Previous to yesterday’s sport, the Blue Jays introduced that they reinstated right-hander Chad Inexperienced from the injured checklist. In a corresponding transfer, fellow right-hander Erik Swanson was optioned to Triple-A Buffalo.
Swanson getting despatched down is one thing that will have been onerous to fathom only a few months in the past. The righty made 57 appearances for the Mariners in 2022 and solely allowed 1.68 earned runs per 9 innings. He struck out 34% of batters confronted that yr and solely gave out walks at a 4.9% clip.
After that large season, the Blue Jays traded outfielder Teoscar Hernández to the Mariners for Swanson and pitching prospect Adam Macko. Swanson largely carried over his wonderful outcomes into 2023, showing in 69 video games with a 2.97 ERA, 28.6% strikeout fee and eight% stroll fee. That included loads of late-game motion, as Swanson earned 29 holds and 4 saves for the Jays final yr, largely serving as the first setup man to nearer Jordan Romano.
The expectation was that Swanson would proceed in that position right here in 2024 however that hasn’t been the case. Swanson and the Jays obtained a scare again in February when the pitcher’s son Toby was hit by a automotive and brought to an area hospital. Fortunately, Toby was ultimately launched however Swanson was away from the membership for some time and handled some forearm tightness when he returned.
He began the season on the injured checklist however missed simply the primary two weeks, getting reinstated in mid-April. Sadly, he hasn’t been in a position to get into a very good groove up to now this season. He’s made 17 appearances, tossing 13 2/3 innings, however has allowed 14 earned runs on the yr. His 6.1% stroll fee is nice however he’s solely punched out 15.2% of batters confronted and has already allowed 5 residence runs, whereas he solely allowed eight all of final yr and simply three the yr prior.
It doesn’t seem as if the harm is creating lingering results, as Swanson’s velocity isn’t considerably totally different. His fastball averaged 93.7 miles per hour final yr together with his splitter at 85.1. These numbers are down this yr however simply barely, to 93.6 and 85.0.
Speculatively talking, maybe he’s tipping his pitches or hitters have discovered another approach to get a learn on him. His chase fee was round 34% in every of the previous two years however is down to only 22.8% this yr. When he has thrown the ball within the zone, hitters made contact round 72% of the time within the earlier two campaigns however that quantity is as much as 84.4% this yr. That mixture of much less chase and extra contact within the zone tracks with the numerous drop in his strikeout fee. Even when gamers have chased, they’re making contact 71.4% of the time, an enormous bounce from final yr’s 55.9% clip. It’s not as if he’s been leaving extra pitches over the plate, as his “meatball” fee at Statcast has truly fallen from final yr’s 7% to five.7% this yr. Nonetheless, opposing hitters are swinging at these meatballs 92.9% of the time, an enormous improve over final yr’s 74.3%.
For no matter purpose, opposing hitters look like seeing the ball properly out of Swanson’s hand, placing out much less and barreling the ball up extra. He had a barrel fee round 6% in every of the previous two years however has greater than doubled that this yr to fifteen.4%. That’s been one piece of a bigger bullpen slide for the Jays, because the reduction corps has gone from a energy to a weak point since final yr. The membership’s bullpen had a 3.68 ERA final yr, placing them within the high ten amongst MLB golf equipment. This yr, their ERA is as much as 4.92, which is healthier than simply the Rangers and Rockies.
That’s not all on Swanson, after all, as pitchers like Romano and Tim Mayza have additionally seen their numbers pattern within the incorrect path, however to not the identical diploma as Swanson’s. With Inexperienced coming off the IL, the Jays might have optioned youthful pitchers like Zach Pop or Nate Pearson however the truth that they opted to present Swanson a breather speaks to how tough his season has gone up to now.
The Jays will undoubtedly be hoping {that a} temporary reset can get Swanson again on monitor, whether or not they can cling across the playoff race or not. The membership is having a little bit of a disappointing season so far, with the bullpen struggles enjoying a task in that. They’re at the moment 25-29, final place within the American League East and 5 video games out of a Wild Card spot.
There’s already been hypothesis that the membership might take into account pivoting to a selloff previous to this summer season’s deadline. Climbing within the standings would take that off the desk however it will likely be hanging over the membership within the months to come back in the event that they keep on the fringes of rivalry.
Swanson got here into this season with 4 years and 96 days of main league service time, placing him 76 days shy of the five-year mark. He added one other 61 days this yr previous to getting optioned, leaving him 15 shy of crossing that mark.
Assuming he comes again in some unspecified time in the future this yr, he’ll don’t have any drawback crossing that threshold and staying on monitor totally free company after 2025. Although if his struggles proceed down within the minors and he doesn’t earn his method again, he might find yourself shy of the road and have his free company delayed by one other yr.
The Jays would certainly love if that’s not a state of affairs they’ve to contemplate. If Swanson can rapidly get again on monitor, he can return to being a key a part of their bullpen for a playoff push. Or if he’s succeeding whereas the membership is faltering, he may very well be marketed to different golf equipment on the deadline with an additional yr of management. However for now, he and the membership should determine a plan for placing this tough patch behind him.
