Citizen Bull a Good Wager to Publish Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Upset

A terrific area has turned out for Friday’s $2 million Grade 1 FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile introduced by TAA at Del Mar. Probably the most prestigious grime race of the yr for 2-year-old colts and geldings has drawn each Grade 1 winner within the division, together with a few Grade 3 winners and a trio of worldwide raiders.

Who will cross the end line in first place after 1 1/16 miles and declare the 30 qualifying factors on the Street to the 2025 Kentucky Derby introduced by Woodford Reserve? That’s a troublesome query, as a result of the favorites, whereas gifted and completed, have potential drawbacks.

We’ll begin with #1 East Avenue (5-2), a superbly bred son of Medaglia d’Oro. The bay colt is unbeaten and unchallenged in two begins. He debuted at Ellis Park in a maiden particular weight sprinting six furlongs and wired the sector by eight lengths. Then he tackled the 1 1/16-mile Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland and once more led all the way in which to win by 5 1/4 lengths over the Grade 1-placed #4 Ferocious (6-1). On the time of the Breeders’ Futurity, nonetheless, the grime observe at Keeneland was arguably favoring horses who raced inside. East Avenue’s dominance could have been exaggerated by the observe profile. He figures to face a more durable activity over a observe that performs extra pretty within the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile whereas breaking from the within publish with tempo rivals to his outdoors.

A scorching tempo may favor #10 Chancer McPatrick (3-1), a deep-closing son of McKinzie who has rallied to win the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes and Grade 1 Champagne Stakes. The undefeated colt made an eye catching transfer across the flip of the Champagne, sweeping previous rivals on his approach to a 2 3/4-length triumph. It’s value noting, nonetheless, that Chancer McPatrick has but to race round two turns, which is the configuration he’ll sort out within the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Horses who efficiently rally from behind in one-turn races generally wrestle to breed their finest type round two turns, in order that’s a query mark for Chancer McPatrick.

The place does this go away us for betting the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile? If the favorites are susceptible, maybe we are able to beat them with longshot #6 Citizen Bull (10-1), one of many different Grade 1 winners within the area.

A son of five-time main North American sire Into Mischief, Citizen Bull has proven spectacular versatility by way of working fashion. He debuted in a dash at Del Mar, the place he pressed the tempo earlier than taking up to defeat future Speakeasy Stakes runner-up Smash It by three-quarters of a size.

Citizen Bull modified ways for his second begin, rallying from sixth place to complete third within the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity sprinting seven furlongs. Then, after posting a few quick morning exercises, Citizen Bull stretched out to 1 1/16-miles for the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes introduced by DK Horse and led all the way in which to win by two lengths.

Citizen Bull is conditioned by Corridor of Fame coach Bob Baffert, who has received the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile a record-equaling 5 occasions. After the American Pharoah, Baffert stated that Citizen Bull “actually wanted” his run within the Del Mar Futurity as a result of he was “heavy, and he’s nonetheless heavy.” Baffert then voiced the assumption that Citizen Bull would profit from his run over a gradual and tiring observe within the American Pharoah. That actually seems to have been the case. Citizen Bull has been coaching up a storm for the reason that American Pharoah. On three events he’s labored out 5 furlongs at Santa Anita, recording swift occasions of :59, :59 4/5, and :58 4/5. Two of these morning strikes had been bullets.

The stage seems set for Citizen Bull to ship a career-best efficiency within the American Pharoah. Drawing outdoors East Avenue affords him choices for figuring out a good pace-stalking journey. If East Avenue tires after going through tempo strain from fellow velocity horses like #2 Getaway Automotive (20-1) or probably #5 Jonathan’s Method (9-2), Citizen Bull can put on him down and spring an upset at double-digit odds.

We received’t overcomplicate our Breeders’ Cup Juvenile betting technique. Since Citizen Bull’s 10-1 odds are engaging, a easy win guess is so as. We’ll additionally play him on prime of exacta tickets utilizing East Avenue and Chancer McPatrick for second place, and if you happen to’re enjoying on a bigger funds, we’ll throw in a saver exacta utilizing Citizen Bull for second place.

            Wagering Technique on a $12 Funds

            $8 to win on #6 Citizen Bull

            What to say on the betting window: Del Mar, ninth race, $8 to win on 6

            $2 exacta: 6 with 1,10 ($4)

            What to say on the betting window: Del Mar, ninth race, $2 exacta 6 with 1,10

            Wagering Technique on a $36 Funds

            $16 to win on #6 Citizen Bull

            What to say on the betting window: Del Mar, ninth race, $16 to win on 6

            $4 exacta: 6 with 1,10 ($8)

            What to say on the betting window: Del Mar, ninth race, $4 exacta 6 with 1,10

            $6 exacta: 1,10 with 6 ($12)

            What to say on the betting window: Del Mar, ninth race, $6 exacta 1,10 with 6

            Good luck, and benefit from the race!