| 2:01 |
: Hey all people, welcome to the chat
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| 2:01 |
: Let’s simply dive proper in
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| 2:02 |
: What main change to baseball may have taken place 50 years from now that we aren’t even speaking about as a chance proper now (e.g. robo umps, and so forth)?
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| 2:02 |
: Variety of fielders, possibly? Assuming there’s nonetheless baseball, in fact
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| 2:02 |
: Who would you somewhat wager on panning out? A prospect who must decrease his Ok charge by 5-10% or a prospect who must decrease his GB charge by 5-10%?
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| 2:03 |
: It will depend on different components. If we’re speaking a prospect removed from the majors, like A ball, I’d undoubtedly desire the man who hits too many grounders. Research after research exhibits that hitters who’re hanging out a ton within the low minors simply can not play on the main league degree basically
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| 2:03 |
: The nearer you get to the majors, the extra I’m within the one with the upper strikeout charge. However actually, it’s a type of questions the place ‘all else being equal’ will depend on what degree all else is equal at
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| 2:03 |
: If London got here to MLB and mentioned “Now we have an possession group able to pay billions for an enlargement workforce AND town is keen to spring for for a brand new stadium,” would the league go for it?
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| 2:03 |
: surprisingly, I don’t suppose so
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| 2:04 |
: I simply suppose the journey can be too onerous
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| 2:05 |
: They clearly perceive how robust it’s the approach they schedule off days and such round journey and ensure to solely play brief sequence. However I simply can’t think about a 6-hour minimal flight for each sequence may very well be labored into the schedule with out extra groups in Europe forming one other division of some kind
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| 2:05 |
: So for me, it’s far more about promoting the sport to promote TV broadcasts than about really placing a workforce there completely
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| 2:05 |
: Appears protected to imagine the Phillies are a playoff workforce this 12 months. What outfield are they rolling out for his or her first playoff sport vs a proper handed pitcher?
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| 2:06 |
: I assume I’m assuming everybody’s wholesome. So Marsh, Rojas, Dahl
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| 2:07 |
: I can not think about Castellanos within the discipline given how he’s taking part in
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| 2:07 |
: I do know that they’re speaking about taking part in Sosa within the outfield too at instances, so possibly you’ll be able to have him over Dahl or Rojas?
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| 2:08 |
: What do you suppose is inflicting the Braves’ YOY dwelling run decline? Their barrel charge/exhausting hit continues to be glorious however they’re solely 14th in HR to FB. Does a few of this degree out or is there one thing systemic?
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| 2:08 |
: I feel a few of it’s gonna degree out, although a few of it’s that they had been unsustainably sizzling final 12 months
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| 2:08 |
: additionally it doesn’t assist that Acuna is out for the 12 months
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| 2:08 |
: Have you ever seen information about how heavy-sellers carry out after the deadline in comparison with earlier than? I feel we overstate the influence a couple of subtractions will make over two months of play. Anecdotally I can consider a number of groups who offered however performed higher afterwards – as a result of regression and variance have an even bigger influence than particular person gamers.
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| 2:09 |
: So, this isn’t fairly the identical factor:
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| 2:09 |
: However I seemed into how groups who’re out of the playoff race carry out, and so they carry out worse than you’d anticipate primarily based on a Depth Charts rendering of their ability degree
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| 2:10 |
: How would you suppose a Gunnar extension would evaluate to Witt’s or Riley’s?
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| 2:10 |
: I feel it’d be fairly comparable, however i havent’ executed a deep dive to get extra exact than that
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| 2:10 |
: Bichette, Guerrero, Verlander, Bregman, Bassitt, Jimenez, Robert, and so forth.–may this be probably the most star energy we see traded on the deadline in current reminiscence?
