Thanksgiving Thursday kicks off what’s historically an awesome 4 days of horse racing for followers and gamblers below the Twin Spires at Churchill Downs, because the historic Louisville observe wraps up its fall meet after which takes a five-month break earlier than re-opening for its spring meet and ramping up pleasure for the 151st Kentucky Derby Offered by Woodford Reserve.
Churchill’s vacation card is anchored by two graded stakes, and the primary of these, the $400,000, Grade 3 Falls Metropolis Stakes, brings collectively a aggressive discipline of eight fillies and mares ages 3 and older to sq. off going 1 1/8 miles round two activates grime. One of many probables, #1 Neon Icon (15-1 morning-line odds), can be entered within the Grade 3 Mrs. Revere Stakes held on turf throughout Churchill’s Black Friday Nov. 29 card.
Two fillies come into the Falls Metropolis off of graded stakes wins: #2 Tarifa (9-5), a Godolphin homebred educated by Brad Cox who received the Grade 2 Mom Goose Stakes by a head Oct. 26 at Belmont on the Huge A (Aqueduct), and #4 Musical Mischief (2-1), an Into Mischief filly educated by Michael McCarthy who posted an upset win at 16.82-1 odds within the Grade 2 Fasig-Tipton Locust Grove Stakes Sept. 14 at Churchill. I hope that the blue-blood connections of Tarifa nudge her into post-time favoritism within the Falls Metropolis, as a result of I believe Musical Mischief is a transparent standout on this race. She’ll be the filly I assemble my wagers round in hopes of increasing my cash clip Thanksgiving afternoon together with my waistline.
Over the previous yr, Musical Mischief has been in wonderful type however she’s kicked it up a notch because the summer season, successful a 1 1/16-mile allowance-optional claiming race on a muddy observe June 30 at Churchill, ending fourth by a size within the one-mile Groupie Doll Stakes at Ellis Park in August after getting bumped in the beginning, after which unleashing a career-best effort when romping by 3 ¼ lengths within the 1 1/16-mile Locust Grove. She’s 3-for-5 total at Churchill, the three wins coming in her most up-to-date begins on the grime primary observe.
Musical Mischief was thought of for the Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff at Del Mar, and I had her pegged as a viable longshot contender within the race to make use of with eventual winner and possible Horse of the Yr Thorpedo Anna in unique wagers. As an alternative, she’s coming again on this spot and confirmed she’s prepared for it by posting a bullet four-furlong exercise in :47.60 Nov. 21 at Churchill. She has the right stalk-and-pounce operating model for Thursday’s Falls Metropolis, which ought to allow jockey Edgar Morales to take a seat off possible pacesetter #3 Peignoir (10-1) and urgent Tarifa and #6 Liked (3-1) for a mile or so. Morales has ridden this filly in every of her previous three begins and may know simply when to press the button and ask for her greatest early within the homestretch.
Tarifa is actually able to successful and I’ll use her in my exacta and trifecta bets. She’s solely had one poor race in 9 profession begins, a ninth-place effort within the Longines Kentucky Oaks behind Thorpedo Anna in Might. That got here on a sloppy observe at Churchill, and the Thanksgiving forecast requires rain in Louisville. However, Tarifa has additionally received a graded stakes within the slop. I simply assume she may be a bounce candidate within the Falls Metropolis as she was all out to fend off favored Gun Music within the Mom Goose after a sustained stretch battle. That was held at 1 1/8 miles round two turns, and regardless of her win, I really feel that Tarifa is greatest suited to barely shorter races.
Liked’s morning-line odds may tick up come submit time. One other Godolphin runner, she was no match for Musical Mischief within the Locust Grove, ending 6 ½ lengths behind in sixth, and after that she was 9 lengths in arrears to Idiomatic within the Grade 1 Juddmonte Spinster Stakes. Previous to these races, nonetheless, she received a 1 1/16-mile stakes at Horseshoe Indianapolis and earned a velocity determine that’s aggressive with the highest contenders within the Falls Metropolis. Trying again up to now performances, her 2023 type (when she received three route races in a row, every by open lengths) shapes up very effectively with this group if she will be able to cycle again to it.
Lastly, if Neon Icon stays within the Falls Metropolis, she’s worthy of utilizing in unique bets. The three-year-old turned heads at Churchill again in Might with a 5 ½-length romp in a 1 ¼-mile allowance-optional claimer that was washed off of the turf, after which made three consecutive begins in stakes races over the following three months with out success. She returned to the allowance ranks in October at Keeneland and received a 1 1/8-mile race by a rallying size, and has since breezed at Churchill twice, together with a four-furlong exercise Nov. 16 that ranked second of 70 on the distance. Her velocity figures are about 15 factors under these earned by the highest Falls Metropolis contenders, however I believe there’s some untapped potential right here and the mile and an eighth needs to be proper in her wheelhouse.
My wagering technique for the 2024 Falls Metropolis Stakes is as follows:
$20 funds:
$14 win on Musical Mischief
What to say on the betting window: Churchill Downs, Race 9, $12 win on #4
$1 trifecta, key Musical Mischief over Neon Icon, Tarifa, and Liked ($6)
What to say on the betting window: Churchill Downs, Race 9, $1 trifecta, #4 over #s 1,2,6, 1,2,6
$30 funds:
$18 win on #4 Musical Mischief
What to say on the betting window: Churchill Downs, Race 9, $18 win on #4
$2 exacta, key Musical Mischief over Neon Icon, Tarifa, and Liked ($6)
What to say on the betting window: Churchill Downs, Race 9, $2 exacta, key #4 over #s 1,2,6
$1 trifecta, key Musical Mischief over Neon Icon, Tarifa, and Liked ($6)
What to say on the betting window: Churchill Downs, Race 9, $1 trifecta, #4 over #s 1,2,6, 1,2,6
