In a span of 5 days in 2023, the identical NFL workforce misplaced one recreation whereas scoring zero factors and gained one other by placing up 63. That is the fantastic thing about the Las Vegas Raiders.
Final yr’s Raiders workforce pruned one of many last branches from Invoice Belichick’s teaching tree by firing Josh McDaniels after 25 video games and a 9-16 document. In his place got here the linebacker that helped erase the 2007 New England Patriots’ 19-0 season, Antonio Pierce. Pierce, operating a head teaching marketing campaign of equal elements respect for his gamers and acknowledgment he was not, in actual fact, Josh McDaniels, went 5-4 on the helm to lock down the total time job for 2024.
Now comes the arduous half. Pierce inherits a workforce that punched above its weight class to wrap up 2023. His beginning quarterback will both be:
- Aidan O’Connell, a 2023 fourth spherical choose who was, statistically, that yr’s third-worst quarterback (forward of solely Mac Jones and Zach Wilson), or
- Gardner Minshew, a cromulent backup who can function in a restricted system and is already on his fourth NFL workforce in six seasons.
His prime wideout is a 31-year-old coming off his least environment friendly season since 2015. The operating again who led the league in dashing yards in 2022 is now a Inexperienced Bay Packer. The sting rush past famous person Maxx Crosby will depend on a participant who had two sacks between 2021 and 2022 persevering with his Pierce-coded breakthrough.
And but, it feels silly to jot down the Raiders off in 2024. Let’s take a look at how a person who’d by no means been greater than a linebackers coach on the NFL degree can proceed thriving.
Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports activities
The Raiders can survive with a reliable offense. However that’s a giant ask.
Las Vegas has one of many league’s grimmer quarterback conditions; a timeshare between veteran and younger prospect, solely as an alternative of a vaunted first spherical choose, the man the Raiders hope to mildew right into a franchise quarterback was a Day 3 choose.
That doesn’t imply Aidan O’Connell can’t emerge as a dependable starter, however his rookie numbers would possibly. On the floor, he was viable; 12 landing passes in 11 video games towards seven interceptions and a 62 % completion fee. These aren’t world beating numbers, however his 83.9 passer score was higher than fellow younger QBs like Desmond Ridder, Kenny Pickett, Sam Howell, or Mac Jones.
Besides, properly, all these guys obtained traded this offseason by groups tired of growing their expertise any additional. O’Connell stays, partly as a result of he completed with a flourish. After a rocky begin, he threw 9 touchdowns towards one interception in his last six video games, going 3-3 within the course of. He additionally threw for less than 212 yards per recreation, was reliably motionless and averaged a lack of seven yards per sack.
This left his general influence, even in his finest stretch, beneath common by way of anticipated factors added (EPA).
by way of rbsdm.com and the writer.
These numbers paint him as the same caliber quarterback because the man who’ll be a part of him on the depth chart this fall. Minshew was a Professional Bowler in 2023, which ought to inform you all it’s essential know concerning the quarterback availability on the NFL’s all-star recreation. The younger journeyman is a dependable backup whose rise has been restricted by his battle to make powerful throws within the intermediate vary. He blanks defenders in the course of the sphere, creating avoidable turnovers with irritating throws.
Gardner Minshew simply actually wished to throw an interception on this drive. #Colts#ForTheShoe#Jaguars#DUUUVAL#INDvsJAX pic.twitter.com/7Ez5Cf65fD
— Chris Shepherd (@NFLscheme) October 15, 2023
Per SIS, Minshew accomplished simply 53.9 % of his throws to journey between 10 and 19 yards downfield in 2023 and 47.5 % of all throws to go not less than 10 yards past the road of scrimmage. A part of this may be attributed to his incapability to stay set within the pocket; his penchant for scrambling, even with minimal stress, forces him into throws on the run and dangerous choices paired with dangerous footwork.
Typically, this works out and he wows you with a giant play. Typically it fails horribly. Now he will get an offense of playmakers who can bail him out in stretches, although it’s honest to surprise if we’ve seen the final of a very dominant Davante Adams.