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| 2:11 |
: Nicely, if all of those guys go (and sorry Chris Bassitt, however even in the event you don’t), sure
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| 2:11 |
: notably Robert, Bichette, Bregman
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| 2:11 |
: We’re not too far faraway from Juan Soto getting traded, and he’s an even bigger star than anybody listed her
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| 2:11 |
: but when all these guys went, positive
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| 2:11 |
: I do suppose that the Jays are gonna have so much to say about how the commerce deadline goes
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| 2:12 |
: and the White Sox possibly too? The rumor is that they’re asking for a package deal greater than what WAS received for Soto in the event that they commerce Robert, which for my part makes him unlikely to get dealt in any respect
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| 2:12 |
: however I can see why. 3.5 years of him sounds glorious
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| 2:13 |
: However…. he’s by no means hit 600 PA in a season, by no means hit 130 wRC+ in a full season, and since his debut he has 12 WAR to Soto’s 23
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| 2:13 |
: So it’s undoubtedly a longshot {that a} workforce would supply that a lot
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| 2:13 |
: How has David Fry not but earned an on a regular basis function?
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| 2:14 |
: I’d argue that he virtually has, simply that his on a regular basis function is ‘wherever another person has a relaxation’
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| 2:15 |
: in the event you take a look at his previous few weeks, he’s playign some mixture of left and catcher, with the very occasional DH, however the one individuals getting meaningfully extra PT are Ramirez and Josh Naylor
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| 2:15 |
: he’s getting the identical PT as dudes I’d name regulars like Freeman, Kwan, Gimenez, Brennan
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| 2:16 |
: it’s simply cut up everywhere
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| 2:16 |
: Just a few chats in the past somebody requested what different sports activities you take pleasure in watching, and also you mentioned, IIRC, tennis due to the drama between two people for 4 hours. I watched quite a lot of Roland Garros these final two weeks and agree. My query is, in the event you may watch a pitcher/hitter match up as if it had been a tennis match, which means one pitcher and one hitter for 100 pitches (specifics may be mentioned later), who would you wish to see? My vote: DeGrom v Bonds which appears chalky.
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| 2:16 |
: Oh man, what a match yesterday
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| 2:16 |
: I missed the ladies’s closing, but it surely seems that was wonderful b/c Swiatek is simply too good
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| 2:16 |
: however the males’s closing was nice
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| 2:17 |
: deGrom is half of mine for positive
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| 2:17 |
: Bonds is fairly thrilling as a foil
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| 2:17 |
: I by no means received to see Willie Mays play so he’s in all probability my decide although
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| 2:17 |
: or possibly you do one per period
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| 2:17 |
: think about Koufax/Mays on one channel, Maddux/Bonds on one other, deGrom/Soto on a 3rd
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| 2:17 |
: Am I on a sizzling streak or have I figured some issues out?
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| 2:17 |
: por que no los dos?
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| 2:18 |
: I’m endlessly gonna be a Gonzales truther b/c the primary school baseball mannequin I ever made thought he was the very best hitter in a era (sure, my park components may need been off)
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| 2:20 |
: I feel that he’s on an unsustainable contact sizzling streak, however that his strategy of elevating to maximise his contact is gonna work nice
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| 2:20 |
: and that there’s room for him to enhance his chase charge somewhat, which makes me suppose a tailwind in walks and favorable counts may offset a babip slide
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| 2:20 |
: Incredible enhancements to the participant pages – go alongside the reward to the remainder of the workers!
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| 2:20 |
: I’ve allow them to know
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| 2:21 |
: and yeah it’s nice!
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| 2:21 |
: assist us Obi-Wan Clemonobi, you’re our solely hope!
Nicely, aside from Aaron Choose… I traded Berrios and M. Harris for him when he was nonetheless in that stoop. |
| 2:21 |
: Looks like groups which might be profitable usually persist with replacement-level veterans for a very long time. I’m pondering of Nick Castellanos on the Phillies as an example, or Martin Maldonado with the Astros. Ought to profitable groups be faster to chop bait on replacement-level veterans? Or would the marginal acquire in not-especially-valuable wins not be well worth the potential clubhouse disruption?
