Christian Walker Is Having a Righteous Stroll 12 months

He will not be enjoying in Arlington tonight, however Christian Walker simply wrapped up an All-Star degree first half. The Diamondbacks first baseman got here into the All-Star break ranked third within the Nationwide League with 22 dwelling runs, fifth with 66 RBI, and among the many high 15 certified batters in wOBA (.357), xwOBA (.365), and wRC+ (131). His 10 OAA are third-most amongst NL fielders, whereas his 7 DRS, 4.1 UZR, and eight FRV are all the highest marks at his place. Because of his spectacular defensive efficiency, the two-time Gold Glove winner is the one certified NL first baseman who has offered constructive defensive worth at first regardless of the hefty positional adjustment. On high of that, he has performed in all 97 of Arizona’s video games to date, placing him on tempo for greater than 700 plate appearances this season.

Add his offense, protection, and sturdiness collectively and also you get 2.9 WAR, which locations Walker within the high 15 amongst NL place gamers and high 30 within the majors. Contemplating that 46 place gamers had been invited to the Midsummer Basic this yr, it’s onerous to disclaim that Walker is having an All-Star worthy season. On the identical time, it’s additionally onerous to get too fired to up about his “snub.” Bryce Harper and Freddie Freeman have put up superior offensive numbers and WAR totals, rightfully incomes the 2 assured spots for first basemen on the NL roster. As well as, three NL gamers with extra WAR and arguably even stronger All-Star instances than Walker had been additionally left off the squad: Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, and Willy Adames. Lastly, this isn’t even probably the most disappointing time Walker has missed out on a visit again to Globe Life Subject inside the previous 10 months. Nonetheless, it’s a disgrace that Walker’s wonderful first half will go unrewarded. At 33 years previous, the late bloomer is placing collectively one of the best season of his profession on the plate and within the subject. Absolutely, that deserves to be celebrated.

At this level, Walker is used to being underestimated. He has been a regression candidate because the second he first tasted large league success. Following his breakout rookie season in 2019 (111 wRC+, 3.0 WAR) ZiPS projected a step again in ’20; as Dan Szymborski put it, “The projections aren’t utterly bought on Christian Walker, nonetheless seeing him as a league-average first baseman.”

It’s not obscure why ZiPS was skeptical of Walker. At 29 years previous, he had just one profitable main league season underneath his belt, and no projection system might anticipate him to take care of his ridiculous defensive numbers at first base. ZiPS wasn’t unsuitable, both, as he took a major step again in 2020 and a good larger step again in ’21. Thus, the system was nonetheless skeptical of Walker after his second breakout season in 2022. Though Walker slugged 36 dwelling runs, led first basemen with 14 OAA, and completed with 4.0 WAR, Dan included him on his listing of ZiPS bust hitters getting into 2023, describing him as “clearly not a star, only a good league-average first baseman coming off a peak yr.” But, lo and behold, Walker virtually completely replicated his 2022 season in ’23. He completed with a 120 wRC+ and three.9 WAR, whereas deservedly successful his second Gold Glove in as a few years. To be clear, I don’t convey this as much as dunk on ZiPS, however fairly to reveal what number of instances Walker has exceeded expectations in his uncommon profession.

Certainly, ZiPS underestimated Walker as soon as once more heading into 2024; he has already surpassed his preseason 2.7 WAR projection in keeping with ZiPS Depth Charts. Nevertheless, the truth that projection techniques (and ZiPS is hardly the one one) preserve promoting Walker brief is a function, not a bug. A superb projection system isn’t going to anticipate a career-best efficiency from a participant as he enters his mid-30s. Projections techniques are constructed on historic comps, and Walker has defied the standard development of a serious league profession. In his age-33 season, he’s on tempo for career-highs in plate appearances, video games performed, dwelling runs, RBI, runs scored, wOBA, xwOBA, wRC+, OAA, FRV, and WAR:

When Walker spoke to David Laurila forward of the 2023 season, he defined how “information and onerous numbers” have helped him belief his course of throughout troublesome stretches. Lacking out on an All-Star nod amid what may very well be one of the best season of his profession is definitely disappointing, however so long as he focuses on the information and onerous numbers, he ought to be nothing however happy together with his first-half efficiency.