Adams, partly as a consequence of quarterback points, averaged solely 6.5 yards per goal in 2023 — 103rd finest within the NFL and by far his worst quantity since rising as a real WR1 in 2016. His 1.95 yards per route run, nevertheless, ranked twenty fifth between Ja’Marr Chase and Michael Pittman, which is extra optimistic for his 2024.
However Adams will flip 32 years previous in December. Whereas his dimension will assist mitigate the lack of velocity that comes with age, he could cede a few of his absurd goal share (175 in 2023!) to Jakobi Meyers and Tre Tucker, the latter of whom was sneakily efficient briefly bursts as a rookie final fall. Extra importantly, O’Connell or Minshew can have two excessive profile tight ends to show quick targets into large beneficial properties in rookie first rounder Brock Bowers and 2023 second spherical choice Michael Mayer.
That’s a helpful assist system for a binary star of flawed quarterbacks, notably if Zamir White can step into the RB1 function for which he’s been primed. However the largest asset the Raiders have isn’t on the offensive facet of the ball.
Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports activities
Pierce turned the Las Vegas protection right into a genuinely scary unit final fall
Right here’s how the Raiders protection seemed in eight video games underneath McDaniels:
- Factors allowed per recreation: 23.4
- Yards allowed per recreation: 338
- Anticipated pointed added (EPA) allowed per play: 0.038 (twenty sixth finest within the NFL)
Right here’s how the Raiders protection seemed in 9 video games underneath Pierce:
- Factors allowed per recreation: 16
- Yards allowed per recreation: 325
- EPA allowed per play: -0.141 (second finest within the NFL)
That’s a stark turnaround, even when the workforce was giving up the same quantity of yardage every week. What sparked the change? Pierce’s group confirmed up like a bunch of hungry goblins late within the season. Las Vegas had eight turnovers compelled in eight video games underneath McDaniels, six of which got here in tilts towards the Inexperienced Bay Packers and Detroit Lions. Beneath Pierce, they compelled 14 in 9 video games, together with 5 in a shellacking of the Los Angeles Chargers that sealed deposed head coach Brandon Staley’s destiny.
Malcolm Koonce performed a major a part of this glow-up. The previous third spherical choose was an afterthought his first two seasons within the league and for the primary half of 2023. However after McDaniels was fired, his snap share elevated and the previous College at Buffalo star shined; all eight of his sacks final yr and 14 of his 17 quarterback hits got here after Pierce took the reins.
Koonce isn’t but a full-time participant — even in his rise he nonetheless performed greater than two-thirds of the workforce’s defensive snaps solely as soon as, and that was within the last recreation of 2023 — however his athleticism has shined underneath Pierce, making him the right janitor to wash up the messes Crosby creates. That’s earlier than counting for brand spanking new arrival Christian Wilkins, who’ll guarantee there’s no room to step up within the pocket because of his penetration in the course of the road.
This additionally glosses over the truth that, even earlier than Wilkins arrival, the Raiders fielded the league’s finest run protection underneath Pierce by a large margin!
by way of rbsdm.com
This may have been a boon in your typical, secondary-deficient Raiders workforce. However final yr’s squad confirmed a move protection promise we haven’t seen in Las Vegas (and it had been some time since we’d seen it in Oakland, too). Trevon Moehrig is rising as a possible All-Professional security. Cornerback Jack Jones was a New England Patriots castoff who allowed a passer score of simply 63.0 in seven video games final season. Jakorian Bennett is flawed, however ought to be higher in his second season as a professional.
This all suggests the unimaginable end Pierce spurred in 2023 could be replicated in 2024, even when opposing offenses have slightly extra tape to churn. And with a mushy end to this yr’s schedule, one other rally could possibly be en route.
***
Look, I’ve gotta wrap this up. I may simply go 3,000 phrases on the Raiders, who could also be 2024’s most attention-grabbing workforce. There’s so much to love about this roster, and this coach, although many of the optimism hinges on a tiny pattern dimension.
Las Vegas has the potential to compete for a playoff spot and a head coach that was in a position to glean essentially the most from his guys when given the chance. The query now could be whether or not Antonio Pierce can preserve that going or if the bounce and optimism that comes from firing Josh McDaniels is a one-time factor.
If I needed to wager, I’d lean in to the over on Las Vegas’s line of 6.5 wins this season.
