Catchers Have Been Pickier About Pickoffs in 2024

The catcher pickoff is one among my favourite performs in baseball. It’s spectacular virtually each single time. Not solely do backpicks name for exceptional agility and arm energy on the catcher’s half, however additionally they require a Holmesian potential to learn the diamond. Are any runners getting cocky? Is the protection prepared for a pickoff throw? Can the staff danger a throwing error? The catcher must make these choices quickly, all whereas nonetheless performing his common duties behind the plate. It’s not straightforward.

To that time, I like catcher pickoffs a lot as a result of they’re a pleasant reminder of the extent of expertise on show in skilled baseball. In all my years of childhood rec league play, I by no means noticed a catcher pull off a backpick. I don’t assume I ever noticed anybody strive. The probabilities of success had been too low, and the chance of a catastrophic error was too excessive. Catcher pickoffs are higher left to the professionals. But this yr, even the professionals are leaving them to another person.

Here’s a supercut of each catcher pickoff thus far within the 2024 season. You would possibly discover there aren’t many:

In accordance with the data at Baseball Reference, there have been a complete of seven catcher pickoffs this yr. Simply previous the quarter mark of the season, that places the league on tempo for 26 backpicks in 2024. Final yr, there have been 49. In every of the earlier two seasons, we noticed 51. Over the past 20 years, there has by no means been a full season with fewer than 41 catcher pickoffs. The numbers are, maybe, much more dramatic for those who take away cross-listed pickoff/caught stealing performs. There have solely been 5 pure catcher pickoffs this yr, placing the league on tempo for simply 19 by season’s finish:

In 2023, the league leaders in catcher pickoffs had been Keibert Ruiz (6), Patrick Bailey (4), and Francisco Alvarez (4). In 2022 and ’23 mixed, the leaders had been Ruiz (10), Jose Trevino (7), and Elias Díaz (6). Whereas three of these 5 catchers have hung out on the IL this season, that group has nonetheless mixed to catch 933.1 innings over 115 video games. That’s almost equal to a full season of labor behind the dish. They’ve but to select off a single runner.

Right here’s one other enjoyable approach to consider how few catcher pickoffs we’ve seen in 2024. Thus far this yr, there have been extra profitable steals of house plate (9) than profitable catcher pickoffs (7). That’s partly as a result of steals at house are up, however nonetheless, this merely doesn’t occur. Like, ever:

Coming into the 2023 season, I believed we would see an uptick in backpicks. I used to be hardly alone. Willson Contreras, one of many biggest backpick artists of his era, took observe of the truth that the brand new disengagement guidelines didn’t restrict catcher pickoff makes an attempt. He stated the Cardinals must be “good” relating to “when our catchers backpick runners.” Supervisor Oliver Marmol sang an analogous tune, praising his new catcher’s pickoff skills. He stated Contreras would “play a giant half” in stopping runners from “stretching out” their major and secondary leads. Extra catchers, similar to Sean Murphy (“Yeah, which means we’ll throw extra”), and managers, together with Gabe Kapler (“We’re emphasizing backpicks”), made related remarks.

A couple of months into the 2023 season, Kiri Oler seemed on the knowledge and concluded that “the numbers recommend catchers might be throwing behind runners considerably extra within the identify of protecting runners on edge.” She discovered that backpicks had been a way more efficient device for discouraging stolen bases than conventional pitcher pickoff throws. But, if catchers had been throwing behind runners any extra usually, they weren’t incomes any extra pickoffs. League-wide catcher pickoff totals had been remarkably constant from 2021 to ’23. Now, within the second season below the brand new disengagement guidelines, catcher pickoffs are disappearing.

This disappearing act is particularly noteworthy contemplating common catcher pop instances have gotten faster in recent times (at the very least as of Ben Clemens’s piece on the stolen base charge from final month). What’s extra, it’s not as if runners have been further cautious on the bases this season; if something, it’s the other. The stolen base try charge is barely up, whereas the stolen base success charge is barely down. Equally, runners are making outs on base (OOB) and taking further bases (XBT%) at related charges to final season, in line with Baseball Reference.

Most curiously, the decline in catcher pickoffs has not resulted in fewer pickoffs total. Ninety-nine runners have been picked off this season, placing the league on tempo for 368 pickoffs by the point the calendar flips to October. That will be the very best whole in a single season since 2012. Evidently, this implies pitcher pickoffs are on the rise. If present traits maintain, pitchers alone will end the season with extra pickoffs (342) than pitchers and catchers mixed in 2023 (341). Pitchers haven’t surpassed the 300-pickoff mark since 2012; they’re on tempo to smash previous that threshold in 2024.

