| 2:00 |
: Hey everybody, welcome to the chat, let’s get began
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| 2:01 |
: how a lot of a talent do you suppose is clutch hitting
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| 2:02 |
: Fairly near in no way. I’m not denying that you may have a clutch or unclutch at bat however let’s put it this fashion
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| 2:02 |
: if clutch means performing higher in massive spots…. David Ortiz has a 0.02 “clutch” int he playoffs
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| 2:02 |
: he hit nearly as effectively in excessive leverage conditions as in low
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| 2:02 |
: He had a 140 common season wRC+ and 144 playoff wRC+
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| 2:02 |
: And that’s, by in style opinion, probably the most clutch hitter of the twenty first century
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| 2:02 |
: so everybody else is LESS clutch??
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| 2:03 |
: What’s an affordable expectation for Heliot Ramos and Tyler Fitzgerald going ahead? 3 WAR starters?
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| 2:03 |
: I believe that will be a fully unreasonable expectation for Fitzgerald
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| 2:04 |
: I don’t actually purchase his defensive worth being excessive sufficient to hold that, and I believe he’s in all probability nearly a mean hitter, and that this can be his greatest yr by a mile
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| 2:04 |
: clearly even the Giants don’t consider it, they’re having him bunt in additional innings
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| 2:05 |
: Ramos, I believe I’m in as a 2-3 WAR man, his offensive efficiency seems loads nearer to the underlying stuff and I’m extra prepared to shade upwards from projections b/c of his prospect pedigree
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| 2:05 |
: What can be a extra hitter-friendly ballpark: a straight wall that’s 350 on the corners (triangle formed park), or a parabolic wall that’s 300 on the corners however 400 in heart?
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| 2:06 |
: this can be a nice query. Off the highest of my head the 350 one can be b/c the ability alleys and heart have a ton of batted balls within the 350-400 vary, however this feels like a enjoyable query to take a look at in additional depth later
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| 2:06 |
: Which considered one of Jacob Misirowski and Craig Yoho are becoming a member of my pen for a playoff run? Or each?
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| 2:06 |
: Yeah I believe each truly
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| 2:06 |
: That is random however questioning what you suppose: Innings eaters are type of like quantity scorers. Groups are transferring away from them as a result of their worth comes from bulk, their skillsets are typically context dependent and better variance, they usually’re often extra environment friendly when requested to do much less (ex. air it out off the bench, as a max effort 5 & dive man). Does this make any sense?
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| 2:07 |
: Yeah completely is sensible to me. The logical extension there may be that innings eaters with above common high quality mirror the blokes who acquired underrated by basketball analytics when PER was all the craze
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| 2:07 |
: Worse NL West harm information (and why) — Ketel Marte, Tyler Glasnow, or Ha-Seong Kim?
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| 2:08 |
: Marte, for me. I believe that he and Glasnow each have arguments as the very best participant of the group, not that Kim is unhealthy. After which the DBacks really feel like they’ve much less behind him, whereas the Dodgers can do their regular use a ton of pitchders you haven’t heard of who look nice after which blow out their elbows
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| 2:08 |
: anthony volpe: totally hopeless? zero redeeming qualities on the plate
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| 2:08 |
: Yeah I believe he ought to in all probability simply retire
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| 2:09 |
: He has a depressing 104 wRC+ because the All Star break, that wouldn’t even play in little league
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| 2:10 |
: I believe Volpe is simply going to be a protection first man who finally ends up with roughly common offense in a method that makes Yankees followers burn him in effigy
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| 2:10 |
: gonna be a good time for us non-Yankee followers
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| 2:10 |
: Once we say somebody has a .400 wOBA within the month of july, how are the run expectancy weights calculated? Is it at all times utilizing the earlier 162 video games or simply the information from that month?
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| 2:10 |
: information from that yr
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| 2:10 |
: all of our wOBA is completed on a per-year foundation
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| 2:11 |
: When you’re going to stroll Juan Soto why not additionally stroll Aaron Decide? Bases loaded one out in opposition to any yankee not Soto or Decide must be a greater expectancy than two on one out for Decide
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| 2:11 |
: mmmmm… I believe the difficulty right here is that in the event you take Sizemore at his phrase and have a look at this in probably the most optimistic doable life, it’s not about run expectancy however concerning the odds of a number of runs scoring
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| 2:11 |
: And if that’s what you’re optimizing for, you’ll be able to’t put a man on third with lower than two outs
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| 2:12 |
: Hello Ben – a bit off subject however have you ever deliberate any ski journeys for the upcoming season?
