There’s an opportunity a short-priced horse will win Friday’s $600,000, Grade 1 Darley Alcibiades Stakes on opening day of the Keeneland fall meet. However a longshot winner is likely to be virtually as possible an end result.
Eight 2-year-old fillies have been entered the Alcibiades, a 1 1/16-mile dust race that serves as a “Win and You’re In” qualifier for the Nov. 1 NetJets Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and in addition as a cease on the 2024-’25 Street to the Longines Kentucky Oaks.
There are some distinguished names within the entries, together with the highest three finishers from the Grade 1 Spinaway Stakes Aug. 31 at Saratoga Race Course.
However in response to Beyer Velocity Figures and Brisnet Velocity scores, not one of the Alcibiades entrants is especially quick. And while you see a Grade 1 race through which the favorites aren’t particularly quick, then longshots usually gained’t want a lot enchancment — if any — to vie for victory.
That’s why we’re pondering outdoors the field with #1 Continuity (20-1) as our best choice to win the Alcibiades. True, she’s the longest shot within the discipline. However her previous performances counsel she has the potential to shock whereas stepping up at school.
Continuity debuted July 13 in a $50,000 maiden optional-claiming race sprinting three-quarters of a mile at Ellis Park. After dueling for the lead, she fought gamely down the homestretch to prevail by half a size within the gradual time of 1:13.42.
After all, a win is a win, and the excellent news is Continuity improved considerably in her second begin on Aug. 16. In a $50,000 allowance optional-claiming race on the similar three-quarters of a mile distance, this time at Colonial Downs, she settled a pair lengths off the early tempo, then completed quick to grab command and dominate by seven lengths in 1:09.74. That effort earned a 93 Brisnet Velocity score (the best quantity within the Alcibiades discipline) and a 79 Beyer Velocity Determine, not far off the best quantity within the Alcibiades.
Stretching out over 1 1/16 miles is a query mark, however Continuity’s pedigree suggests she’ll deal with the problem. Her sire, Speightster, gained the one-mile, Grade 3 Dwyer Stakes. Her dam, Shady Reflection, beforehand produced Cary Avenue, winner of the 1 3/4-mile, Grade 2 Las Vegas Marathon Stakes and 1 1/2-mile, Grade 3 Greenwood Cup Stakes.
The tactical velocity Continuity has proven in sprints ought to serve her properly whereas stretching out in distance for the Alcibiades, permitting her to set or press the tempo from her inside publish place. From there, Continuity can kick on down the homestretch and maintain off any late runners to spring a double-digit upset.
Since Continuity is a longshot, a easy win guess will yield a superb return on funding if she visits the winner’s circle. However we additionally counsel taking part in her for first and second place in an exacta, giving us an opportunity to money if Continuity runs properly however settles for second place.
The opposite filly we’ll play within the exacta is #8 Immersive (2-1), the undefeated favourite on the morning line. A homebred racing for the highly effective Godolphin secure, Immersive is conditioned by two-time Eclipse Award-winning coach Brad Cox, who has gained two of the final 5 editions of the Alcibiades.
Immersive began her profession in a maiden particular weight sprinting three-quarters of a mile on July 21 at Saratoga. She settled two lengths off the early tempo, then charged residence to win by the identical margin in 1:12.60.
It wasn’t a very quick or flashy efficiency, so Immersive was a 12.70-1 longshot when she stepped up at school for the Aug. 31 Spinaway racing seven-eighths of a mile at Saratoga. Regardless of her lengthy odds, Immersive closed from fifth place on a muddy observe to prevail by 1 1/4 lengths in 1:25.31, incomes a 90 Brisnet Velocity score and an 84 Beyer Velocity Determine.
Immersive was aided within the Spinaway by a decelerating tempo — the early leaders have been slowing down considerably within the stretch — however she defeated all comers in comfy vogue and has upside for additional enchancment within the Alcibiades. As a daughter of Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist out of a mare by Grade 1 Preakness Stakes winner Bernardini, Immersive is bred to relish racing 1 1/16 miles.
Relying on how a lot you wish to spend betting the Alcibiades, listed here are two methods to contemplate:
Wagering Technique on a $10 Finances
$6 to win on #1 Continuity
What to say on the betting window: Keeneland, ninth race, $6 to win on 1
$3 exacta: 8 with 1
What to say on the betting window: Keeneland, ninth race, $3 exacta 8 with 1
$1 exacta: 1 with 8
What to say on the betting window: Keeneland, ninth race, $3 exacta 1 with 8
Wagering Technique on a $30 Finances
$15 to win on #1 Continuity
What to say on the betting window: Keeneland, ninth race, $15 to win on 1
$10 exacta: 8 with 1
What to say on the betting window: Keeneland, ninth race, $10 exacta 8 with 1
$5 exacta: 1 with 8
What to say on the betting window: Keeneland, ninth race, $5 exacta 1 with 8
Good luck and benefit from the race!