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| 2:21 |
: This can be a actually exhausting query
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| 2:22 |
: I feel that basically groups would in all probability be higher off in the event that they moved on sooner than they really do, however much less rapidly than followers suppose they need to
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| 2:22 |
: The rationale for that’s {that a} false constructive right here hurts extra
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| 2:22 |
: like, transferring somebody once they weren’t really cooked
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| 2:22 |
: Is Mike Elias the very best GM in MLB? If not, who’s?
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| 2:22 |
: I’ve to offer it to Alex Anthopoulos
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| 2:23 |
: I imply, full respect to Elias
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| 2:23 |
: I’ve written a TON about O’s choice making up to now two years becuase they’ve had quite a lot of fascinating selections
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| 2:23 |
: and whereas Elias and co in all probability began out as being somewhat too conservative, long-term-focused, and unwilling to ever commerce prospects to enhance, they’ve come round admirably
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| 2:23 |
: clearly, their dev/acquisition workforce is unimaginable as effectively
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| 2:24 |
: so I’ve him charging up the rankings. Nevertheless it’s simply exhausting to knock what the Braves maintain doing
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| 2:24 |
: Why wouldn’t there be baseball in 50 years?
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| 2:24 |
: I imply, I don’t have a particular reply, however 50 years is a very long time
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| 2:24 |
: Tatis Jr. has been wanting higher these days…do you suppose he ever will get again to 2021 kind?
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| 2:24 |
: I feel it’s undoubtedly doable
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| 2:24 |
: the man is only a spectacular athlete
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| 2:25 |
: i don’t suppose he’s able to these energy numbers, as a result of I don’t suppose anybody is able to these energy numbers on a projected foundation
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| 2:25 |
: however by way of being a dynamic hitter with a 150-area wRC+ and glorious protection/baserunning to go together with it, sure
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| 2:25 |
: Is it practical to presume that Alonso is perhaps satisfactory in a nook OF and due to this fact have much more TV to contenders?
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| 2:25 |
: I hate to say it, however no
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| 2:26 |
: I don’t purchase that he may deal with a nook outfield spot
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| 2:26 |
: a)it’d should be left, b)I nonetheless suppose it’d be Hoskins-esque
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| 2:26 |
: What do you suppose has been the very best free agent contract of greater than 100 million? Scherzer with the Nats and Holliday with the Cardinals come to thoughts, however I’m positive I’m forgetting some good candidates.
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| 2:27 |
: these two are up there. Gerrit Cole is unquestionably within the working. A Rod and Harper are good ones
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| 2:27 |
: I’m wanting by a listing proper now
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| 2:28 |
: eh, there are a bunch! however Scherzer in all probability will get my vote for the general finest
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| 2:28 |
: Inform Jay Jaffe I heard what he mentioned about me final week. I’ll be in his chat tomorrow.
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| 2:29 |
:
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| 2:29 |
: SHOTA. IMANAGA.
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| 2:29 |
: If gamers beneath 5’7″ received an additional strike, would Altuve be the very best participant in baseball?
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| 2:29 |
: Are hitters who crush off pace and breaking balls gonna turn out to be extra priceless because the league strikes to fewer fastballs?
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| 2:29 |
: A bit. However I feel pitchers may also transfer to throw these guys extra fastballs, mainly simply specialize extra
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| 2:29 |
: so their principal edge shall be that pitchers work on their fastballs much less
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| 2:29 |
: Who’s going to win the Garrett Crochet sweepstakes and the way a lot of an overpay is it going to take?
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| 2:30 |
: I feel the O’s will find yourself profitable it, really, and that it’ll take two good Triple-A hitters
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| 2:30 |
: I didn’t make a mannequin for it, however I additionally thought Nick Gonzales was going to be the very best hitter in a era out of school as effectively haha
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| 2:30 |
: I imply his stats had been so outrageous that even once you modify for the truth that he was hitting on the moon, they had been nonetheless otherworldly
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| 2:30 |
: Willie’s line vs. Koufax. .278/.426/.536 with 5 HR’s in 97 AB’s.
