Cash line picks for this week’s video games

The NFC is staring up on the Detroit Lions. Week 12’s recreation between the San Francisco 49ers and Inexperienced Bay Packers might decide who’ll be part of them within the convention race to a spot in Tremendous Bowl 59.

A struggling San Francisco staff heads north Sunday for a date with a Packers facet not fairly as intimidating as their 7-3 file suggests. A loss in Inexperienced Bay wouldn’t be deadly to both’s playoff hopes — however a win could possibly be a press release for a proficient staff able to wrecking the remainder of the NFC with a well-timed scorching streak.

Who’s gonna emerge victorious in Week 12’s matchups? Let’s take a more in-depth look and see if we will discover some straight-up winners on this 13-game slate.

I ended 2023 as Pickwatch’s high professional in a discipline of a whole lot. In reality, I’m now performing some facet work in Pickwatch’s VIP Discord channels if you wish to discuss extra about these video games.

Becoming a member of me for 2024 is a six-person panel starting from FTW editors (Charles Curtis, Mary Clarke) to betting analysts (Prince Grimes) to NFL writers (Robert Zeglinski, Andrew Joseph, out this week, and Meghan Corridor). Listed below are our Week 12 picks:

and:

Since our enhancing software program often struggles to make these picks tremendous clear, right here they’re in a better to learn (however unimaginable to chop and paste) jpg:

Let’s break down three video games primarily based on what I do and don’t like.

Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Pictures

Why I like this decide:

Washington is at dwelling, in want of a get-right recreation and going through a division rival limping round like a wounded deer. Simply in time for buck season.

Why I don’t like this decide:

Jayden Daniels isn’t fairly the menace he as soon as was and groups have found out easy methods to take Terry McLaurin out of his gameplan. Kliff Kingsbury has one thing cooking for that, however a gradual weight-reduction plan of Trevon Diggs might restrict the Washington offense.

Final week: 1-0
2024 thus far: 9-2 (.818)

Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK through Imagn Pictures

Why I like this decide:

I don’t belief the 49ers. Kyle Shanahan’s capacity to create house for his wideouts has dipped in 2024 and, for the primary time in six years, San Francisco doesn’t rank within the high three in relation to yards after catch. Meaning Brock Purdy has to fireplace passes into tight home windows and is starting to look extra just like the neglected prospect he was coming into the league in 2022 (sorta, he’s nonetheless so, so a lot better than a seventh spherical decide has any proper to be).

Inexperienced Bay’s protection has been extra competent than years previous below Jeff Hafley. Jordan Love has discovered to mess around his doofus throws very like the 49ers did years earlier with Jimmy Garoppolo. San Francisco’s run protection is a weak spot and Josh Jacobs has rounded again towards workhorse type. The Packers have a various receiving corps able to find holes round Deommodore Lenoir, Malik Mustapha and Charvarius Ward.

Why I don’t like this decide:

I don’t belief the Packers, both. San Francisco’s protection has taken a step again however nonetheless generates turnovers at a high 10 fee towards an offense good for at the very least one silly mistake per week. Kyle Shanahan and Matt LaFleur give off big “it’s the identical image” vibes, so nobody has the teaching edge.

Final week: 1-0
2024 thus far: 6-5 (.545)

Andrew Nelles / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK through Imagn Pictures

Since Week 8, the Patriots have flipped from hopeless to competent, successful two video games and dropping two extra by a mixed 9 factors. Their protection has been roughly common in that span and Drake Maye’s stay arm has taken benefit of the few alternatives he’s gotten. Miami’s protection hasn’t been as secure — it ranks twenty first towards the go over the past month.

Christian Gonzalez is nice sufficient to restrict Tyreek Hill. Christian Barmore’s return will probably be an emotional increase. It doesn’t matter what, this recreation needs to be considerably totally different than the Tyler Huntley-Jacoby Brissett crap-show that preceded it.

Gonzalez is only one man within the secondary, and fellow cornerbacks Jack Jones and Marcus Jones every have allowed a passer ranking over 100.0 in protection this fall. This appears like one other recreation the place New England will path late, then collapse when Maye throws an interception whereas attempting to do juuuuuust a bit an excessive amount of.

The Patriots street wins this season got here towards the September Bengals and Shane Waldron’s Bears, every of whom are worse than the present model of the Dolphins. It’s a guess on Jerod Mayo, who, ooooof.

Final week: 0-1
2024 thus far: 3-8 (.273)