Key Highlights:
- Within the final two video games, Nembhard averaged 28 PPG and 9.5 APG on 68% true taking pictures and 27.1% utilization. For the whole playoffs (17 video games), he averaged 14.9 PPG and 5.5 APG on 65.4% true taking pictures and 17.7% utilization.
- Nembhard combines a refined drive sport with nice passing, midrange contact, and perimeter protection.
- Nembhard isn’t almost the offensive engine that Brunson or Haliburton are, however he’s a a lot better defender than each of them.
After falling behind 2-0 to the Boston Celtics, the Indiana Pacers season regarded cooked, particularly after it regarded like Tyrese Haliburton – the crew’s All-NBA showman – can be down for the rely transferring ahead.
Two video games later, and it seems that the grim clouds have been certainly a sign for an incoming storm, the Pacers dropped Video games 3 and 4 en path to a sequence sweep. Nevertheless, these video games weren’t blowouts. The Pacers misplaced every sport by three factors, holding leads deep into the fourth quarter of each competitions. They stayed aggressive regardless of not having their finest participant. However how?
Two phrases: Andrew Nembhard. After dropping his All-NBA teammate, the second-year combo guard rose to the event, averaging 28 PPG and 9.5 APG on 68% true taking pictures and 27.1% utilization.
This two-game run, coupled along with his wonderful postseason debut (14.9 PPG and 5.5 APG on 65.4% true taking pictures and 17.7% utilization in 17 video games), has many individuals dreaming about Nembhard’s future. So, simply how good can Nembhard really be?
A Flawed Scorer With Fancy Footwork
The strongest a part of Nembhard’s arsenal is his drive sport. Within the common season, he positioned within the 83rd percentile in drives quantity and the sixtieth percentile in drives effectivity (per the Pondering Basketball database). And within the playoffs, he leveled up his effectivity to the purpose the place he now sits within the 82nd percentile in true taking pictures on drives.
Nevertheless, numbers alone don’t inform the entire story with Nembhard. To actually seize his downhill splendor, it’s good to spend a while with the tape. There, you will notice a masterclass in footwork, stride size, modifications in velocity, physique management, and physicality.
Now, Nembhard’s drive sport isn’t excellent. He depends significantly on his proper hand, lacks the power to blow up on the rim, and doesn’t all the time get all the best way to the basket earlier than ending (twenty ninth percentile in rim makes an attempt per 75 possessions, per Dunks & Threes). However his craft and power allow him to beat these obstacles and switch what needs to be a weak point into one in every of his biggest strengths.
Since he can’t strain the paint like he’s Ja Morant, Nembhard typically has to depend on his midrange sport to get the job accomplished. Thankfully for Nembhard, he’s an elite midrange scorer – putting within the 79th percentile in midrange quantity and 92nd percentile in midrange effectivity through the common season.
[Sidebar #1: Nembhard is particularly adept in the short midrange. During the regular season, he placed in the 84th percentile in short midrange frequency and 76th percentile in short midrange accuracy among combo guards, per Cleaning the Glass.]
Nembhard’s 3-point taking pictures isn’t as minimize and dry. Within the playoffs, he hit 48.3% of his 3-point makes an attempt. That’s an superior mark, but when historical past is any indication, it isn’t one which may be very sustainable. In his two NBA seasons and 4 faculty seasons, Nembhard tried a mixed 871 3-point photographs. In that span, he transformed on solely 34.8% of these makes an attempt.
Can Nembhard parlay his scorching stretch into a greater 3-point proportion? His midrange percentages show that he actually has the contact for it. But when he can’t, that turns into a significant limiting consider his scoring arsenal.
If he can’t begin attending to the rim extra or grow to be a extra spectacular perimeter shooter, Nembhard will have to be higher at grifting free throw makes an attempt (14th percentile in free throw makes an attempt per 75 this season). His nice physique management and convincing pump faux ought to give him an edge right here, however for now, we’re nonetheless in wait and see mode. Even throughout his breakout playoff run, Nembhard was solely averaging 1.8 free throws per 75 (simply 0.7 free throw makes an attempt greater than he had within the common season).
A Nice Passer, However No Haliburton
Regardless of spending a big chunk of the season taking part in off-guard subsequent to Haliburton, Nembhard largely ran the purpose in highschool and faculty. Because of this, he was capable of seamlessly transition into an on-ball position in Video games 3 and 4 (therefore his 19 assists in these two video games).