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| 2:30 |
: Yeah, don’t inform me you wouldn’t wish to watch this
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| 2:30 |
: Crochet has already surpassed his profession excessive for innings in a 12 months, together with all his time in school. Would that meaningfully scale back his commerce worth for a contender seeking to purchase him this 12 months?
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| 2:32 |
: I feel my $155 mil contract turned out fairly effectively….
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| 2:32 |
: Re: finest free agent contracts for >$100 million, Wheeler. Harper additionally wanting good thus far.
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| 2:32 |
: Finest contract: Zack Wheeler with the Phillies?
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| 2:32 |
: Lmao chat title says that is the Ben Clemens Fangrpahs Chat
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| 2:32 |
: boy, I really don’t know if I can repair that
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| 2:32 |
: So, Ben… are you continue to fearful about Jose Ramirez?
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| 2:33 |
: as an alternative, i’m again to my article about how he’s a marvel
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| 2:34 |
: Skubal and Suarez are leaders for the Cy Younger awards proper now; who has the very best likelihood to dethrone certainly one of them?
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| 2:35 |
: Wheeler, Imanaga, Sale, Burnes, Glasnow, Gil maybe?
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| 2:35 |
: somebody may get sizzling within the second half and run away with it, even somebody I didn’t title
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| 2:35 |
: So Aaron Choose…. how is that this potential? After 2022 I feel all of us, pretty, thought he would by no means do something like that (200 > WRC+) once more. And but, right here he’s. Is he actually this degree of hitter? Is he the very best since Bonds?
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| 2:35 |
: So, I’m doing a mission for tomorrow the place I graph completely different hitters’ squared up charges by launch angle
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| 2:35 |
: as in, do you sq. up your grounders greater than your fly balls, are you constant throughout the board, and so forth.
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| 2:35 |
: Choose’s graph is simply ludicrous
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| 2:36 |
: it’s simply all squared up quick swings within the air
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| 2:36 |
: what a monswer
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| 2:36 |
: Do you suppose Jordan Walker ever reaches his 80 sport energy grade? He’s solely 22 but it surely simply looks like he can by no means raise the ball.
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| 2:37 |
: nah, I don’t. I do actually suppose he has 80 uncooked although
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| 2:37 |
: I’ve been enthusiastic about your article on buying and selling newly good relievers for prospects and the way it’s unrealistic for followers to anticipate a lot from them. I imply I’m positive there are all the time counterexamples for articles like that however I really feel just like the Effross commerce in 2022 exhibits that high-quality prospects can be found even for relievers with out a lot expertise
Effross had <60 profession MLB innings when traded and the Cubs received the Hayden Wesneski, the Yankees #7 prospect who was taking part in effectively within the excessive minors (and the Yankees had quite a lot of good prospects on the time) Is that this simply an exception or is Wesneski under the caliber of prospects you had been contemplating? Additionally in all probability price noting that this commerce has gone terribly for the Yankees so could dissuade comparable habits from different groups |
| 2:38 |
: Wesneski was undoubtedly under the caliber of prospects I’m speaking about, by our rankings, on the time
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| 2:38 |
: I’m wanting over the commerce roundup I wrote for that transaction
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| 2:38 |
: We had Wesneski at a 40+, and Seventeenth-best prospect within the NY system
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| 2:39 |
: so like, possibly I’m utilizing the improper prospect grades? However I feel that groups definitely discounted Yankee arms who instantly gained velo after being drafted
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| 2:39 |
: It doesn’t make sense for the Tigers to commerce Skubal proper?
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| 2:39 |
: I don’t suppose so
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| 2:39 |
: When are you planning on being good in the event you maintain buying and selling your good gamers?
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| 2:39 |
: if the jays find yourself really buying and selling Vlad, which groups are the highest touchdown spots? mariners? Making an attempt to determine who in competition wants a 1B/DH…is his getting a run at 3B an try to extend the marketplace for groups needing a 3B improve?