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| 2:12 |
: It relies on what you imply by “deliberate”
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| 2:13 |
: Particular journeys, not but. However we’ve arrange a number of flight trackers and such, planning on our annual Alta/Snowbird journey, some Tahoe journeys, and possibly a Colorado double dip the place we fly into one and drive to a different
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| 2:13 |
: When WAR totals are shut sufficient that they’re roughly the identical, what do you want to make use of as a tiebreaker?
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| 2:13 |
: Relies upon what I’m attempting to decide on
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| 2:14 |
: however typically talking if I’m attempting to find out who IS higher, not who has performed higher, I focus extra on the statistics I contemplate extra secure/predictive
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| 2:14 |
: I want to defend Masataka Yoshida. He presently has an OPS of .813 which might be sixteenth within the AL if he had sufficient PA’s to qualify and has been carrying the offense since coming back from his harm.
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| 2:15 |
: I might LIKE Yoshida to be a helpful contributor, I actually take pleasure in his complete recreation
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| 2:16 |
: the issue is that Rafaela is a big minus as an infielder and large plus as an outfielder, so taking part in him at quick to squeeze in Yoshida’s bat at DH (by placing Abreu within the area) simply doesn’t make sense
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| 2:16 |
: I imply, I could possibly be flawed and Abreu could possibly be the weak hyperlink right here
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| 2:17 |
: However I don’t htink it’s Duran or Rafaela, and it’s in all probability not Tyler O’Neill?
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| 2:17 |
: How do you devour baseball throughout the season? A number of screens to look at a number of video games? Concentrate on a single recreation/evening? how does Ben determine what he likes and doesn’t like in any given week!
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| 2:17 |
: Oh it’s very arbitrary
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| 2:17 |
: I’m a single recreation single display man, however I do leap round between video games fairly a bit
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| 2:17 |
: If I’m watching a non-competitive recreation and tehre’s nothing clearly grabbing my consideration, I’ll typically swap
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| 2:18 |
: Do totally different websites have totally different win chance charts? ESPN’s appears off to me once I’m watching their broadcasts they usually show win chance on display.
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| 2:18 |
: Yeah. What historic set of video games you examine to is a lot of the distinction, I believe
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| 2:18 |
: would you consider Jack Suwinski is 4-for-45 in his newest AAA stint?
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| 2:19 |
: I might b/c he’s on my Ottoneu workforce (look, I ought to minimize him, I do know) and I see his traces from time to time
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| 2:19 |
: my gooooodness
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| 2:19 |
: Corbin Carroll! All the best way again??
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| 2:19 |
: Let’s simply say ‘sure’
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| 2:19 |
: b/c I’d be splitting hairs about something between, say, 95% and 100%
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| 2:20 |
: It’s wild how he was simply actually unhealthy for a very long time
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| 2:20 |
: after which bam, simply again
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| 2:20 |
: it’s exhausting to determine what gamers are going to do!
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| 2:21 |
: Is aid pitcher efficiency extra variable year-to-year than starter efficiency simply because relievers pitch fewer innings (=smaller pattern dimension)? Or is reliever efficiency extra variable year-to-year than starter efficiency as a result of relievers are worse pitchers than starters, and/or airing it out greater than starters?
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| 2:21 |
: Suppose the Mariners transfer considered one of their younger pitchers for a hitter or two this offseason? Miller and Woo gotta be at their peaks, and Logan Gilbert workforce management is beginning to dwindle.
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| 2:21 |
: Look, by no means say by no means, however my view has constantly been that the Mariners worth their pitching so extremely that nobody is more likely to meet their asking worth
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| 2:22 |
: Am I kaput? What’s my outlook for subsequent yr?
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| 2:22 |
: Okay, wonderful
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| 2:23 |
: splits are at all times type of a foolish strategy to say if gamers are good, b/c small samples and all, however carroll is slugging .611 because the All Star break
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| 2:23 |
: in fact, Tyler Fitzgerald is slugging .748 because the break
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| 2:23 |
: What’s your stage of confidence in Spencer Torkelson going ahead? Would like to see him be on the heart of the youth motion in Detroit
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| 2:24 |
: it’s not zero…. so like, 1%?
