Rising star 3-year-old Most Needed totes an unblemished 4-for-4 file into the $600,000 Clark Stakes Introduced by Norton Healthcare, the signature race on Churchill Downs’ Black Friday card Nov. 29, and the wager right here is the Sweet Journey colt strikes once more below the Twin Spires.
The Clark, downgraded from a Grade 1 to a Grade 2 for the 2023 renewal, drew a stable group of 10 entrants however not one of the runners from the Breeders’ Cup return on 4 weeks relaxation with championship aspirations that want a lift. A Grade 2 in November simply doesn’t carry the load of a Grade 1 on the subject of Eclipse Awards.
Coach Ken McPeek pointed graded stakes winner #7 Rattle N Roll (5-1 morning-line odds) to the $7 million Longines Breeders’ Cup Basic, however the 5-year-old by Join had completed third within the Grade 2 Lukas Basic Stakes in his return from a one-year hiatus and didn’t draw into the race.
Re-routed to the Clark, Rattle N Roll is eligible to enhance in his second race after the lengthy layoff with 9 weeks of relaxation. He’s 3-for-8 lifetime at Churchill Downs with seven top-three finishes and was superb final 12 months when profitable three straight Grade 3s earlier than arising a half-length brief within the Grade 1 Stephen Foster Stakes (held at Ellis Park) at this 1 1/8-mile distance. I anticipate him to run effectively within the Clark with an opportunity to regain his high type and switch the tables on Lukas Basic winner #6 Hit Present (3-1).
Hit Present, like Most Needed, is a Sweet Journey colt skilled by Brad Cox coming into the Clark on a profitable streak. Hit Present has swept the West Virginia Governor’s Stakes, Lukas Basic, and the Hagyard Fayette Stakes in his final three begins, the latest two on the 1 1/8-mile distance. Hit Present has by no means been higher.
I landed on #5 Most Needed (7-2) as a result of I like what I’ve seen from him and I feel he has one other step to take on the finish of his 3-year-old season, a time when racehorses typically make important jumps. The half-brother to 2021 Breeders’ Cup Grime Mile and 2022 Pegasus World Cup winner Life Is Good debuted in June and gained his first three begins by lower than a size whereas displaying some versatility: prevailing from off the tempo in his debut, urgent the tempo in his second begin, after which setting the tempo in a nostril victory in his stakes debut within the Ellis Park Derby Aug. 11.
Most Needed’s graded stakes debut within the Grade 3 Oklahoma Derby was his greatest race to this point, for my part, as he dueled for the early lead, was headed within the stretch, after which fought gamely to win by a size Sept. 29 at Remington Park.
Jockey Florent Geroux opted to remain on Most Needed for the Clark relatively than journey Hit Present, a colt he’s ridden in every of his 5 races in 2024, in order that tells me he thinks this one has a shiny future. Most Needed has extra tactical pace than the opposite two entrants I discussed in addition to Suburban Stakes winner #3 Crupi (4-1) and that might be a giant increase to his possibilities within the Clark.
My plan is to wager Most Needed to win after which key him on high of the trifecta over Hit Present and Rattle N Roll. I thought-about utilizing potential pacesetter #9 Cooke Creek (6-1) and #4 Piroli (20-1) within the trifecta to boost the payout, the latter popping out of a return to high type at Keeneland Oct. 20, however the high three really feel like are fairly clear standouts, so I plan simplify and keep on with them.
Betting Technique on a $10 Price range
$10 win: #5 Most Needed ($10)
What to say on the betting window: Churchill Downs, Race 11, $10 to win on #5
Wagering Technique on a $30 Price range
$20 win: #5 Most Needed ($20)
What to say on the betting window: Churchill Downs, Race 11, $20 to win on #5
$5 trifecta: 5 with 6,7 with 6,7 ($10)
What to say on the betting window: Churchill Downs, Race 11, $5 trifecta, 5 with 6,7 with 6,7
