The $1.25 million, Grade 1 DraftKings Travers Stakes Saturday at Saratoga drew an exceptionally sturdy discipline of eight together with Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes Offered by Mohegan Solar winner Fierceness, Grade 1 NYRA Bets Haskell Stakes winner Dornoch and Thorpedo Anna, who’s coming off a win within the Grade 1 Teaching Membership American Oaks and can try to grow to be the primary filly to win the “Mid-Summer time Derby” since 1915.
The Travers depth doesn’t finish there because the Jim Dandy runner-up and third place finishers, Sierra Leone and Batten Down, respectively, are additionally entered in addition to the one-two finishers within the Curlin Stakes final month, Unmatched Knowledge and Company Energy. Honor Marie rounds out the sphere off a rallying fourth-place effort within the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes behind Dornoch when final seen in June.
Evaluation and high win contenders:
The way in which this race will probably be run within the early levels will virtually actually determine which horse might, or might not, be in rivalry to win the race within the ultimate eighth of a mile. 5 of the eight contenders could be discovered on the lead within the opening quarter mile, or monitoring simply off the tempo. These which might be vast going across the first flip or expend an excessive amount of power making an attempt to get the lead could also be discovered wanting within the ultimate levels. Contemplating two of these, Dornoch and Fierceness, draw the skin two spots within the gate, jockey technique through the first portion of the race could also be important in figuring out whether or not both can win provided that they earned latest Equibase Pace Figures of 107 and 108, respectively. Even when repeated, these figures supply no superior margin in opposition to 4 different horses’ finest latest figures: Thorpedo Anna (105), Sierra Leone (106), Unmatched Knowledge (107) and Company Energy (105).
Contemplating Unmatched Knowledge gained the Curlin Stakes at Saratoga 5 weeks in the past main from begin to end, I imagine jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. will attempt to get the lead within the opening strides. Thorpedo Anna was second for the primary mile when profitable each the DK Horse Acorn Stakes and Teaching Membership American Oaks at Saratoga and may take up second place simply. That forces Dornoch and Fierceness both to accept being three or 4 paths vast going into the primary flip or to make use of quite a lot of power making an attempt to get in entrance of Unmatched Knowledge and Thorpedo Anna earlier than that time. Alternatively, if both Fierceness or Dornoch do get the lead earlier than the primary flip, they could use an excessive amount of power to take action and will probably be inclined to being handed within the stretch, with each Thorpedo Anna and Unmatched Knowledge settling behind in second and third or third and fourth. That situation advantages each Unmatched Knowledge and Thorpedo Anna. Unmatched Knowledge gained after stalking in second early one race earlier than the Curlin, and Thorpedo Anna has confirmed very profitable coming from way back to fourth after a quarter-mile to win.
Because it seems, each Thorpedo Anna and Unmatched Knowledge have an edge primarily based on their positions within the gate and the doubtless early tempo situations. This could form up as a incredible race, and they’re the 2 horses with a finest likelihood to win in my view. Thorpedo Anna is on a sample of enhancing Equibase Pace Figures, having gone from 94 profitable the Longines Kentucky Oaks, to 99 profitable the Acorn Stakes, after which to 105 within the CCA Oaks, and because the latter pair of races have been at Saratoga this filly will get slight desire to win the Travers and etch her identify within the historical past books as the primary feminine winner since Girl Rotha 109 years in the past. Unmatched Knowledge can also be on an enhancing sample, from 92 in his debut in Might, to 100 profitable in June, after which to 107 when victorious within the Curlin Stakes at Saratoga.
The ”X” issue is Company Energy, who could also be ignored within the wagering regardless of lacking by one size on the finish within the Curlin behind Unmatched Knowledge. He too is on a sample for enchancment, going from a 94 determine three races again to 103 profitable the Sir Barton Stakes Sponsored by Brandon and Diannah Perry to Profit TAA in Might after which to 105 within the Curlin. Since his effort within the Curlin got here off a two month layoff, Company Energy might enhance once more. Moreover, it should be famous his sire Curlin leads all sires of horses within the 2024 Travers by way of graded stakes winners at 10 furlongs on filth, having eight totally different horses which have gained related races (from 31 horses). Coach Shug McGaughey gained the 2019 Travers with Code of Honor, who gained the Dwyer Stakes one month earlier, with the identical 105 determine Company Energy earned in his most up-to-date race. I’ll strongly preserve this in thoughts when contemplating bets involving this race as a result of the sample is unattainable to disregard.
About the remaining: Dornoch has proven quite a lot of struggle in his final two begins – the Belmont Stakes and the Haskell Stakes – the place he led at a number of factors in every of the races however then was second with an eighth of a mile to go. In every occasion, Dornoch discovered one thing further each bodily and mentally to prevail, and positively the 106 and 107 figures earned, respectively, match with the very best within the discipline if repeated. There’s nonetheless a query of the place he could also be positioned within the opening furlongs of this yr’s Travers. He may very well be third, fourth of fifth going into the primary flip or across the flip, which is unfamiliar to him, or he may very well be vying for the lead and expending quite a lot of power going within the early levels. Each situations aren’t conducive to the sort of efforts he put forth within the Belmont or Haskell, so it could be troublesome for him to win his third straight race.
Sierra Leone will doubtless be final or second to final (behind Honor Marie) within the early levels and make his ordinary later run. Nevertheless, as proven within the Kentucky Derby Offered by Woodford Reserve (second), Belmont (third) and Jim Dandy (second) he normally has his work minimize out for him, though it should be famous the 109 determine earned within the Derby is nice sufficient to win if repeated and if not one of the others improves to that stage. In any other case, there’s little doubt Sierra Leone can rise up for second or third within the late levels as soon as extra.
Fierceness obtained again into profitable type with a really sharp effort within the Jim Dandy with a 108 determine, virtually pretty much as good because the 110 determine earned profitable the Curlin Florida Derby this previous spring. Nevertheless, as talked about above, I simply don’t see a tempo situation which favors him repeating both of these efforts on this discipline.
Batten Down was no match for Fierceness and Sierra Leone within the Jim Dandy as he completed 5 ¾ lengths in again of the latter. His finest determine is 98 and it might take important enchancment to run in addition to the highest contenders on this discipline. Honor Marie gained the Kentucky Jockey Membership Stakes final November with a 98 determine and earned the identical determine when a well-beaten fourth within the Belmont Stakes behind Dornoch.
Win Contenders in desire/likelihood order:
Thorpedo Anna
Company Energy
Unmatched Knowledge