As is the case along with his drive sport, the tape may be very sort to Nembhard’s passing prowess. It illustrates his capacity to shortly establish mismatches within the publish (first clip within the montage beneath), push the tempo with hit-ahead passes (second clip), spray kickouts to shooters on the surface (third), hit inside passes for layup passes (fourth), and beam skip passes after correctly studying the place the assistance is coming from (fifth).
Nonetheless, Nembhard’s passing/playmaking skills shouldn’t but be categorised within the elite class. Sometimes, his instincts and really feel fail him, which may make him a beat late along with his timing.
Take this clip, as an example. Nembhard makes the proper general choice by hitting Turner on the roll. Nevertheless, he most likely ought to have taken an additional dribble to make Xavier Tillman, the screener defender on the play, additional decide to his drive. This is able to have made it more durable for Tillman to rotate again to Turner and fewer probably that the Boston massive may have damaged up the play.
These subtleties are captured by metrics like Ben Taylor’s Passer Ranking statistic (an estimate of a participant’s passing capacity on an ‘roughly’ 1-10 scale). This season, Nembhard was within the 82nd percentile in Passer Ranking. That’s an admirable end, however a far cry from his teammate, the aforementioned Haliburton, who positioned within the a centesimal percentile in that class.
Perimeter Pitbull
Whereas Nembhard will not be the offensive juggernaut that his backcourt operating mate is, Nembhard makes up for it along with his contributions to the defensive aspect of the ball. He’s a robust defensive playmaker (72nd percentile in steal charge) with strong positional measurement (6’4) and a robust understanding of defensive schemes and fundamentals. General, Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus (which is, for my cash, the most effective defensive one-number metric) has him as an 88th percentile defender this season.
[Sidebar #2: As a team, the Pacers defense is 4.4 points stingier per 100 possessions when Nembhard is on the floor than when he is on the bench (84th percentile).]
Whereas one-number metrics aren’t excellent, I feel that DEF EPM does job of quantifying Nembhard’s defensive worth. Nembhard is an excellent guard defender, however he’s not an All-Defensive caliber crew one (like Alex Caruso or Derrick White).
We type of noticed this in opposition to the New York Knicks within the convention semifinals when, coincidentally sufficient, Jalen Brunson gave him the enterprise time and time once more. Based on NBA.com matchup information, Brunson was 26-for-39 (66.7%) on discipline aim makes an attempt when Nembhard was his major defender.
To be honest, Brunson offers most individuals the enterprise. So, we will’t use that as an excessive amount of of a demerit on his skills as a defender. However what does actually damage him is his measurement. Earlier, we stated he has strong positional measurement. That was an intentional selection of phrases. Nembhard’s measurement for a guard is strong however not nice. And given his standing as a guard, which means he’s vulnerable to assaults from larger wings/forwards. Like this bulldoze from Jaylen Brown in Sport 4:
Is Nembhard The Subsequent Brunson?
Now that we’ve got understanding of Nembhard’s sport, let’s get again to the unique query: can Nembhard breakout in a manner that’s much like what Brunson has accomplished these final two years?
First off, I ought to point out why I’m evaluating these two particularly. They’re each guards who spent three or extra years in faculty. They each performed at prestigious colleges that gave them loads of possibilities to play in massive video games (Brunson at Villanova, Nembhard at Florida, after which Gonzaga). Their “older” age (Brunson 21, and Nembhard 22) popping out of school damage their draft standing, resulting in each of them being chosen early within the second spherical. And lastly, they’re each extremely cerebral gamers that lean on their craftiness and mind to succeed.
As we’ve outlined above, Nembhard has a methods to go earlier than he can ever hope to grow to be the offensive engine that Brunson (0r Haliburton) is. However he additionally gives worth on the opposite aspect of the ball that far exceeds something Brunson (or Haliburton, once more) has to supply.
Shifting ahead, the areas to look at for Nembhard can be his passing/decision-making, rim/3-point taking pictures, free throw drawing, and utilization. Can Nembhard stage up as an on-ball creator with extra repetitions? Will he study to get to the rim extra steadily or convert his 3-pointers at the next proportion? If not, can he manipulate the sport in a manner that can garner him extra photographs on the charity stripe? And if his utilization does go up, can Nembhard keep respectable offensive effectivity and good defensive effort?
To be sincere, I don’t have an actual reply to all these questions. If I did, I’d promote the data off to the highest-bidding entrance workplace. What I can say, although, is that Nembhard’s good playoff flashes, excessive ability stage, and distinctive two-way ceiling for a ground common give him an actual likelihood at sooner or later blossoming into an All-Star caliber participant.
