All through a disappointing season for the Blue Jays, the long-term way forward for stars Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been a focus. Rumors surrounding the pair of second-generation stars dominated headlines early in the summertime because the Jays struggled, although they have been considerably quelled by GM Ross Atkins saying in early June that buying and selling both Guerrero or Bichette “doesn’t make any sense” for the group.
Whilst their 2024 playoff hopes dwindled, the Jays solely bought off impending free brokers upfront of the commerce deadline. Yusei Kikuchi, Danny Jansen, Yimi Garcia and Trevor Richards have been all on the transfer. Bichette, Guerrero, Chris Bassitt, Kevin Gausman and others stayed put, with the clear indication being that the Blue Jays hope to retool this offseason and get again on monitor to contend in 2025.
Bichette and Guerrero are solely managed by way of the top of the 2025 season, which has introduced continued hypothesis about the opportunity of one or each gamers being moved this winter. A number of the Guerrero hypothesis has died down within the weeks for the reason that commerce deadline, although. USA As we speak’s Bob Nightengale reported after the deadline that the crew nonetheless hoped to signal Guerrero long-term. Bassitt appeared on Chris Rose’s podcast and voiced his perception that although Guerrero has not but signed an extension, he certainly needs to be in Toronto long-term. Now, it seems Bichette’s teammates needn’t do any speaking or speculating on his behalf. He’s publicly making it clear that he hopes to remain in Toronto alongside his longtime buddy, Guerrero, and win a title as a Blue Jay.
“After I had time to consider what I would like, mainly, my final purpose actually is to play with Vladdy (Guerrero Jr.) ceaselessly, to win a championship with him and to try this with this group,” Bichette advised Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi. “I’m one hundred pc dedicated to doing no matter it takes to perform these issues. That’s the place I’m at.”
As Davidi explores at size in a chunk Jays followers, particularly, will wish to learn in its entirety, that units the 2024-25 offseason as some of the pivotal in franchise historical past with regard to participant personnel choices. There’s nothing that claims the Jays can’t let Guerrero and/or Bichette attain free company, check the market, after which re-sign each gamers anyhow — however it’s actually a neater and extra managed course of once they’re not competing with an open market and different potential bidders for the 26-year-old Bichette and 25-year-old Guerrero.
From a payroll perspective, the Jays ought to have the ability to make twin extensions for the pair of former All-Stars work. Jose Berrios and Yariel Rodriguez are the one gamers signed past the 2026 season. Berrios, Rodriguez, the aforementioned Gausman and George Springer are the one 4 Blue Jays on assured contract past the 2025 marketing campaign. Toronto opened the 2024 season with a roughly $225M payroll, at the moment sits at about $217M after its deadline sell-off and solely has about $124.5M in commitments for the 2025 season for the time being, per RosterResource.
That quantity notably doesn’t embrace an arbitration increase for Guerrero — a determine that’ll possible shoot properly past $25M on the heels of his excellent 2024 season. Arb raises for Jordan Romano, Erik Swanson, Genesis Cabrera, Daulton Varsho, Alejandro Kirk, Dillon Tate, Alek Manoah and Ernie Clement might all be within the offing as properly, although some members of that class will likely be non-tendered or traded.
Even when the majority of that class is retained, it’s affordable to suppose that between arb raises and rounding out the roster with league-minimum gamers, the Blue Jays might nonetheless are available round $185M-190M in whole commitments. New contracts for Guerrero and/or Bichette wouldn’t essentially want to return with substantial raises till the 2026 season. That’d go away $35M-40M for the Blue Jays to nonetheless increase their present roster even whereas merely adhering to final 12 months’s payroll ranges.
In fact, nothing says that the payroll can’t and gained’t rise. The Jays are owned by a multi-billion greenback firm — Rogers Communications — in principle giving them room to pursue nearly any participant they need (as we noticed with final offseason’s earnest pursuit of Shohei Ohtani). There’s no agency indication but that they plan to be aggressive bidders for prime free brokers like Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Alex Bregman or Willy Adames, however there’s additionally no motive to suppose they will’t swim within the deepest waters the free agent pool has to supply.
