One in every of my favourite articles to write down is the “you received’t imagine how this man is succeeding” piece. You’ve seen me – and loads of different writers – break it out again and again. Possibly it’s a reliever with a bizarre pitch, or a starter with a blazing fastball who’s nonetheless succeeding with secondaries. Maybe it’s a hitter excelling due to a novel method, or a slugger altering his recreation to prioritize one thing he didn’t earlier than. In any case, it’s enjoyable to subvert expectations, and it makes for story in addition.
Spare some thought for the gamers who succeed by doing precisely what you suppose they’re doing, although. They won’t garner as many headlines, however that doesn’t make what they’re doing any much less actual. I’ve a particular instance of this at present, somebody I hoped to write down about within the former model. I went searching for the one bizarre trick that made him tick, however I couldn’t discover one. Brent Rooker is succeeding with one extraordinarily regular trick: Each time he involves the plate, he tries to hit a house run.
Right here’s a consultant Rooker swing:
Right here’s one other:
You’ll discover a number of issues straight away. He swings arduous – his common swing velocity matches Bryce Harper and Matt Olson. He additionally swings with a pronounced uppercut. Most hitters hit extra residence runs on excessive pitches, due to the legal guidelines of physics. Rooker doesn’t have a single homer within the higher third of the strike zone this yr; he’s both annihilating pitches down the center or lifting low balls over the fence.
This isn’t a swing designed for optimum contact. Amongst certified hitters, Rooker’s contact charge is the second-lowest within the majors. Even when you widen the pattern to incorporate everybody with 200 or extra plate appearances, he’s within the backside 10. As a substitute, as you may count on from that uppercut form, it’s a swing designed to elevate the ball. Rooker makes his finest contact on upward trajectories. His squared-up charge is at its highest between 10 and 40 levels, with a reasonably constant sample:
His method mirrors his outcomes virtually completely. Rooker is twelfth in all of baseball in terms of residence runs per plate look within the final two years, fractionally behind Kyle Schwarber and Yordan Alvarez. He boasts the ninth-lowest GB/FB ratio; if he hits the ball on the bottom, it’s by chance. He has the fourth-highest strikeout charge; his all-or-nothing method results in its justifiable share of nothing.
The one stunning factor about Rooker’s recreation is how unsurprising all of it is. He’s not fooling anybody with what he’s doing. He’s not even altering his method all that a lot, the best way that almost all hitters do. He’s swinging at 71% of strikes general, a bit extra steadily than the league does as an entire (67%). When he will get to 2 strikes, he amps up his aggression, however not by as a lot as you’d count on. He swings at 84% of strikes, lower than the league (88%). His contact charge ticks down in two-strike counts, whereas the common hitter’s goes in the other way. When his again is towards the wall, Rooker merely modifications his recreation by lower than most do.
The results of that constant method is that Rooker strikes out fairly a bit when he reaches two-strike counts. Of the two-strike pitches he’s seen this yr, 27% have resulted in a strikeout, the eighth-highest mark within the majors. A special method would seemingly result in fewer strikeouts: Rooker doesn’t attain two-strike counts significantly usually, he simply doesn’t ease off the fuel as a lot as most hitters do when he will get there. He places much less emphasis on defending the plate and slows his swing by lower than the league common.
If that have been all that was occurring, I’d say that this plan was a nasty concept, however there’s a payoff right here. When Rooker does join with two strikes, he’s doing loads of harm. The league as an entire places up poor manufacturing on contact in two-strike counts. It’s for an apparent cause, specifically that when you’re swinging defensively, you hit with much less authority. In two-strike counts, hitters have produced a .344 wOBACON, as in comparison with .370 in all different counts.
Rooker has a .493 wOBACON in two-strike counts. Which may even understate his manufacturing; he’s produced the fourth-best xwOBACON (.529) in two-strike counts, behind solely Aaron Choose, Giancarlo Stanton, and Harper. The remainder of the highest 10 is an inventory of fearsome hitters: Rafael Devers, Shohei Ohtani, J.D. Martinez, Gunnar Henderson, Riley Greene, and Ronald Acuña Jr. Rooker isn’t their equal general, however he’s getting outcomes like theirs by taking his “A” swing extra usually, even when a miss means a strikeout.
Is that this keep-it-simple method working? It actually depends upon what you imply by working. Regardless of the ghastly swing-and-miss numbers and the pile of strikeouts, Rooker is doing higher than the league as an entire by way of two-strike manufacturing. As measured by run worth per 100 pitches, he’s barely higher than common, whereas the league is, naturally, precisely common.
It seems that Rooker’s power-on-contact talent makes up for his mountain of strikeouts. He’s third in all of baseball by way of wOBACON (manufacturing on contact) because the begin of 2023, behind solely Choose and Ohtani. This isn’t a matter of some flukish luck on batted balls, both; he’s fifth in xwOBACON, the model that makes use of launch angle and exit velocity as an alternative of noticed outcomes. If you happen to’d want barrels per batted ball, he’s eighth within the league. These aren’t cheapie homers. This isn’t a case of some residence runs sneaking over the wall and making him look good. The ability’s actual.
There’s no must get too fancy in decoding these outcomes, as a result of they match virtually precisely with what you’d count on from his course of. After all the man who swings arduous and tries to place the ball within the air does properly when he connects. After all the man who accepts additional misses in disadvantageous counts to maintain taking full swings seems good when he makes contact.
Generally what you see is what you get. That simply leaves one query: Can pitchers provide you with a counter to Rooker’s method? One apparent avenue to pursue is to pitch him excessive within the zone. He does a lot better on pitches within the backside third due to the form of his swing. The issue with that’s apparent, although: Do you actually need to feed the man who swings out of his sneakers a gradual food plan of fastballs? Most pitchers throw fastballs excessive and secondary pitches low to match the trajectory of the pitches. Excessive breaking balls aren’t exceptional, however they’re uncommon. Rooker could be a low-ball hitter, however he’s a robust man who takes massive swings, which makes him a fastball hitter too. Miss low together with your up-in-the-zone four-seamer, and he’ll make you pay.
The most effective resolution that pitchers have provide you with is staying away from Rooker normally. He sees fewer fastballs and fewer strikes than the common hitter, which makes nice sense. However that comes with downsides. Rooker is strolling 9.9% of the time this yr regardless of his contact points. The walks and homers imply that his strikeout charge is extra of an annoyance than an issue.
It looks like there have to be some trick right here, however there simply isn’t. Positive, Rooker is working the next BABIP than you’d count on, but when it declined by 50 factors, he’d nonetheless have a superb batting line. Positive, good massive league pitchers can reap the benefits of his swing, however after they don’t, he’ll make them pay. Our projection programs peg him for a batting line wherever between 20% and 30% higher than league common the remainder of the yr, which is correct in keeping with his 2023 season and his profession numbers.
Sure, it seems that swinging for the fences with plus energy works identical to you’d count on it could. That talent has served the A’s properly for the previous two years – and realistically, it’d serve another person properly in three weeks or so. Nook outfield and DH will each be sought-after positions on the commerce deadline, and the A’s are clearly sellers. Rooker received’t be a free agent till after the 2027 season, and he hasn’t even hit wage arbitration but. It’s not all sunshine and roses for a possible acquirer – Rooker has little defensive worth and is already 29 – however the pitch is straightforward right here: What you see is what you get, and what you see has been nice for 2 years working.
