My colleague at America’s Finest Racing, Mike Curry, has lengthy regarded 2-year-old filly races as a few of the most tough to handicap, even after these children get a race or two beneath their belts. His reasoning is sound – extra so than colts at this stage, freshman fillies appear to take unpredictable leaps in maturity from begin to begin, and it’s typically tough to pinpoint which of them will flip the swap when confronted with attempting one thing new reminiscent of racing round two turns for the primary time.
That makes this 12 months’s NetJets Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Nov. 1 at Del Mar an particularly intriguing puzzle. There’s no Songbird or Echo Zulu this 12 months, no absolute standout entered within the race. It’s broad open.
Of the 9 fillies entered, solely three have raced at 1 1/16 miles round two turns earlier than – the 1-2 finishers within the Darley Alcibiades Stakes at Keeneland (#3 Immersive and #5 Quickick) and the runner-up within the Oak Leaf Stakes Offered by Oak Tree at Santa Anita Park (Nooni; race winner #7 Non Compliant was withdrawn Tuesday, Oct. 29). The opposite six all have raced at distances of 1 mile or much less, together with two Japan-based fillies who’ll be making their first begins in North America, #6 Otomena Shacho and #9 American Bikini. By way of operating types, the NetJets Juvenile Fillies discipline is principally comprised of press the tempo/stalker varieties, with two fillies – Nooni and American Bikini – that desire to be on the early lead.
The slight morning-line favourite is #10 Scottish Lassie, who blew away the sphere within the one-turn mile Frizette Stakes at Belmont on the Huge A in early October racing a one-turn mile and appeared to have loads left within the tank. Frizette runner-up #2 Snowyte is also within the Juvenile Fillies, and the sphere is rounded out by #1 Vodka With a Twist, final seen giving up the lead late within the FanDuel Racing Del Mar Debutante Stakes in early September, and #4 La Cara, who rallied within the stretch to win the Sept. 14 Pocahontas Stakes at Churchill Downs over 13 opponents.
Among the many U.S.-based horses, Scottish Lassie is definitely probably the most visually spectacular contender primarily based on her Frizette victory, which certainly was a type of “leaps” mentioned above from her first race, a seven-furlong dash on Sept. 1 at Saratoga the place she completed third behind Quickick and Snowyte. Even when she plateaus within the Juvenile Fillies, that needs to be ok to make sure a top-three end.
Quickick may very well be the filly who’s able to take the same transfer ahead, and that’s what I’ll be betting on. The daughter of McKinzie generated buzz when shipped from New York after her Saratoga win to begin within the Alcibiades, and in that race she made a threatening transfer from close to the again of the pack to achieve competition on the high of the stretch and take purpose on Immersive. Quickick stored attempting however couldn’t change leads through the stretch run and ended up 1 ¼ lengths again in second. She’s since posted a powerful four-furlong exercise for Tom Amoss at Churchill Downs and her 10-1 morning-line odds supply nice worth (right here’s hoping they keep in that vary). I’ll be betting Quickick to win and keying this filly first in exacta and trifecta bets, with the hope that I received’t must shout “Change leads!” once more throughout her stretch run at Del Mar.
Along with Scottish Lassie, the opposite fillies I’ll use in my exacta and trifecta bets are Immersive, La Cara, and American Bikini. Immersive is 3-for-3 with two stakes wins, together with the Alcibiades, however I’ll take a stand right here and gamble she is likely to be able to degree off. La Cara could be my second alternative as a win candidate within the Juvenile Fillies as I used to be impressed by her Pocahontas victory in opposition to a full discipline. Her Equibase Pace Determine declined within the one-turn-mile Pocahontas from the quantity earned in a breakout win going seven furlongs at Saratoga one begin earlier, however she was sport within the stretch and sustained her rally nicely by the end line. On this filly’s case, I feel she could also be a late bloomer and can relish racing two turns.
American Bikini is the wild card within the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. She completed second in her debut however then received back-to-back races sprinting on dust in Japan by open lengths and with stable ultimate instances (simply defeating Otomena Shacho within the first of these). Worldwide star jockey Ryan Moore takes the reins and may ship this filly straight out of the gate and to the entrance. I’m not positive if she will maintain on for a gate-to-wire win, however as a daughter of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah she ought to have the stamina to stay in competition late.
My betting technique on a $20 finances is as follows:
$10 win on Quickick
Del Mar, Race 7, $10 win on #5
$1 exacta, Quickick with Immersive, La Cara, American Bikini, and Scottish Lassie ($4)
Del Mar, Race 7, $1 exacta, #5 with #3, #4, #9, and #10
$.50 cent trifecta, Quickick with Immersive, La Cara, American Bikini, and Scottish Lassie ($6)
Del Mar, Race 7, $.50-cent trifecta, #5 with #3, #4, #9, and #10, with #3, #4, #9, and #10
For these with a bigger bankroll, I like to recommend rising the exacta and trifecta bets above to $2 and $1 respectively (totaling $8 and $12), after which making exacta and trifecta bets with the unique base quantities of $1 and $.50 and inserting Quickick second. That will add one other $20 to make the full quantity invested on this race $40.
Good luck, and luxuriate in what needs to be an thrilling and aggressive version of the Juvenile Fillies!
