re coming down with Kevin Witt Illness

Dan Szymborski: Not ok to hit at 1B, not ok to area 3B

Shotamania: Main query, however what impression do you suppose his NPB posting signing deadline had on the entire “Shota is underpaid” factor? Brought on by the signing deadline full cease, attributable to having a signing deadline whereas different lefty SPs didn’t, only a scouting miss from the market?

Dan Szymborski: In all probability not an enormous one

Dan Szymborski: However to date, it’s not trying good

Dan Szymborski: as within the scouting miss

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS frigging LOVED him

Dan Szymborski: and I’m a bit irritated that just a few groups purchased some actually detailed projections for him after which confirmed no curiosity

Dan Szymborski: As I expressed then, my feeling was that GMs that led the Cubs get him for that little actually screwed up

Dan Szymborski: and I known as it — I believe, I hope I’m not remembering fallacious — the most effective signing of the offseason

Dan Szymborski: And naturally, 2024 hasn’t accomplished something to make me really feel worse about it

Ron Pretty: I’d actually wish to have an Authentic Tommy’s double chili cheeseburger TBH

Dan Szymborski: I’ve by no means been there as I’ve spent little or no time in CA

Dan Szymborski: shoudl’ve considered it after I was in Vegas for winter conferences

Joe: Is a lasagna a casserole?

Dan Szymborski: Sure

Phil: Pink Sox broadcasters are beginning to discuss up Wilyer Abreu for ROY. Ideas? I do suppose he’s higher than the prospect analysts thought, notably defensively, however nonetheless principally a platoon man, absolutely?

Dan Szymborski: I imply, it’s not the craziest factor on condition that he’s like 2nd or third in rookie WAR at the very least test

Dan Szymborski: and projectiosn already principally had him as a league-average participant earlier than the season

Dan Szymborski: like ZiPS was at 1.7 WAR in 474 projected PA

Dan Szymborski: and his time not towards lefties is principally already “stuffed in” with substitute degree efficiency

cm: The Orioles have one of many lowest stroll charges in baseball.  What are your ideas on that as as to whether it’s a technique or an issue with the younger hitters.  Adley specifically is strolling manner much less.

Dan Szymborski: They’ve accomplished a lot injury after they hit issues that they’re incentivized to be aggressive

Dan Szymborski: The aim of plate self-discipline isn’t simply to get walks, it’s to get your pitch to drive

Dan Szymborski: guys that don’t do this go down the Ben Grieve/Jeremy Hermida route

Visitor: If I had been to pick 50 ZiPS projections (or facets of a projection) earlier than the 12 months for five years and offer you my over/beneath tackle them, what share would I’ve to be proper on over that stretch to make you suppose that I do know one thing that ZiPS doesn’t?

Dan Szymborski: You guys like giving me questions that don’t have simple solutions! lol. it could depend upon the magnitude and what traits correlate the errors

Dan Szymborski: and your argument

chili alignment chart: the place would an unopened can of kidney beans match on this chart?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t wish to say, as a result of I’ll naturally put beans in evil and tomatoes in chaotic

Dan Szymborski: LAWFUL GOOD

Dan Szymborski:

Dan’l: What does Zips see from the primary two months of the season as a constructive future improvement for the Playing cards? (slander apart…)

Dan Szymborski: I imply, ZiPS doesn’t suppose they’re *terrible*

Dan Szymborski: they’re simply in actual hazard of getting mired within the Center Group Muck

Hokius: One other Royals query, what does ZiPS make of Salvador Perez? I’m positive he’s due for some regression, however how probably is he to complete the season as a well-above common hitter on the entire?

Dan Szymborski: his zstats are chef’s kiss

Dan Szymborski: skeptical on the BA half, however totally endorses the facility

Al Jones: Is the Orioles offense coming again right down to earth a bit? Clearly there’s Gunnar and Adley, however  I’m undecided what to consider Westburg/Cowser

Dan Szymborski: Cowser was more likely to come again extra

bb: Is somebody who voluntarily eats Spam certified to be a chili gatekeeper?

Dan Szymborski: relies upon

Dan Szymborski: in case you’re consuming it straight from the can, no

Dan Szymborski: however fried spam is absolutely good

Experge: For gamers which have constantly outperformed their projections, taking part in higher than their age would usually recommend, does ZiPS modify to replicate their slower getting older curve or does it all the time mission a decline?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t foudn the blokes that do this

Dan Szymborski: Problems with *bias* are far simpler to wring out than questions of *accuracy*

Deck: The issue with sabermetrics giving the ‘profitable technique’ is that profitable hasn’t budged.  The common workforce nonetheless loses half its video games.  The purpose of any spectator sport is leisure.  Total, baseball appears to be falling down on that rating.