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| 2:40 |
: I undoubtedly suppose that they’re taking part in him at third to widen his potential touchdown spots. However I don’t suppose an enormous deal is gonna get executed, as a result of he’s Vlad Freaking Guerrero however 1b bats are simply not that priceless on the deadline
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| 2:40 |
: so there’s this bizarre scenario the place a commerce that values Vlad ‘pretty’ can be very unpopular in Toronto, each within the clubhouse and for followers
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| 2:41 |
: If Chris Sale continues to carry out on the degree he has then he ought to lastly get the Cy Younger as a sort of lifetime achievement award.
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| 2:41 |
: I agree with this. I erroneously assign a Cy Younger to Sale in my head on a regular basis
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| 2:41 |
: it’s loopy that he by no means gained it
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| 2:41 |
: Why do/did groups low cost new velo from Yanks prospects? Can’t they maintain on to it?
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| 2:42 |
: Simply that quite a lot of these guys haven’t seemed almost as sharp after leaving the pleasant confines of the Yanks minor league system. they did an incredible job buying and selling built-up pitchers for a ton of individuals within the lats few years. I feel they received Frankie Montas completely for pitchers, kind of
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| 2:42 |
: yeah Ken Waldichuk, Luis Medina, JP Sears
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| 2:42 |
: they did the identical for Soto
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| 2:43 |
: and I feel in quite a lot of these circumstances, they’re buying and selling like one-ish extra arm than you’d anticipate, and that’s as a result of groups are like ‘can AL these guys be that good?’
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| 2:43 |
: Ben, how outdated is the pre sport win chance mannequin as proven within the Stay Scoreboard? Has there been any emphasis on modifying it to boost predictions?
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| 2:44 |
: Actually relies upon what you imply by outdated. It’s undoubtedly easy. It simply builds projected run scoring and runs allowed primarily based on the posted sport lineups on either side (and a quite simple accounting for the bullpen)
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| 2:44 |
: Wheeler needs to be proper behind Scherzer on the very best free agent contracts, proper? Didn’t see his title talked about
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| 2:44 |
: Just a few different individuals pointed him out, and yeah
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| 2:44 |
: he undoubtedly counts
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| 2:44 |
: If Scherzer is the very best free agent contract above 100 million, is Strasburg the worst? The Nationals pitchers giveth and the Nationals pitchers taketh away.
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| 2:45 |
: Oh, certainly not, b/c the Nats virtually assuredly received quite a lot of insurance coverage funds again
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| 2:45 |
: Will Seiya Suzuki ever recover from the hump? Each time he seems to be like he’s about to interrupt out, he falls again to earth. The protection has been inconsistent. What’s your tackle his future?
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| 2:45 |
: man…. I nonetheless suppose he’ll
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| 2:45 |
: regardless of having been improper about this particular factor many instances
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| 2:45 |
: I completely consider in Seiya
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| 2:46 |
: and he seemed like he figured all of it out on the finish of final 12 months, after which nope
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| 2:46 |
: i imply, he’s nonetheless hitting, i’ll give him that
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| 2:46 |
: however I assumed he’d enhance on protection by greater than he has, and accidents have undoubtedly been a constant downside
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| 2:46 |
: I feel he’s what he’s at this level, mainly
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| 2:46 |
: leaguewide OPS common is under 700….time to panic or not but?
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| 2:46 |
: Yeah I’m panicking
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| 2:46 |
: baseball is much less enjoyable to observe when nobody scores runs
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| 2:47 |
: I assumed the Nats had been unable to get insurance coverage protection on the Strasburg contract on account of his harm historical past
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| 2:47 |
: There was no insurance coverage on the stras contract! He was uninsurable bc of his harm historical past
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| 2:47 |
: effectively that makes it worse!
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| 2:48 |
: Im conscious of the methodology. I run my very own mannequin utilizing the identical framework however I feel the PA Forecasting may very well be probably very flawed. The method of accounting for the correct variety of PA’s awarded to every workforce primarily based upon the standard of their opposition (i.e. an above common hitting workforce goes to accrue extra PA’s in a single sport in opposition to a under common pitching workforce than their season common), these items trigger extra Base Runs to be achieved . Any thought you guys are accounting for the PA interplay results?