Underlying Walker’s career-best 131 wRC+ is a career-best 103.4 EV50 (the common exit velocity of the toughest 50% of his batted balls) and a career-best 36.3% sweet-spot price, leading to a career-best 15.7% barrel price. He has additionally elevated his pull price and lowered his reverse subject price on fly balls. The truth is, practically all of his extra-base hits have been pulled this yr, which stands out in comparison with final yr, when he sprayed the ball to all fields:

This might be a warning signal that Walker is promoting out to tug extra fastballs as he ages. Nevertheless, I’m not seeing many different indications of age-related decline. His bat velocity is elite (92nd percentile), and his whiff price stays primarily unchanged from final season. Furthermore, he has accomplished extra harm on curveballs (+4 run worth, per Baseball Savant), changeups (+4), and sweepers (+4) than he has on all different pitches this season. That’s not what you’d anticipate from a hitter sitting fastball.

That mentioned, Walker is hanging out noticeably extra typically this season (25.2%) than he did in 2023 (19.2%), to the purpose that no certified NL batter has seen a bigger enhance in strikeout price. Nevertheless, it’s onerous to fret an excessive amount of about this improvement after taking a look at Walker’s underlying plate self-discipline information. Each his whiff price (misses as a share of swings) and his swinging-strike price (swings and misses as a share of all pitches) are ever so barely down from final season. So is his chase price. What’s extra, his first-pitch strike price is down from 60.2% to 55.7%. Solely three certified NL batters have seen a decrease price of first-pitch strikes this season, and no NL batter has began extra plate appearances forward within the depend. As you’d anticipate, Walker has accomplished fairly effectively for himself when he begins out 1-0, posting a 186 wRC+. Sadly, he has been worse than in previous years when he will get into an 0-1 gap (75 wRC+). However that’s been occurring much less typically, so the tradeoff definitely appears to be price it.

All that is to say, I’m inclined to consider Walker’s rising strikeout price is the results of acutely aware decision-making on the plate fairly than an lack of ability to maintain up with opposing pitchers. Take into account this: Walker has been much more prone to whiff with two strikes this season than he was in 2022 or ’23, but his wOBA, xwOBA, and run worth in two-strike counts are all increased this yr than in another full season. My apologies in the event you’re uninterested in studying about all of the methods by which Walker is having a career-best season, however you’re going to must take that up with the person himself.

As luck would have it, Walker is having fun with this wonderful season together with his first foray into free company on the horizon. Thus, his title has come up in a little bit of commerce hypothesis; earlier this month, Jon Heyman known as Walker the Astros’ “dream goal” forward of the deadline. It appears unlikely that the reigning NL champs would promote this summer time, particularly not now that they’re again above .500 and only a recreation behind the Mets for the ultimate wild card spot, however it’s price mentioning that on July 1 basic supervisor Mike Hazen wouldn’t commit to purchasing when requested about his deadline plans. Maybe the truth that his staff has gone 8-5 since his feedback has modified his thoughts, however then once more, a shedding streak after the All-Star break might swing the pendulum again in the wrong way. Even when the Diamondbacks don’t purchase on the deadline, I’d anticipate them to face pat. Their greatest wager may very well be to hope that Corbin Carroll turns his season round and veteran starters Jordan Montgomery, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Merrill Kelly return sturdy and wholesome from the IL. Nevertheless, if issues go particularly poorly within the 10 video games between the All-Star break and the deadline, maybe Hazen might be swayed by a robust sufficient supply for Walker. In any case, Walker may very well be one of the best rental and one of many few affect bats accessible on a vendor’s market.

Nonetheless, the extra probably consequence is that Walker stays with the D-backs come July 31. In that case, the staff will certainly lengthen him a qualifying supply after the season, and he’ll virtually certainly decline, setting himself as much as check free company for the primary time.

I discover it greater than a bit of irritating {that a} participant who made his MLB debut at 23 years previous in 2014 won’t grow to be a free agent till the 2024-25 offseason, forward of his age-34 marketing campaign. Most gamers in the same scenario would have misplaced their peak incomes years to the bogus constraints of the arbitration system. Nevertheless, in Walker’s uncommon case, he may simply be reaching free company on the good second. Throughout spring coaching, he instructed The Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro how proud he’s to really feel like he’ll have authentic leverage to wield as a free agent: “It’s a way of accomplishment… We now have the ball in our court docket. It hasn’t at all times felt that method.” And that was earlier than he put collectively one of the best first-half efficiency of his profession.

Christian Walker won’t be an All-Star, however he’s enjoying one of the best baseball of his profession, and he’s setting himself up properly without cost company this winter.