Dan Szymborski: However every workforce remains to be going to attempt to choose the most effective profitable technique

Dan Szymborski: so you need to change the meta

Mike: This complete chat is slanderous…..

Benjamin, J: Hello Dan! Which workforce’s success do you suppose is extra sustainable? The Royals or the Guardians?

Dan Szymborski: Guardians

Idiotic Failson: My controversial and proper opinion – The Beatles will not be a great band.

Insert Witty Identify Right here: With regard to Travis’ concern with the analytics going too far, my mini answer was to only sit and watch a recreation on mute.  Or go to the ball park and watch a recreation. We don’t NEED you Dan to benefit from the recreation.

Dan Szymborski: No one wants me for something ever, actually

Dan Szymborski: Even the very good lady my age who places up with me doesn’t REALLY want me

Confused Stathead: I do know wRC+ isn’t your wOBA/league common wOBA. So what’s it?

seth: is kenley jansen a one pitch pitcher now?

Dan Szymborski: Sure

Dan Szymborski: However in case you have just one good trick, make it a great one

SpicyBoi: Has Cody Bellinger accomplished sufficient this 12 months to persuade you that final 12 months’s efficiency is sustainable?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know what to make of him ever anymroe

Dan Szymborski: His complete profession is batshit random

Dan Szymborski: OH CRAP I FORGOT ROMAN ANTHONY COMPS

Dan Szymborski: Proper now, ZiPS has his high copm as Aaron Hicks

Dan Szymborski: Tuffy Rhodes

Dan Szymborski: Dwayne Murphy

Dan Szymborski: Reggie Thomas

Dan Szymborski: Larry Whisenton

Shirtless George Brett: How does zips deal with somebody like Lugo who goes from reliever to starter? Is it as confused as Iam?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has long-term knowledge on all strikes between

Dan Szymborski: Oh, I ought to be aware one factor on an earlier query

Dan Szymborski: Whereas ZiPS doesn’t issue within the historical past of being proper or fallacious on a participant’s projection *typically* (since that has no predictive worth)

Dan Szymborski: on issues like FIP relative to ERA over workforce and anticipated stats, it’s going to naturally imagine in a participant’s skill to over or underperform these as time goes on]

Dan Szymborski: So ZiPS would have a unique view of Tom Glavine close to the tip of his profession

Younger OF: In early 2017 I bear in mind projections favoring Conforto and Benintendi over Choose as a result of he made so little contact. Was Zips in settlement or did any of them imagine within the large?

Dan Szymborski: after 2016 season

Dan Szymborski:

E: No laborious and quick rule for 3Yr ZiPS usability; does that imply you haven’t accomplished a comparability to season 1 3YR ZiPS to season 2 3YR ZiPS? (Not making an attempt to troll, genuinely curious, and I do know you often test most of your different statistics on a long run foundation)

Dan Szymborski: It’s since you’re asking for a really particular reply to a somewhat non-specific place

Jurf: Simply realized ZIPS by no means notably liked Brennen David anyway. High comp, Carmelo Martinez? Oof.

Dan Szymborski: Carmelo Martinez had a profession most gamers can be very proud of

Shohei: Additionally, is a sushi roll a sandwich?

Dan Szymborski: No

Visitor: Re:Vientos not hitting properly sufficient for 1B: 14 groups presently have a collective wRC+ at or under 100 from the 1B place. Not an endorsement of Vientos, extra of an indictment of the place.

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, however you wish to change these guys

Visitor: We will put this all to relaxation with a purposeful linguistic check.  A lasagna shouldn’t be a casserole as a result of nobody in historical past has pointed at a lasagna and stated “go me the casserole”.  Likewise nobody in historical past has pointed at a scorching canine and stated “I’d like that sandwich please”

Dan Szymborski: No one has ever stated “go me the alcoholic beverage” to ask to have a beer handed to them, however that doesn’t imply that beer isn’t an alcoholic beverage

SpicyBoi: Am I fallacious for pondering Christopher Morel can develop into an elite hitter?

Dan Szymborski: Not essentially, a number of the parts of an elite hitter are current

Dan Szymborski: although it’s nto the typical consequence

Oh, Rosie: Do you imagine in Randy Arozarena or is he a ghost? Possibly there’s a scale, from tooth fairy (low) to evolution (excessive) for religion that he hits projections?

Dan Szymborski: He’s alive, plus I don’t imagine in ghosts

Dan’l: What share of your work motivation is your enjoyment of it, vs you could work to outlive, vs you suppose the product is helpful?