On the one hand, it is smart that pitchers would enhance their pickoff throws with a full season of latest disengagement rule expertise below their belts. That stated, it stands to purpose that runners, too, would get higher at profiting from the brand new guidelines. A current article from The Athletic famous that “stolen-base percentages truly went down with every pickoff try final season, maybe as a result of baserunners weren’t but attuned to exploiting the brand new guidelines. This season, runners are taking fuller benefit. In accordance with STATS Carry out, the stolen-base proportion after zero pickoff [attempts] is .77 %. After one, it’s .81. After two, .87.”

Thus, whereas pitchers are getting higher at selecting off runners, the penalty of a failed pitcher pickoff try has elevated. That being so, you would possibly assume catcher pickoffs would rise in consequence. Runners’ taking extra aggressive leads supplies the chance, whereas the disengagement restrict for pitchers supplies the motive. The case is stable. However, issues definitely haven’t performed out that approach. What’s up with that?

Maybe it isn’t actually concerning the pickoffs, at the very least indirectly. As a substitute, catchers would possibly merely be inserting larger emphasis on a distinct side of their sport: framing. Groups knew pitch framing was essential lengthy earlier than that they had any metrics to quantify it. Now that we’ve the numbers, framing is extra in vogue than ever. In consequence, it’s seemingly groups are prioritizing framing over different methods (i.e. pickoffs) in spring coaching, sport plans, and the second. I’ve already described how troublesome a backpick may be. Now think about making an attempt to drag one off whereas concurrently making an attempt to steal a strike. It’s all however inconceivable. If something, I’d assume backpicks have the other impact; pitches within the strike zone are in all probability extra more likely to be referred to as balls on catcher pickoff makes an attempt. Certainly, Noah Woodward discovered simply that in a piece for his Substack, The Advance Scout. Woodward additionally means that the one-knee-down catching stance, identified to assist with pitch framing, makes it more durable for catchers to drag off backpicks. As this catching setup rises in recognition, it is smart that we might see fewer catcher pickoffs.

Good pitch framing isn’t almost as thrilling as a profitable backpick, neither is an additional referred to as strike almost as helpful as a pickoff. Finally, nonetheless, there’s extra worth to be gained from framing than backpicks over the course of the season. If a catcher can solely do one or the opposite, it’s not arduous to see why framing wins out. Even Willson Contreras appears to agree. Contreras recorded 28 pickoffs from 2016-22 with the Cubs. Throwing behind runners was his signature talent. But, ever since he signed with the Cardinals – who inspired him to work on his framing and swap to a one-knee-down place – he has not picked off a single runner. The proof could also be circumstantial, but it surely’s nonetheless compelling.

If catchers are actually letting pickoffs fall by the wayside in an effort to steal extra strikes, it’s value remembering that pitchers are selecting up the slack. In different phrases, it could be a win-win. For the reason that disengagement limits had been launched, pitchers have been selecting runners off with larger effectivity than earlier than. Which means pitcher pickoff makes an attempt are much less detrimental than we would have thought. In the meantime, catcher pickoff throws nonetheless include vital danger connected; as Kiri defined in her piece final yr, the chance of an error is considerably increased on a catcher pickoff throw than a pitcher pickoff throw. Moreover, whereas every pitcher disengagement marginally will increase the probabilities of a profitable steal, a throwing error all however ensures the runner an additional base. Subsequently, if pitchers can efficiently choose runners off at a excessive sufficient charge, pitcher pickoff throws could be a safer choice for the protection than backpick makes an attempt. Therefore the win on each fronts; catchers may be extra environment friendly once they give attention to framing over pickoffs, and pickoffs would possibly nonetheless be extra environment friendly coming from pitchers fairly than catchers.

It would take much more knowledge earlier than we will say with any certainty that catchers are actually shifting away from backpicks. In spite of everything, we’re solely seven weeks into the season. Furthermore, catcher pickoffs are all the time so low in quantity that the league-wide backpick tempo may skyrocket shortly. However hey, if we all the time waited to put in writing about traits till they had been simple, we wouldn’t be doing an excellent job telling the story of the season because it performs out. Pickoffs, each the catcher and pitcher selection, are one thing to maintain an in depth eye on for the remainder of the yr. That shouldn’t be arduous to do — pickoffs are fairly enjoyable to observe.

All stats and rankings by Could 16.