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| 2:24 |
: I believe it’s actually sensible of them to convey him again up and see what they’ve
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| 2:24 |
: nevertheless it’s not even like he hit effectively within the minors
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| 2:25 |
: I believe that at this level, you must face details right here. There’s a fairly good likelihood that Torkelson simply doesn’t have the abilities to constantly hit main league pitching at a excessive stage
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| 2:25 |
: ESPN has Clase on the high of their AL Cy Younger tracker. Did they do that to make me upset?
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| 2:25 |
: I don’t even have any feedback right here, that’s wild
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| 2:25 |
: truly I lied, I do have one factor to say: use our Cy Younger tracker
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| 2:26 |
: not solely does it observe what’s occurred now, it makes use of our projections to indicate how the race tasks to take a look at yr’s finish
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| 2:26 |
: and uh…. Skubal/Sale by a mile
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| 2:26 |
: Who’s your favourite nationwide television play-by-play man? I believe mine is Boog Sciambi
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| 2:26 |
: Making me decide a favourite is so merciless
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| 2:26 |
: oh nationwide, I used to be considering my favourite of the broadcasters
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| 2:26 |
: yeah Boog is nice, big fan
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| 2:27 |
: Joe Davis is great. Truthfully I believe there are a ton of excellent PBP guys doing it proper now
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| 2:27 |
: It’s loopy to me that completely legit MVP seasons like Bryant in 2016 and even Altuve are simply going to be left within the mud by about 3 folks within the AL this yr
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| 2:27 |
: yeah each Witt and Decide are simply going bananas a lot that Soto is barely within the race
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| 2:27 |
: and he’s hitting .300/.432/.601 lol
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| 2:28 |
: What if I advised you that Bryce Harper has 5 seasons (together with 2015) on Aaron Decide and leads him by…. .1. Not 1! .1! (They’re each about to hit 50)
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| 2:28 |
: I’d consider you b/c I checked out so many foolish Decide stats once I was doing the commerce worth sequence
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| 2:28 |
: he’s simply outrageous
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| 2:28 |
: What does Winn must do within the final month to get within the convo for ROY?
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| 2:29 |
: kidnap Jackson Merrill and Paul Skenes and entice them to launch movies declaring their retirement
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| 2:29 |
: Do you suppose the Orioles see one thing fixable in Trevor Rogers? On deadline day the deal was a head-scratcher… and since then it solely seems worse.
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| 2:29 |
: I believe that they undoubtedly do
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| 2:29 |
: he’s been omg cowl your eyes terrible as an O, no argument there
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| 2:30 |
: I’m circling round writing concerning the adjustments he’s made since going to Baltimore, nevertheless it’s powerful when he’s simply getting so crushed
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| 2:30 |
: Ideas on Mendoza calling on a scorching Jeff McNeil to sac bunt with two on and no out within the ninth?
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| 2:30 |
: Out of Hamilton, Rafaela, Abreu, or Wong, what number of grow to be long-term starters for Boston?
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| 2:30 |
: I really feel prefer it’s round 2.5
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| 2:31 |
: I believe Rafaela is the very best of the bunch by an honest bit, at the very least when it comes to chance of ending up as a daily
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| 2:31 |
: Abreu might be gonna be a platoon man except he hits the highest a part of his distribution of outcomes, however Rafaela’s protection performs each methods
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| 2:31 |
: At this level, for the sake of 2025 and past, shouldn’t the Playing cards be giving Jordan Walker each likelihood to succeed now?? I don’t get it.
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| 2:32 |
: I believe so, sure
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| 2:32 |
: They’re taking part in just like the playoffs are nonetheless effectively inside attain, however like…. it’s getting late
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| 2:32 |
: Guardians was once the straightforward reply to “who’s going to win the AL central?”, however with them taking part in .500 ball because the starting of June and the Twins and the Royals making noise it’s a lot much less clear. Who ya acquired?
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| 2:33 |
: Gimme the Twins, however to be trustworthy, I believe it’s shut sufficient between the three that I’m simply selecting the group with the best energy of schedule
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| 2:33 |
: This must be some kind of file for the worst line ever for a pitcher that acquired credit score for the win, (3.1/9/6/6/4/1). Cooper Criswell within the 12-10 Purple Sox win on Friday evening which undoubtedly helps the idea that wins are usually not an effective way to evaluate a pitcher’s efficiency.