Dan Szymborski: I actually get pleasure from my work

Dan Szymborski: and I’d most likely do SOME of it at no cost if I had one other profession

Dan Szymborski: however I like doing it, I like folks giving me cash to do it, and I hope that individuals discover it helpful

Dan Szymborski: as a result of if my work isn’t helpful, it’s bizarre to be paying me.

Dan Szymborski: as a result of ain’t no person giving me cash for my persona

Bean Enjoyer: Why do you hate the legumes, man? Beans have a significantly larger EV than meat

Dan Szymborski: I like beans. However it’s not chili

Dan Szymborski: I get pleasure from tacos al pastor. I don’t desire a tacos al pastor cheesecake

Idiotic Failson: Do you need to decelerate whereas typing to precisely capitalize ‘ZiPS’?

Dan Szymborski: No, however I sort every little thing too shortly in chat so I can reply extra questions

Insert Witty Identify Right here: So there’s a brand new woman within the Szym life? That explains your extra cheery tone.

Dan Szymborski: No. Am I extra cheery?

davealden53: I’m in Cincinnati for 2 weeks.  I’ve had goetta and Skyline Chili

Dan Szymborski: I’m sorry your journey hasn’t gone properly

Epstein’s Mom: Re: Analytics sucking the enjoyable out of the sport, as an information scientist, it has all the time appeared to me to return right down to asking folks to optimize the fallacious factor.  Like, clearly every workforce is making an attempt to optimize defensive posistioning to maximise the fraction of time a ball put into play is changed into an out, and have every plate look put the mostemphasis on rising run worth. However in a closed-sum recreation, the full variety of wins will keep the identical, however the enjoyability of what’s basically leisure modifications in a manner that’s not being accounted for in any respect.  So folks fretting that they don’t like the sport as a lot is, to me, completely legitimate, and one thing the game ought to attempt to change. And they’re, which is nice!

Dan Szymborski: I believe MLB, in the event that they suppose it’s an issue, must be much more aggressive

Dan Szymborski: large bases? how about *80* toes to first base

Dan Szymborski: and I’d like to see them check out all types of stuff in indie leagues, even stuff that’s completely idiotic, simply to see what occurs. as a result of a failure would possibly give them an concept for an additional factor which may work

Dan Szymborski: what IF the taking part in area ought to have a wider arc?

Dan Szymborski: what IF a batter doesn’t have to succeed in first base with two outs on a grounder for the runner on third to attain?

Dan Szymborski: what IF it was 4 strikes and also you’re out?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know if any of those are good. However somebody ought to at the very least TRY

Dan Szymborski: (In truth, I dont’ suppose any of those are good, besides possibly the very first thing)

Dan Szymborski: the change in base distance

Visitor: what if it was a cheesecake with some taste of drizzle within the form of tacos al pastor on high

Dan Szymborski: It’s not tacos al pastor then

Dan Szymborski: If I eat a chocolate truffle within the form of a poop, I’m not consuming poop

Cat Latos: Cat mates cat mates how do they do

Dan Szymborski: They’re being actually rattling lazy in the present day

Dan Szymborski: Constantine began off chat asking me for dinner (which doesn’t come till 4) however he acquired drained and dozed off from the trouble

SpicyBoi: Re: analytics and enjoyable.  I do suppose MLB has an enjoyability drawback. League common OPS is beneath .700 proper now. The offensive run surroundings is tremendous depressed. I believe we should always return to juiced baseballs and spider tack. 2018-2019 was a extremely enjoyable time for the league imo

Visitor: My spouse discovered a recipe for pickle cheesecake in an outdated recipe guide. It was … attention-grabbing.

Visitor: I forgot about Mat Latos! additionally I’m a pair months older than him however he’s been out of the league 7 years

Dan Szymborski: didn’t you ever see the Cat Latos image?

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: as for pickle cheesecake, properly, I’ve some AI horrors for you…

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski:

One other Dan: I’d wish to make a movement for all of the spider tack, all of the steroids, juiced balls, and all the cocaine

Dan Szymborski: cocaine appeared nice for baserunning

Re: Nats: What does a CJ Abrams extension appear to be? Presumably at or under the 192/9 you projected for Elly final month?

Dan Szymborski: under, but it surely’s transferring up

Visitor: I heard about his cat named Cat Latos, don’t bear in mind an image

Visitor: Isnt that type of insulting to the gamers in indy leagues ?

Dan Szymborski: It doesn’t should essentially be there, but it surely must be SOMEWHERE

SpicyBoi: How do you select which inquiries to reply? Is it since you like a few of us greater than others?

Dan Szymborski: It’s all chaos

Dan Szymborski: although I attempt to reply questions I can reply shortly

Dan Szymborski: and that don’t have solutions very particular to the opposite individual

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: and on that gross be aware, I’ll head out for an additional week

Dan Szymborski: thanks for coming everybody!