The query dealing with the Jays will likely be one in all how a lot they wish to tie up in long-term allocations. Extending both Guerrero or Bichette would presumably require signing mentioned gamers properly into the 2030s. So would signing Soto, whereas the remaining prime names in the marketplace might all signal by way of someplace within the 2030-32 vary if their markets come collectively as hoped. Lengthy-term offers for homegrown skills like Bichette and Guerrero will solely preserve the established order; it’s clear there are additional reinforcements wanted, so Atkins and president Mark Shapiro — assuming each keep in place after this 12 months’s disappointing marketing campaign — might want to steadiness potential extensions with the necessity to additional fortify a roster that fell woefully shy of expectations in 2024.
Apparent because it appears, it additionally bears emphasizing that Bichette’s pledge solely carries a lot weight. He doesn’t have any no-trade safety below the three-year, $33.6M contract he signed to purchase out his three arbitration seasons. He has no direct say over whether or not he’ll even be in Toronto subsequent 12 months, not to mention for the following six, seven, eight, 9 or 10 years. On the identical time, his assertion to Davidi plainly underscores that he’s not solely open to however hopeful of signing a long-term deal to remain in Canada alongside his longtime teammate and buddy.
Bichette spoke to Davidi about reflecting throughout his present harm absence, pondering again to his A-ball days with Guerrero when the 2 have been fresh-faced 18-year-olds speaking about successful as many championships as doable collectively. He provides that by way of reflection, he’s “realized much more about myself by way of failure,” referencing his 2024 struggles, each when it comes to what he hopes to perform on the sphere and as a frontrunner within the Blue Jays’ clubhouse. (Once more, Jays followers are inspired to learn the interview in full, because it’s rife with candid quotes and earnest self-assessment from Bichette.)
The 2024 season has certainly been an unpleasant one for Bichette. Even earlier than sustaining the calf harm that’s sidelined him for greater than a month (his second calf pressure of the season), he was stumbling by way of the worst season of his skilled profession. In 331 plate appearances, he hit simply .222/.275/.320 with 4 dwelling runs and 5 stolen bases. Bichette’s 19% strikeout charge is definitely decrease than his profession 20.6% mark, however whereas he was nonetheless making frequent contact, the standard of his batted balls took a nosedive. Bichette has career-low marks in exit velocity, barrel charge and hard-hit charge this season. His line-drive charge is the third-lowest of his profession. His ground-ball charge is the third-highest. He hit solely six infield flies in 601 plate appearances in 2023 however popped up 5 occasions on this 12 months’s 331 plate appearances. Bichette’s contact charge on pitches within the strike zone was a career-best 91.7% — however his contact charge on balls off the plate was a career-worst 57.5%.
All of that may complicate any extension talks with Bichette, in fact. With a typical season, he’d have been on monitor to be a free agent heading into his age-28 season — a center infielder with elite offense at a younger-than-typical age free of charge company. Speak of a $250M+ and even $300M contract might have been in play. Such lofty heights in all probability aren’t attainable on the heels of a career-worst 12 months on the plate that’s now seen a number of calf accidents hold him on the bench for 2 to 3 months. Discovering a center floor could possibly be troublesome, although an extension that permits Bichette to extend his incomes energy — whether or not by way of opt-out alternatives or maybe by way of a sequence of vesting choices, a la Carlos Correa in Minnesota — might supply create options to assist bridge the hole.
For now, the purpose will merely be to get again on the sphere in 2024. Bichette advised Davidi that getting again on the sphere, figuring out the harm is behind him and feeling like himself once more will all be a psychological increase heading into the offseason. Sportsnet’s Arden Zwelling tweets that Bichette is slated to start a rehab project with the Jays’ Triple-A affiliate Tuesday, which is able to possible final 4 to 5 video games and embrace time at each shortstop and designated hitter. That would at the least give Bichette two weeks to really feel assured that his calf is again to full energy, however the greater questions — for each him and the group — are looming because the winter approaches.