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| 2:33 |
: That’s….. wow
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| 2:33 |
: Anywhere I can go to see which pitchers are best to run on?
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| 2:34 |
: Corbin Burnes by a hilarious margin
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| 2:35 |
: It seems like Chris Sale goes to lose his place as the very best pitcher to by no means win a Cy Younger. It’s nice to see that his perseverance by accidents that would have damaged him has been rewarded.
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| 2:35 |
: I at all times overlook that Sale has by no means received a Cy as a result of he was so dominant at his peak
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| 2:35 |
: he was capable of minimize by the distractions and snip out the competitors this yr, although
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| 2:35 |
: Do you consider the precise unfold in workforce protection is nearer to what DRS spits out (+85 to -79 in 2023) or what FRV comes up with (+44 to -47 in 2023) ??
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| 2:36 |
: Oh man, I truly don’t have a powerful reply for you right here
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| 2:36 |
: FRV mirrors what I believe, however i’ve not dug into the information to get a powerful view of why the 2 are coming to such totally different conclusions
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| 2:36 |
: Actually loved Baumann’s article on Jacob Younger. The place do you suppose he matches into the 2025/2026 Nats? Stick him between Crews and Wooden or 4th Outfield PR/Defensive Substitute? Someplace within the center pending FA over the winter?
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| 2:37 |
: I believe it relies on how Crews develops as a defender
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| 2:37 |
: If he finally ends up being above common in heart, I believe you must play him there
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| 2:37 |
: b/c that simply opens up the power to play a extra pure bat within the nook
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| 2:38 |
: Legit 2B starter on a contending workforce or only a first rate participant on a nasty workforce? Looks as if if he had come up final yr as a 23 yr outdated and was placing up this season we’d be speaking extension, however because the Nats rushed him it appears like he’s been round for perpetually.
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| 2:38 |
: I believe he’s proper on that borderline. I’ve him pegged round league common
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| 2:39 |
: so like, a contender COULD begin that type of man, however they wouldn’t be tremendous pleased with it
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| 2:39 |
: Exterior of a number of gamers getting dehydrated within the Sacramento son what wacky outcomes can we count on from a significant league workforce taking part in in a PCL stadium for a full season
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| 2:39 |
: a swarm of children on a grassy berm chase an Aaron Decide milestone residence run ball and inadvertently push Zack Hample onto the sector
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| 2:40 |
: what’s your prediction for the guardians yankees sequence
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| 2:40 |
: Anthony Volpe will key a Yankees sequence victory, Yankees followers will name for him to get replaced by Derek Jeter
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| 2:40 |
: Why isn’t each weekend participant’s weekend? Why does MLB care what the bats and spikes of gamers appear to be?
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| 2:40 |
: I believe b/c it’d look slightly bizarre if guys have been utilizing the pencil bat each week
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| 2:41 |
: however yeah, to some extent they already don’t, you recognize?
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| 2:41 |
: you’ll be able to nearly put on no matter cleats you need
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| 2:41 |
: Very a lot take pleasure in your MLB baseball protection, however any fast OOTP league updates for us?
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| 2:41 |
: I’m not taking part in this yr
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| 2:41 |
: I’ll be again subsequent yr however I used to be simply spending an excessive amount of time on it
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| 2:43 |
: Trying on the cy younger predictor, how do you interpret cyp or fip-cyp. If skubal has 120 fip-cyp and ragans has 91, does that translate into some type of x% likelihood skubal wins the cy. Extra factors is healthier, however how a lot better
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| 2:43 |
: right here’s a snippet from tango’s weblog on the system that does a historic back-check on it
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| 2:43 |
: Each single Cy Younger winner completed 1st or 2nd in Cy Younger factors, since 2006, with out exception. None. And even those that completed 2nd have been inside hanging distance (4 factors) of 1st place. So the rule is easy sufficient: in the event you lead the league in Cy Younger factors, or are inside 4 factors of the chief, you’re the solely candidates to win the Cy Younger. That is true for the 30 awards from 2006-2020. 30 for 30.