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| 2:48 |
: Let’s simply say that’s low on our record, the positioning has had a ton of cool enhancements lately however I feel revamping our sport odds from like, fairly good (we’ve examined them and so they do alright) so as to add somewhat just isn’t highest precedence
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| 2:48 |
: that’s not likely my space, I’m only a typically helper
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| 2:48 |
: however I’d guess there are lots of issues we’d repair earlier than that
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| 2:49 |
: Unironically I would like MLB to rejuice the baseballs. I don’t get why we had been mad about that in 2019. 2017-2019 was a extremely enjoyable time for baseball
|
| 2:49 |
: Is there a abstract someplace on the positioning of the distinction between the three units of plate self-discipline metrics (statcast?pitch data/SIS)?
|
| 2:49 |
: can there be a abstract of the completely different sources of plate disciple metrics
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| 2:49 |
: There isn’t however I can provide you one right here
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| 2:49 |
: they measure the strike zone barely in another way
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| 2:49 |
: that’s the entire completely different
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| 2:50 |
: % likelihood Luis Robert goes on the deadline? And which groups are most definitely to get him?
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| 2:50 |
: I simply have it very low
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| 2:50 |
: thanks for answering my butchered query. Is yet another correct? SIS zone appears waaaay completely different
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| 2:50 |
: I dunno, actually! I similar to utilizing the identical one each time for consistency. So I have a tendency to simply use Statcast these daysb/c typically I’m pulling information immediately from Savant
|
| 2:50 |
: i’ve seen a conspiracy idea that the league messed with 2024 balls (shocker) to attempt to restrict how a lot breaking pitches transfer, with the unintended consequence being they don’t fly as far
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| 2:51 |
: I may completely see that
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| 2:52 |
: Concerning the low league vast OPS, what are your most well-liked approaches/ideas on how you can enhance it?
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| 2:53 |
: I would like extra full of life baseballs. I’d wish to see experimentation with decrease roster limits for pitchers, and restrictions on transactions involving pitchers who threw within the earlier sport
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| 2:53 |
: The traditional Nats world knowledge: The Nats received little or no, if something, again in Stras insurance coverage. (Supply: Svrluga reporting or educated guess, or a combo)
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| 2:53 |
: Are Savant stats (xwOBA, xERA, and so forth) helpful? Baseballsavant has mentioned that they’re meant to be descriptive, not predictive. I’ve examined them and located they’re really typically much less predictive than actual world outcomes. Constructing a statistical mannequin to foretell what “ought to have” occurred looks like an inherently flawed course of (an ideal mannequin would let you know would really occurred, a extremely unhealthy mannequin would haven’t any foundation in actuality). That looks like quite a lot of inherent statistical error, and if these numbers aren’t predictive then I don’t see how they’re really helpful. I additionally take excessive difficulty with some charge stats (like barrel%) being offered as per BBE as an alternative of per PA. This appears to punish hitters like Bellinger who minimize their Ok% for often weak contact however nonetheless hit roughly the identical variety of barrels per PA
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| 2:54 |
: Dan did one thing on this
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| 2:54 |
: It’s the season for peach roulette and my native grocery had them on sale final week. I risked $4 on 6 beauties and hit the jackpot. All had been good!
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| 2:54 |
: I misplaced at tomato roulette SO HARD yesterday
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| 2:54 |
: purchased some on the native fancy schmancy grocery retailer for a salad and so they had been abysmal
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| 2:54 |
: “baseball is much less enjoyable to observe when nobody scores runs”: And it grew to become private for me (be aware: that is what Jordan really mentioned)
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| 2:54 |
:
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| 2:55 |
: alright, I’m doing a little caretaking of the sick (spouse and canine, what a double whammy), so I’m gonna name it a day. Thanks a lot for chatting with me and I’ll speak to you once more subsequent week
|
Ben is a author at FanGraphs. He may be discovered on Twitter @_Ben_Clemens.
