An 11-horse area has assembled for Saturday night’s $250,000 Iowa Derby at Prairie Meadows. You may assume that with so many horses within the entries, the 1 1/16-mile contest for 3-year-olds is ripe for an upset winner. However that doesn’t seem like the case.
In spite of everything, anticipated favourite #9 Only a Contact (9-5) is a formidable competitor. He’s twice began on the Grade 1 degree, so dropping to the ungraded degree for the Iowa Derby ought to make him mighty robust to defeat.
A son of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify out of 2010 Grade 3 Comely Stakes winner Touching Magnificence, by Tapit, Only a Contact impressed when debuting in a six-furlong maiden particular weight on Jan. 27 at Honest Grounds. After urgent the early tempo in second place, Only a Contact took over and drew away to dominate by 4 ¼ lengths.
This eye-catching victory launched Only a Contact onto the Street to the Kentucky Derby Introduced by Woodford Reserve, the place he competed with aplomb. Within the one-mile, Grade 3 Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct, Only a Contact stalked the tempo whereas racing large and battled gamely to complete second by two lengths. Then within the 1 1/8-mile Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, Only a Contact raced in second place early on, took command within the homestretch, and stayed on to complete second by 1 ½ lengths towards Sierra Leone.
Only a Contact’s Blue Grass efficiency appears to be like even higher looking back. Sierra Leone returned to complete second by a nostril within the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby after which third within the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes Introduced by NYRA Bets, whereas Blue Grass fourth-place finisher Dornoch gained the Belmont Stakes.
Only a Contact didn’t fare fairly as properly within the Kentucky Derby, the place he completed final out of 20. However the calmly raced colt had reputable excuses that day. Throughout the opening quarter-mile, he was bounced round in site visitors and wound up racing in midfield, a lot farther off the tempo than traditional. He additionally discovered himself behind rivals, and he didn’t appear to benefit from the dust kickback introduced on by that place.
The stage seems set for Only a Contact to rebound whereas going through simpler competitors within the Iowa Derby. He’s drawn an out of doors publish, so he shouldn’t have any problem securing an out of doors urgent journey like in his first three begins. And none of his 10 rivals have gained on the stakes degree, so Only a Contact’s runner-up finishes within the Blue Grass and Gotham tower over the Iowa Derby area from a category perspective.
In brief, Only a Contact appears to be like like a possible winner. However will his odds be excessive sufficient to warrant a win wager? Not essentially. He’s 9-5 on the morning line, however there’s good probability he’ll begin at considerably decrease odds, and a $10 win wager may return beneath $20.
In an effort to money a much bigger payoff, we’ll wager the exacta, which requires deciding on the highest two finishers within the right order. And the horse we’ll favor for second place is #8 Dimatic (5-1), the third selection on the morning line. A chilly Only a Contact/Dimatic exacta ought to yield a stable return on funding.
Dimatic didn’t mild up the world in two begins on the Street to the Kentucky Derby, ending fifth within the Insurgent Stakes and tenth within the Arkansas Derby. However he’s improved meaningfully in his final two begins for Corridor of Fame coach Steve Asmussen. After closing from midfield to win a $100,000 allowance non-obligatory claimer racing 1 1/16 miles at Oaklawn Park, Dimatic tackled the 1 1/16-mile Texas Derby at Lone Star Park and launched a pleasant rally to guide in midstretch. He in the end completed second, however he was crushed just one size by Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby third-place finisher E J Gained the Cup whereas pulling six lengths away from Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Membership Stakes runner-up Actual Males Violin.
The actual fact Dimatic held his personal towards confirmed graded stakes performers like E J Gained the Cup and Actual Males Violin suggests he’s a great match for the Iowa Derby. We want him for runner-up honors over morning-line second selection #7 Subsequent Degree (7-2), who exits a third-place end within the Grade 3 Matt Winn Stakes. Subsequent Degree is a succesful runner on his finest day, however he completed behind Dimatic when eighth within the Insurgent and should have much less upside than his bettering rival.
Wagering Technique on a $10 Funds
$10 Exacta: 9 with 8
What to say on the betting window: Prairie Meadows, eighth race, $10 exacta 9 with 8
Wagering Technique on a $25 Funds
$25 Exacta: 9 with 8
What to say on the betting window: Prairie Meadows, eighth race, $25 exacta 9 with 8
Good luck, and benefit from the race!