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| 2:43 |
: I wouldn’t name it that good, and notably on the projecdted facet, b/c the projections have tons of vraiance
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| 2:43 |
: however a 30 level lead is mainly 100%
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| 2:44 |
: Ohtani has a practical shot at being the primary ever member of the 50/50 membership…
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| 2:44 |
: The man is simply actually exceptional
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| 2:44 |
: my confidence that he’d be a perennial MVP candidate if he by no means pitched once more has skyrocketed this yr
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| 2:45 |
: The place is hyperlink to the pre-season the place y’all ran odds for each workforce in the event that they misplaced their 1,2,3,4,5 greatest gamers? Searched however couldn’t discover it. And subsequent yr, please go away the Braves out of the train and the voodoo has been very unkind this season…
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| 2:45 |
: it’s actually wild how the Braves have been hit by harm
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| 2:45 |
: subsequent yr we will certainly not single out one workforce b/c jeeeeez
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| 2:45 |
: Riley out 6-8 weeks. Has anybody ever misplaced the quantity of expertise in a single season to harm that the bravos have this yr.
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| 2:45 |
: Nothing involves thoughts
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| 2:45 |
: it’s been wild
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| 2:46 |
: I like the Dodgers. I’m carrying Dodgers underwear as we converse. However is it truthful at this level to ask if the vaunted participant growth machine can also be breaking pitchers? I do know plenty of pitchers get harm, in each group, however we’re at a degree the place if it have been a special workforce — one with a worse observe file at participant growth, for instance — that we’d be asking that query. Ideas?
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| 2:47 |
: I believe it’s a really legitimate query to ask. I don’t have a very good reply for you, and I dn’t actually wish to speculate on such a consequential query
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| 2:47 |
: Garcia Jr. is fifth in WAR for 2nd base this season. You’re not shopping for it?
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| 2:48 |
: I’m not shopping for his 2020-2023 line both (0.4 wins BELOW alternative)
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| 2:48 |
: Do you suppose that he truly meant that the wall can be 350 toes away from the plate all over the place? As a result of a straight wall making a triangle formed park can be considerably shorter to CF, wouldn’t it?
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| 2:48 |
: yeah I’m picturing 350 all over the place
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| 2:49 |
: an precise triangle park, agreed, one thing about hypotenuse math
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| 2:49 |
: Patrick Bailey is a good defensive backstop in keeping with Statcast and different metrics, however he has slumping very exhausting. He additionally had a hunch later final yr as a full time catcher. Is he a full time catcher sooner or later if he retains on slumping on the finish of the season? Is that this only a fluke and hoping he is ready to rebound after one other season within the books?
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| 2:50 |
: If I have been the Giants, I’d be very centered on determining whether or not Bailey is bodily drained, mentally drained, whether or not it’s a fluke, wahtever
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| 2:51 |
: His bat velocity hasn’t modified, which doesn’t essentially inform us something. It’s value noting that he has a .151 BABIP because the break, so like, that in all probability received’t maintain taking place
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| 2:51 |
: however he’s alos not hitting the ball exhausting, and never strolling
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| 2:52 |
: I’ll point out my expertise with the ABS system final Friday at Worcester. There have been 4 challenges. 3 by hitters, 1 overturned, and 1 by a pitcher which was overturned. It was fast and environment friendly and whereas I would like all pitches referred to as by ABS it was a optimistic expertise.
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| 2:52 |
: I nonetheless haven’t seen a recreation with ABS challenges however I’d wish to
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| 2:52 |
: Who performs third for the braves tomorrow?
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| 2:53 |
: we now have luke williams as our guess, Zack Brief makes some sense too
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| 2:53 |
: Is there one thing particular that’s inflicting a lot of the O’s high rookies to battle so badly of their preliminary publicity to the bigs, or simply common proof that baseball is tough? I do know we’re speaking SSS, however watching Cowser, Holliday, and now Mayo all look helpless for his or her first few weeks has been irritating.
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| 2:53 |
: I believe simply baseball is tough
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| 2:53 |
: Adley regarded like he belonged straight away, for instance
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| 2:54 |
: alright, I’ve to move out a bit early at present, thanks for chatting with me although, and have an important week. I’ll be again on the identical time subsequent week
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Ben is a author at FanGraphs. He may be discovered on Twitter @_Ben_Clemens.
